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Delayed entry with a predictable risk process
Example
Fix and . Let be exponential with rate , put , and observe one event at . With and the natural filtration , use the left-open entry and right-closed event convention Then is predictable, is a continuous integrable compensator, and is a square-integrable martingale on . The value says the subject is not yet at risk at entry; records the subject as at risk immediately before the event jump.
Facts & Assumptions
Given: , , and a waiting time with density on , hence ; use the natural filtration of the one-event process.
Predictability is measurability for the sigma-algebra generated by , , and time-zero sets; it is closed under pointwise limits and products, and deterministic Borel time functions are predictable. (Progressively measurable and predictable processes)
Under the finite-horizon model contract, is the compensator when is a square-integrable martingale. (Simple counting-process intensity and compensator contract)
Conditional expectation is characterized by its event integrals on the conditioning sigma-algebra. (Conditional expectation as an ae class)
AC is inherited from conditional expectation in the continuous-time martingale convention. (The Axiom of Choice)
Verification
The process is adapted, càdlàg, has one unit jump, and starts at zero. On dyadic time grids on , left-step processes with value on are predictable by [F1] and converge pointwise to for each , so the left-limit process on is predictable. Since is deterministic Borel, the displayed formula makes predictable on ; its separately assigned value is predictable on the time-zero slice. This also gives and .
Direct integration gives , so is continuous and increasing, , and . Left Riemann sums make -measurable; its continuous adapted left-step approximations are predictable by [F1]. The exponential density gives , and for every the same calculation with replaced by gives . Thus the compensator integrability requirements in [F2] hold.
If and , then and are zero on ; if , then is trivial and step 1.2 gives . If and , the martingale increment is zero. On the event-free history gives , and the residual survival ratio is . With , the conditional expected event increment is , and the same residual density gives . Thus every conditional increment has mean zero. Finally , so is square-integrable and satisfies [F2].
Source notes
Mai Zhou writes the delayed-entry risk indicator in the same left-open form and is used only as supplemental intuition; the compensator verification above is local. Andersen–Borgan–Gill–Keiding's Example 4.1 treats random left truncation and the preserved multiplicative intensity with its stated conditioning premise.
Depends on
Used by
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Dependency tree · two levels
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Sources
- Mai Zhou, Notes on Counting Process in Survival Analysis, PDF pp. 6–7 (supplemental intuition only) (standard reference, not scraped)