How statement and proof provenance work
The first chip identifies the source of the statement or construction; the second identifies the source of its local proof or verification.
- Literature-sourced: the exact statement appears in a cited source; only wording and notation differ.
- AI-adapted: a semantically identical restatement of literature-sourced material, modulo indexing, notation, and boundary cases adopted by the library.
- AI-generated: a genuinely novel statement formulated by AI, with no source for the claim itself.
These labels describe origin, not correctness: citations and verification chips remain separate evidence.
Best linear forecast from a finite history
Definition
Let be a weakly stationary real process on one probability space, with common mean , and let be integers. Its finite-history best linear forecast of from is the unique almost-sure class minimizing squared error over the affine subspace . Here denotes the almost-sure equivalence class of a square-integrable random variable, as in The space as the quotient by null functions, and the finite linear span uses Linear combination of a finite list, and the span as the smallest linear subspace containing . Weak stationarity and its moment conditions are those of Strict and weak stationarity for integer-indexed time series. Existence and uniqueness of the minimizing class are established by Existence and uniqueness of the finite-history predictor class ↗. The term best linear refers to this affine projection; it does not assert equality with a conditional expectation without additional hypotheses.
Depends on
Used by
- A finite-history conditional mean can be nonlinear Example
- A singular history covariance can have nonunique coefficients Example
- One-step and multistep forecasts for a causal AR(1) Example
- A Gaussian finite-history forecast is a conditional expectation Theorem
- Existence and uniqueness of the finite-history predictor class Theorem
- Finite-history forecast equations and error variance Theorem
Dependency tree · two levels
21 results within two dependency steps of this one, each drawn at its shortest distance from it. An arrow runs from a result to what uses it, so the chart reads left to right and ends at this result, which carries a heavier outline. Every node is a link to that result. Click elsewhere on the chart to enlarge it.
Sources
- Dewei Wang, STAT 720 Time Series Analysis, Section 5.2 (standard reference, not scraped)
- Nicolai Meinshausen, Time Series Analysis: Notes for the course HS 2022, Section 2.7 (standard reference, not scraped)