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A Bernoulli count is a sufficient summary for a finite-sample posterior

Statement

Let Θ={1/3,2/3} have prior mass 1/2 at each parameter. Given θ, observe three independent Bernoulli(θ) variables Y=(Y1,Y2,Y3), and summarize by S(Y)=Y1+Y2+Y3. For observed data y0=(1,1,0) and any 0≤ϵ<1, the ABC target based on S equals the full-data posterior, with masses 1/3 at 1/3 and 2/3 at 2/3. The count statistic is sufficient.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The finite prior-simulator model, the statistic S, and the conventions in Approximate Bayesian computation and the tolerance-conditioned target.

[F1]

A probability kernel is a probability measure in its event argument and a measurable function in its parameter argument. Measure kernel and probability kernel

[F2]

A statistic is a measurable map from data to its summary space. Statistics and estimators

[F3]

Sufficiency means that one parameter-independent probability kernel Q(t,D) reconstructs the conditional data law given the summary for every parameter. Sufficient statistics

[F4]

A Polish presentation is separable and has a compatible complete metric; the Borel sigma-algebra is generated by its open sets. Standard Borel spaces, Polish spaces are separable completely metrizable spaces, Separability: the existence of an at most countable dense subset, The Borel sigma-algebra of a topological space

[F6]

The ABC target conditions the prior-predictive law on the tolerance event, and rejection sampling returns that target when acceptance probability is positive. Approximate Bayesian computation and the tolerance-conditioned target, ABC rejection sampling, ABC rejection returns the tolerance-conditioned posterior

[F7]

Example

Take Θ={1/3,2/3}, Y={0,1}3, Π({θ})=1/2, K(θ,{y})=θS(y)(1−θ)3−S(y), and S(y)=y1+y2+y3.

Verification

Given: The finite prior-simulator model and summary in the Example.

1.1givenF4F5construct

Give each finite set its discrete metric d(x,x′)=0 for equality and 1 otherwise. Since Cauchy means that tail distances are eventually below every positive radius, a Cauchy sequence is eventually constant at radius 1/2; the metric is complete. Each finite set is countable and dense in itself, and its singletons are open, so its Borel sigma-algebra is the power set. The identity is a Borel isomorphism to this Polish presentation, so [F4] gives that Θ and Y are standard Borel. For R, [F5] gives a complete usual metric and countable dense subset Q; each metric ball is an ordinary open interval, so this metric induces the usual topology. Thus R is Polish and its usual Borel space is standard Borel by [F4].

2.1givenF1F2step 1.1algebra

The prior is proper. For each θ, summing the likelihood over the eight binary triples gives (θ+(1−θ))3=1, so K is a probability kernel by [F1]. The count S is measurable because its domain is finite.

3.1givenF1F3F7step 1.1step 2.1constructalgebra

For k∈{0,1,2,3} let Fk={y∈Y:S(y)=k} and define Q(k,D)=∣D∩Fk∣/(3k). For t∉{0,1,2,3} set Q(t,⋅)=δ(0,0,0). Each value is a probability measure by [F7], and for fixed D the map t↦Q(t,D) is Borel, so Q is a probability kernel. For every θ, D⊆Y, and Borel C⊆R, K(θ,D∩S−1(C))=∑k∈C∩{0,1,2,3}∣D∩Fk∣θk(1−θ)3−k =∑k∈C∩{0,1,2,3}Q(k,D)(3k)θk(1−θ)3−k=∫CQ(t,D)KS(θ,dt). This is the common-kernel criterion [F3], so S is sufficient.

3.2givenF6step 2.1algebra

The full-data likelihood at y0=(1,1,0) is θ2(1−θ). The prior-weighted likelihoods at 1/3 and 2/3 are respectively 1/27 and 2/27, so their normalization gives posterior masses 1/3 and 2/3. For 0≤ϵ<1, the condition ∣S(Y)−2∣≤ϵ is exactly S(Y)=2. Its likelihood is 3θ2(1−θ), three times the full-data likelihood at either parameter; the prior-weighted masses are 1/9 and 2/9, giving the same normalized posterior.

4.1givenF6step 3.1step 3.2∎

The event in step 3.2 has positive prior-predictive probability 1/3, so the ABC target is defined. By [F6], the rejection algorithm's accepted parameter has that target law; hence it equals the full-data posterior just computed. Explicitly, the summary likelihood differs from the full-data likelihood by the same positive factor 3 at both parameters, which cancels from the finite posterior normalization in step 3.2; sufficiency itself was proved independently in step 3.1.

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