How statement and proof provenance work
The first chip identifies the source of the statement or construction; the second identifies the source of its local proof or verification.
- Literature-sourced: the exact statement appears in a cited source; only wording and notation differ.
- AI-adapted: a semantically identical restatement of literature-sourced material, modulo indexing, notation, and boundary cases adopted by the library.
- AI-generated: a genuinely novel statement formulated by AI, with no source for the claim itself.
These labels describe origin, not correctness: citations and verification chips remain separate evidence.
A Bernoulli count is a sufficient summary for a finite-sample posterior
Statement
Let have prior mass at each parameter. Given , observe three independent Bernoulli variables , and summarize by . For observed data and any , the ABC target based on equals the full-data posterior, with masses at and at . The count statistic is sufficient.
Facts & Assumptions
Given: The finite prior-simulator model, the statistic , and the conventions in Approximate Bayesian computation and the tolerance-conditioned target.
A probability kernel is a probability measure in its event argument and a measurable function in its parameter argument. Measure kernel and probability kernel
A statistic is a measurable map from data to its summary space. Statistics and estimators
Sufficiency means that one parameter-independent probability kernel reconstructs the conditional data law given the summary for every parameter. Sufficient statistics
A Polish presentation is separable and has a compatible complete metric; the Borel sigma-algebra is generated by its open sets. Standard Borel spaces, Polish spaces are separable completely metrizable spaces, Separability: the existence of an at most countable dense subset, The Borel sigma-algebra of a topological space
The usual metric on is complete, the rationals are countable and dense, and its metric balls generate the usual topology. The reals are complete, is countably infinite, The rationals embed densely in the reals, as the set of functions , and , , are metrics on it, Open ball, closed ball and sphere in a metric space, The metric topology: a set is open when every one of its points has a ball around it inside the set; closed means open complement
The ABC target conditions the prior-predictive law on the tolerance event, and rejection sampling returns that target when acceptance probability is positive. Approximate Bayesian computation and the tolerance-conditioned target, ABC rejection sampling, ABC rejection returns the tolerance-conditioned posterior
A Dirac set function is a probability measure. The Dirac set function at a point, A Dirac set function is a probability measure
Example
Take , , , , and .
Verification
Given: The finite prior-simulator model and summary in the Example.
Give each finite set its discrete metric for equality and otherwise. Since Cauchy means that tail distances are eventually below every positive radius, a Cauchy sequence is eventually constant at radius ; the metric is complete. Each finite set is countable and dense in itself, and its singletons are open, so its Borel sigma-algebra is the power set. The identity is a Borel isomorphism to this Polish presentation, so [F4] gives that and are standard Borel. For , [F5] gives a complete usual metric and countable dense subset ; each metric ball is an ordinary open interval, so this metric induces the usual topology. Thus is Polish and its usual Borel space is standard Borel by [F4].
The prior is proper. For each , summing the likelihood over the eight binary triples gives , so is a probability kernel by [F1]. The count is measurable because its domain is finite.
For let and define . For set . Each value is a probability measure by [F7], and for fixed the map is Borel, so is a probability kernel. For every , , and Borel , This is the common-kernel criterion [F3], so is sufficient.
The full-data likelihood at is . The prior-weighted likelihoods at and are respectively and , so their normalization gives posterior masses and . For , the condition is exactly . Its likelihood is , three times the full-data likelihood at either parameter; the prior-weighted masses are and , giving the same normalized posterior.
The event in step 3.2 has positive prior-predictive probability , so the ABC target is defined. By [F6], the rejection algorithm's accepted parameter has that target law; hence it equals the full-data posterior just computed. Explicitly, the summary likelihood differs from the full-data likelihood by the same positive factor at both parameters, which cancels from the finite posterior normalization in step 3.2; sufficiency itself was proved independently in step 3.1.
Depends on
- ABC rejection sampling
- Approximate Bayesian computation and the tolerance-conditioned target
- Bayesian model as a prior and sampling kernel
- Measure kernel and probability kernel
- Probability measures and probability spaces
- The Dirac set function at a point
- Statistics and estimators
- Sufficient statistics
- A Dirac set function is a probability measure
- Standard Borel spaces
- The Borel sigma-algebra of a topological space
- Polish spaces are separable completely metrizable spaces
- Separability: the existence of an at most countable dense subset
- Open ball, closed ball and sphere in a metric space
- The metric topology: a set is open when every one of its points has a ball around it inside the set; closed means open complement
- $\mathbb{R}^n$ as the set of functions $n \to \mathbb{R}$, and $d_1$, $d_2$, $d_\infty$ are metrics on it
- The rationals embed densely in the reals
- $\mathbb{Q}$ is countably infinite
- The reals are complete
- ABC rejection returns the tolerance-conditioned posterior
Used by
Nothing in the library uses this result yet.
Dependency tree · two levels
93 results within two dependency steps of this one, each drawn at its shortest distance from it. An arrow runs from a result to what uses it, so the chart reads left to right and ends at this result, which carries a heavier outline. Every node is a link to that result. Click elsewhere on the chart to enlarge it.
Sources
- Aki Honkela, Computational Statistics I, Chapter 9 (standard reference, not scraped)
- Martin, Kumar, and Lao, Bayesian Modeling and Computation in Python, Chapter 8 (standard reference, not scraped)