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The square-root filter has an explicit conditioned finite-horizon error bound

Statement

Fix a finite horizon T and let (mk∣k,Pk∣k) and (mk−,Pk−) be the exact real-arithmetic prediction and update recursions of Exact linear-Gaussian Kalman filter. Let Sk=HkPk−HkT+Rk,Bk=Pk−HkT,vk=yk−Hkmk−. Suppose each innovation has a certified lower bound xTSkx≥μk∥x∥22(x∈Rpk),μk>0. Let the procedure Finite-horizon square-root Kalman filter by rectangular factors and QR output represented covariances P^k∣k=L^k∣kL^k∣kT and means m^k∣k. At step k, assume certified local bounds ∥P^k−−(FkP^k−1∣k−1FkT+Qk)∥2≤ekP,∥J^k−Jk(P^k−)∥2≤ekJ,∥m^k−−Fkm^k−1∣k−1∥2≤ekm,∥v^k−(yk−Hkm^k−)∥2≤ekv,∥L^11,kz^k−v^k∥2≤ρk,∥m^k∣k−(m^k−+L^21,kz^k)∥2≤eku, where Jk(P)=[HkPHkT+RkHkPPHkTP] and J^k=L^kL^kT is the joint covariance represented by the measurement QR blocks. Let fk≥∥Fk∥2, hk≥∥Hk∥2, bk≥∥Bk∥2, and rk≥∥vk∥2 be certified finite upper bounds. Choose Δ0≥∥m^0∣0−m0∥2+∥P^0∣0−P0∥2.

Define recursively ckH=1+hk2,εk=ckH(fk2Δk−1+ekP)+ekJ. If εk≤μk/2, put Kk#=1+2bk/μk,CkK=2μk(1+bkμk),CkP=2+4bkμk+2(bkμk)2, Ak=(1+hkKk#)fk+(CkKrk+CkP)ckHfk2, ηk=(1+hkKk#)ekm+(CkKrk+CkP)(ckHekP+ekJ)+Kk#(ekv+ρk)+eku,Δk=AkΔk−1+ηk. Then each S^k is positive definite, the factor update is defined, and, with zk∗=L^11,k−1v^k, ∥z^k−zk∗∥2≤ρkσmin⁡(L^11,k)≤2μk ρk, where σmin⁡(T)=min⁡∥x∥2=1∥Tx∥2. Also ∥m^T∣T−mT∣T∥2+∥P^T∣T−PT∣T∥2≤ΔT. Equivalently, ΔT=(∏k=1TAk)Δ0+∑j=1T(∏k=j+1TAk)ηj, where an empty product is 1. The bound is finite-horizon and explicitly conditioned on the innovation margins and data scales. It implies no uniform-in-time stability or accuracy claim.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The exact and computed finite-horizon recursions, local defect bounds in the Statement, and εk≤μk/2 for each step.

[F1]

The exact Kalman recursion uses Pk−=FkPk−1∣k−1FkT+Qk and mk∣k=mk−+BkSk−1vk, Pk∣k=Pk−−BkSk−1BkT. Exact linear-Gaussian Kalman filter

[F2]

The measurement QR blocks satisfy P^k∣k=D^k−B^kS^k−1B^kT and L^21,kL^11,k−1=B^kS^k−1 when S^k≻0. The block QR measurement update gives the canonical Kalman update

[F3]

Under its successful no-underflow QR and precision hypotheses (qu<1, and ru<1 for nonempty product inner dimensions), the prearray bound includes input-factor, rounded-product, and Householder QR contributions to ∥J^k−Jk(P^k−)∥2; the prediction array has the analogous bound for ekP. Product and Householder QR errors bound the represented joint covariance

[F4]

The Schur perturbation lemma proves inverse, gain and covariance estimates under Frobenius block-error bounds. Its resolvent and Schur expansions are algebraic identities; the operator-norm estimates needed here are derived directly in step 3.1. Innovation, gain, and posterior errors follow from joint covariance perturbations

[F5]

The operator norm is the maximum Euclidean stretch of a unit vector, and compatible operator norms are submultiplicative. The operator norm is zero on the zero domain and otherwise is max_{||v||=1} ||Tv|| The operator norm is submultiplicative and satisfies ||T^*T|| = ||T||^2

[F6]

If T is nonsingular and r=Tz^−v, then ∥z^−T−1v∥2≤∥r∥2/σmin⁡(T); if TTT⪰νI, then σmin⁡(T)≥ν. An innovation solve residual gives a singular-value forward bound

Proof

Given: The hypotheses in the Statement.

1.1F1F5givenalgebra

Put δk−1P=∥P^k−1∣k−1−Pk−1∣k−1∥2 and δk−1m=∥m^k−1∣k−1−mk−1∣k−1∥2. By [F1], [F5] and the prediction defect, ∥P^k−−Pk−∥2≤fk2δk−1P+ekP,∥m^k−−mk−∥2≤fkδk−1m+ekm.

2.1F3F5step 1.1algebra

Let CH=[HkI]. Direct block multiplication gives Jk(P^k−)−Jk(Pk−)=CH(P^k−−Pk−)CHT. For every x, ∥CHx∥22=∥Hkx∥22+∥x∥22≤(1+hk2)∥x∥22, so [F5] and the joint defect imply ∥J^k−Jk(Pk−)∥2≤(1+hk2)(fk2δk−1P+ekP)+ekJ. If δk−1P≤Δk−1, the right side is at most εk. Each of its observation, cross, and state blocks therefore has operator error at most εk: every block is obtained by left- and right-multiplying by coordinate projections of operator norm at most one, so [F5] and submultiplicativity give the bound.

3.1F2F4F5givenstep 2.1algebra

Assume δk−1P≤Δk−1 and suppress k. Write ES=S^−S, EB=B^−B, and ED=D^−P−. Step 2.1 bounds their operator norms by ε≤μ/2. Cauchy–Schwarz gives ∣xTESx∣≤ε∥x∥22, hence S^⪰(μ−ε)I≻0. The same inequality applied to y=Sx and y=S^x gives ∥S−1∥2≤μ−1 and ∥S^−1∥2≤β:=(μ−ε)−1≤2/μ. The resolvent identity S^−1−S−1=−S−1ESS^−1 then bounds the inverse difference by μ−1βε. Expanding the gain and Schur differences as in [F4], now applying operator-norm triangle and product inequalities throughout, yields ∥B^S^−1−BS−1∥2≤βε+bμ−1βε≤CKε, ∥P^k∣k−Pk∣k∥2≤ε+2bβε+b2μ−1βε+βε2≤CPε. Here [F2] identifies the represented posterior as the Schur complement, and βε2≤ε. Finally, ∥B^S^−1∥2≤(b+ε)β≤1+2b/μ=K#. These estimates use operator block bounds directly, without a Frobenius conversion.

4.1F1F2F6givenstep 1.1step 3.1algebra

The innovation residual and computed-innovation defect give ∥v^k−vk∥2≤hk∥m^k−−mk−∥2+ekv. Let zk∗=L^11,k−1v^k. By [F6] and the S^k⪰(μk/2)I bound from step 3.1, ∥z^k−zk∗∥2≤2/μk ρk, as included in the Statement. Because L^11,kz^k=v^k+ξk with ∥ξk∥2≤ρk, [F2] gives L^21,kz^k=B^kS^k−1(v^k+ξk). Subtract the exact mean equation in [F1], insert and subtract B^kS^k−1vk, and use step 3.1. The result is ∥m^k∣k−mk∣k∥2≤(1+hkKk#)(fkδk−1m+ekm)+CkKεkrk+Kk#(ekv+ρk)+eku.

5.1givenstep 1.1step 2.1step 3.1step 4.1inductionalgebra∎

Add the covariance bound in step 3.1 to the mean bound in step 4.1. Using δk−1P,δk−1m≤Δk−1 and the definition of εk yields ∥m^k∣k−mk∣k∥2+∥P^k∣k−Pk∣k∥2≤AkΔk−1+ηk=Δk. Induction from the stated Δ0 proves the bound for each k. Repeated substitution of the scalar recurrence gives the displayed product-and-sum formula at T. Since each assumption and step concerns only the finite indices 1,…,T, no uniform-in-time conclusion follows.

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