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Delayed entry with a predictable risk process

Example

Fix 0≤L<T and λ>0. Let W be exponential with rate λ, put U=L+W, and observe one event at U. With Nt=1{U≤t} and the natural filtration Ft=σ(Ns:0≤s≤t), use the left-open entry and right-closed event convention Y0:=0,Yt:=1{L<t≤U}=1{t>L}(1−Nt−)(t>0),At=∫0tYsλ ds=λ((t−L)+∧W). Then Y is predictable, A is a continuous integrable compensator, and M=N−A is a square-integrable martingale on [0,T]. The value YL=0 says the subject is not yet at risk at entry; YU=1 records the subject as at risk immediately before the event jump.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: 0≤L<T, λ>0, and a waiting time W with density fW(w)=λe−λw on [0,∞), hence P(W>w)=e−λw; use the natural filtration of the one-event process.

[F1]

Predictability is measurability for the sigma-algebra generated by (s,t]×B, B∈Fs, and time-zero sets; it is closed under pointwise limits and products, and deterministic Borel time functions are predictable. (Progressively measurable and predictable processes)

[F2]

Under the finite-horizon model contract, A=∫Yλds is the compensator when N−A is a square-integrable martingale. (Simple counting-process intensity and compensator contract)

[F3]

Conditional expectation is characterized by its event integrals on the conditioning sigma-algebra. (Conditional expectation as an ae class)

[A1]

AC is inherited from conditional expectation in the continuous-time martingale convention. (The Axiom of Choice)

Verification

1.1F1givenconstruct

The process N is adapted, càdlàg, has one unit jump, and starts at zero. On dyadic time grids on [0,∞), left-step processes with value Ntj on (tj,tj+1] are predictable by [F1] and converge pointwise to Nt− for each t>0, so the left-limit process on (0,∞) is predictable. Since t↦1{t>L} is deterministic Borel, the displayed formula makes Y predictable on (0,∞); its separately assigned value Y0=0 is predictable on the time-zero slice. This also gives YL=0 and YU=1.

1.2F1F2givenalgebra

Direct integration gives At=λ((t−L)+∧W), so A is continuous and increasing, A0=0, and At≤λT. Left Riemann sums make At Ft-measurable; its continuous adapted left-step approximations are predictable by [F1]. The exponential density gives EAT=λ(∫0T−Luλe−λudu+(T−L)e−λ(T−L))=1−e−λ(T−L)<∞, and for every t>L the same calculation with T replaced by t gives EAt=1−e−λ(t−L)=P(U≤t)=ENt. Thus the compensator integrability requirements in [F2] hold.

2.1A1F1F2F3givenstep 1.2algebra∎

If s<L and t≤L, then N and A are zero on [s,t]; if s<L<t, then Fs is trivial and step 1.2 gives E[Mt∣Fs]=0=Ms. If s≥L and U≤s, the martingale increment is zero. On {U>s} the event-free history gives W>s−L, and the residual survival ratio is P(W−(s−L)>u∣W>s−L)=e−λu. With h=t−s, the conditional expected event increment is 1−e−λh, and the same residual density gives λE[min⁡(h,W−(s−L))∣W>s−L]=λ(∫0huλe−λudu+he−λh)=1−e−λh. Thus every conditional increment has mean zero. Finally ∣Mt∣≤1+λT, so M is square-integrable and satisfies [F2].

Source notes

Mai Zhou writes the delayed-entry risk indicator in the same left-open form and is used only as supplemental intuition; the compensator verification above is local. Andersen–Borgan–Gill–Keiding's Example 4.1 treats random left truncation and the preserved multiplicative intensity with its stated conditioning premise.

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