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Filtering and finite-horizon smoothing laws exist
Statement
Assume AC and a finite-horizon state-space model by standard-Borel state and observation spaces, an initial probability measure, and transition and observation probability kernels, as in General finite-horizon state-space models by kernels. Let be its finite-horizon path law. The initial filtering kernel is on the singleton empty-history space. For each , data-indexed filtering and predictive kernels from Filtering, predictive, and smoothing laws in a finite-horizon state-space model exist. A data-indexed finite-horizon smoothing kernel for the full state path also exists, including when . The claim is existence of conditional versions only; it asserts no density, filtering recursion, uniqueness on null observation histories, or numerical approximation.
Facts & Assumptions
Given: AC, a finite horizon , standard-Borel state spaces and observation spaces , an initial probability measure and probability kernels as in the Statement.
AC states that every family of nonempty sets has a choice function. The Axiom of Choice
A finite-horizon model supplies standard-Borel state and observation spaces, an initial law, transition kernels, and observation kernels. General finite-horizon state-space models by kernels
Under AC these data determine a unique probability law on the interleaved finite path space with the stated iterated-kernel formula. Finite-horizon state-space kernel law exists and is unique
Every finite product of standard-Borel spaces, with its finite-product sigma-algebra, is standard Borel. Finite products of standard Borel spaces are standard Borel
Under AC, a random element with standard-Borel target has a regular conditional distribution given any sub-sigma-algebra. Existence of regular conditional distributions for standard borel targets
Under AC, an RCD given factors through a standard-Borel random element as a probability kernel on its observation space. Regular conditional kernels factor through a standard borel conditioning variable
A data-indexed conditional law is a probability kernel whose composition with the conditioning random element is an RCD. Conditional law given a random element
An RCD is an everywhere probability kernel satisfying all conditional event identities. Regular conditional distribution
Filtering, predictive, and smoothing kernels have the definitions and conditioning sigma-algebras stated above. Filtering, predictive, and smoothing laws in a finite-horizon state-space model
Proof
Given: The hypotheses in the Statement.
If put ; otherwise put . Let be its finite-product sigma-algebra. By [F1] and [A1], [F2] supplies a probability measure on with the stated iterated-kernel law; the coordinate maps and history maps are measurable projections.
The initial probability makes nonempty; recursively, probability-kernel sections on each nonempty state space force the next state and observation spaces to be nonempty. By [F1] each factor is standard Borel, so [F3] makes , every , and each history target standard Borel, including the empty-history singleton.
For each , apply [F4] under [A1] to given and given ; their state targets and history targets are standard Borel by step 2.1. The path law [F2] has -marginal , so the constant kernel satisfies the conditional identities for the trivial empty history. Apply [F4] under [A1] to given ; its target is standard Borel by step 2.1.
Each nonempty observation-history target is standard Borel by step 2.1, so [F5] under [A1] factors the RCDs from step 3.1 through their history maps; [F6]–[F8] identify the resulting probability kernels as the required conditional laws. The initial kernel was checked directly in step 3.1. AC is used only through [F2], [F4], and [F5]. No density or pointwise uniqueness on null histories is inferred.
Depends on
- The Axiom of Choice
- Filtering, predictive, and smoothing laws in a finite-horizon state-space model
- Standard Borel spaces
- The product sigma-algebra and its finite iterates
- Measure kernel and probability kernel
- Regular conditional distribution
- Conditional law given a random element
- General finite-horizon state-space models by kernels
- Finite-horizon state-space kernel law exists and is unique
- Finite products of standard Borel spaces are standard Borel
- Existence of regular conditional distributions for standard borel targets
- Regular conditional kernels factor through a standard borel conditioning variable
Used by
- Finite-dimensional data assimilation, forecasts, analyses, filtering, and smoothing Definition
- A scalar Gaussian state-space update by completing the square Example
- A two-state hidden Markov filter and smoother Example
- An impossible observation has zero evidence and only a filler filter value Example
- Bayes factorization of the smoothing backward kernel Lemma
- Exact state-space filtering recursion under dominated observations Theorem
- The finite-horizon linear-Gaussian Kalman filter is exact Theorem
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Sources
- Simo Särkkä and Lennart Svensson, Bayesian Filtering and Smoothing, 2nd ed., Chapter 6 (standard reference, not scraped)
- Arnaud Doucet and Adam M. Johansen, A Tutorial on Particle Filtering and Smoothing: Fifteen Years Later, §§2.1–2.3 (standard reference, not scraped)