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TheoremStatement: Literature-sourcedProof: AI-adaptedPipeline-generatedprecheck passjudge pass (gpt-6-luna)
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Filtering and finite-horizon smoothing laws exist

Statement

Assume AC and a finite-horizon state-space model by standard-Borel state and observation spaces, an initial probability measure, and transition and observation probability kernels, as in General finite-horizon state-space models by kernels. Let PT be its finite-horizon path law. The initial filtering kernel is π0=μ0 on the singleton empty-history space. For each 1≤t≤T, data-indexed filtering and predictive kernels from Filtering, predictive, and smoothing laws in a finite-horizon state-space model exist. A data-indexed finite-horizon smoothing kernel for the full state path also exists, including when T=0. The claim is existence of conditional versions only; it asserts no density, filtering recursion, uniqueness on null observation histories, or numerical approximation.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: AC, a finite horizon T≥0, standard-Borel state spaces (Et,Et) and observation spaces (Ft,Ft), an initial probability measure and probability kernels as in the Statement.

[A1]

AC states that every family of nonempty sets has a choice function. The Axiom of Choice

[F1]

A finite-horizon model supplies standard-Borel state and observation spaces, an initial law, transition kernels, and observation kernels. General finite-horizon state-space models by kernels

[F2]

Under AC these data determine a unique probability law on the interleaved finite path space with the stated iterated-kernel formula. Finite-horizon state-space kernel law exists and is unique

[F3]

Every finite product of standard-Borel spaces, with its finite-product sigma-algebra, is standard Borel. Finite products of standard Borel spaces are standard Borel

[F4]

Under AC, a random element with standard-Borel target has a regular conditional distribution given any sub-sigma-algebra. Existence of regular conditional distributions for standard borel targets

[F5]

Under AC, an RCD given σ(Y) factors through a standard-Borel random element Y as a probability kernel on its observation space. Regular conditional kernels factor through a standard borel conditioning variable

[F6]

A data-indexed conditional law is a probability kernel whose composition with the conditioning random element is an RCD. Conditional law given a random element

[F7]

An RCD is an everywhere probability kernel satisfying all conditional event identities. Regular conditional distribution

[F8]

Filtering, predictive, and smoothing kernels have the definitions and conditioning sigma-algebras stated above. Filtering, predictive, and smoothing laws in a finite-horizon state-space model

Proof

Given: The hypotheses in the Statement.

1.1A1F1F2givenconstruct

If T=0 put ΩT:=E0; otherwise put ΩT:=E0×E1×F1×⋯×ET×FT. Let ZT be its finite-product sigma-algebra. By [F1] and [A1], [F2] supplies a probability measure PT on (ΩT,ZT) with the stated iterated-kernel law; the coordinate maps Xt,Yt and history maps Y1:t are measurable projections.

2.1F1F3step 1.1

The initial probability makes E0 nonempty; recursively, probability-kernel sections on each nonempty state space force the next state and observation spaces to be nonempty. By [F1] each factor is standard Borel, so [F3] makes E0×⋯×ET, every Et, and each history target F1:t standard Borel, including the empty-history singleton.

3.1A1F2F4step 1.1step 2.1

For each 1≤t≤T, apply [F4] under [A1] to Xt given σ(Y1:t) and given σ(Y1:t−1); their state targets and history targets are standard Borel by step 2.1. The path law [F2] has X0-marginal μ0, so the constant kernel π0((),⋅)=μ0 satisfies the conditional identities for the trivial empty history. Apply [F4] under [A1] to (X0,…,XT) given σ(Y1:T); its target is standard Borel by step 2.1.

4.1A1F2F4F5F6F7F8step 1.1step 2.1step 3.1∎

Each nonempty observation-history target is standard Borel by step 2.1, so [F5] under [A1] factors the RCDs from step 3.1 through their history maps; [F6]–[F8] identify the resulting probability kernels as the required conditional laws. The initial kernel was checked directly in step 3.1. AC is used only through [F2], [F4], and [F5]. No density or pointwise uniqueness on null histories is inferred.

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