Alphabeta Math
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Collinear columns identify a fitted mean, not its coefficients

Statement refuted

For every fixed-design matrix X, the map θ↦Xθ is injective; therefore the coefficient vector is determined by its fitted mean.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: An integer n≥1, the design matrix with two identical columns Xn=[1n 1n]∈Rn×2, the coefficient vectors θ1=(1,0) and θ2=(0,1), and centered additive noise whose law is the same at both parameter values and whose covariance is σ2In with σ2>0.

[F1]

The least-squares fitted vector is the projection of the observation onto the design column space (Fixed-design least squares as orthogonal projection).

[F2]

For centered noise with covariance σ2In, projection onto a fixed rank-r subspace has expected squared error equal to squared approximation bias plus rσ2 (Exact squared-error risk of an isotropic projection fit).

[F3]

Expectation is linear and preserves inequalities between integrable real random variables (Linearity, monotonicity, and the modulus bound for expectation).

[F4]

The risk of a procedure is the expected loss under its parameter law (Loss functions and risk).

Counterexample

1.1givenalgebra

Both coefficient vectors are distinct, but Xnθ1=1n=Xnθ2. Thus the asserted injectivity fails, and the observation distributions under θ1 and θ2 are identical because the additive noise law is common.

1.2F3F4givenalgebra

Let T(Y)∈R2 be any measurable coefficient estimator. For every a∈R2, completing squares gives ∥a−θ1∥22+∥a−θ2∥22=2∥a−(12,12)∥22+1≥1. If either coefficient risk is infinite, their maximum is already at least 1/2. Otherwise both squared losses are integrable under the common observation law. Their sum is integrable by [F3], so linearity and monotonicity in [F3] show that the sum of the two risks is at least 1. Thus their maximum is at least 1/2 for every n.

2.1F1F2F4step 1.2∎

The common fitted mean μ=1n lies in col⁡(Xn), which has rank 1. By [F2], its projected least-squares fit has expected squared fitted-value risk σ2, or σ2/n per observation by [F4]. This vanishes as n grows while the coefficient-risk lower bound in step 1.2 stays at least 1/2.

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