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Counting-process compensators, integrals, brackets — Examples

1 · Prerequisites

2 · Summary

These examples check the one-event exponential compensator and its step integral isometry, use the left-open entry convention for a delayed-entry risk process, and show that a shared event jump creates a nonzero cross bracket. The delayed-entry calculation verifies the stated exponential model; it does not claim informative entry is ignorable. The tied-jump example identifies the precise hypothesis needed for orthogonality.

3 · Logical flowchart

4 · Definitions, theorems and proofs

None yet.

5 · Examples, counterexamples and false statements

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Delayed entry with a predictable risk process

Example

Fix 0≤L<T and λ>0. Let W be exponential with rate λ, put U=L+W, and observe one event at U. With Nt=1{U≤t} and the natural filtration Ft=σ(Ns:0≤s≤t), use the left-open entry and right-closed event convention Y0:=0,Yt:=1{L<t≤U}=1{t>L}(1−Nt−)(t>0),At=∫0tYsλ ds=λ((t−L)+∧W). Then Y is predictable, A is a continuous integrable compensator, and M=N−A is a square-integrable martingale on [0,T]. The value YL=0 says the subject is not yet at risk at entry; YU=1 records the subject as at risk immediately before the event jump.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: 0≤L<T, λ>0, and a waiting time W with density fW(w)=λe−λw on [0,∞), hence P(W>w)=e−λw; use the natural filtration of the one-event process.

[F1]

Predictability is measurability for the sigma-algebra generated by (s,t]×B, B∈Fs, and time-zero sets; it is closed under pointwise limits and products, and deterministic Borel time functions are predictable. (Progressively measurable and predictable processes)

[F2]

Under the finite-horizon model contract, A=∫Yλds is the compensator when N−A is a square-integrable martingale. (Simple counting-process intensity and compensator contract)

[F3]

Conditional expectation is characterized by its event integrals on the conditioning sigma-algebra. (Conditional expectation as an ae class)

[A1]

AC is inherited from conditional expectation in the continuous-time martingale convention. (The Axiom of Choice)

Verification

1.1F1givenconstruct

The process N is adapted, càdlàg, has one unit jump, and starts at zero. On dyadic time grids on [0,∞), left-step processes with value Ntj on (tj,tj+1] are predictable by [F1] and converge pointwise to Nt− for each t>0, so the left-limit process on (0,∞) is predictable. Since t↦1{t>L} is deterministic Borel, the displayed formula makes Y predictable on (0,∞); its separately assigned value Y0=0 is predictable on the time-zero slice. This also gives YL=0 and YU=1.

1.2F1F2givenalgebra

Direct integration gives At=λ((t−L)+∧W), so A is continuous and increasing, A0=0, and At≤λT. Left Riemann sums make At Ft-measurable; its continuous adapted left-step approximations are predictable by [F1]. The exponential density gives EAT=λ(∫0T−Luλe−λudu+(T−L)e−λ(T−L))=1−e−λ(T−L)<∞, and for every t>L the same calculation with T replaced by t gives EAt=1−e−λ(t−L)=P(U≤t)=ENt. Thus the compensator integrability requirements in [F2] hold.

2.1A1F1F2F3givenstep 1.2algebra∎

If s<L and t≤L, then N and A are zero on [s,t]; if s<L<t, then Fs is trivial and step 1.2 gives E[Mt∣Fs]=0=Ms. If s≥L and U≤s, the martingale increment is zero. On {U>s} the event-free history gives W>s−L, and the residual survival ratio is P(W−(s−L)>u∣W>s−L)=e−λu. With h=t−s, the conditional expected event increment is 1−e−λh, and the same residual density gives λE[min⁡(h,W−(s−L))∣W>s−L]=λ(∫0huλe−λudu+he−λh)=1−e−λh. Thus every conditional increment has mean zero. Finally ∣Mt∣≤1+λT, so M is square-integrable and satisfies [F2].

Source notes

Mai Zhou writes the delayed-entry risk indicator in the same left-open form and is used only as supplemental intuition; the compensator verification above is local. Andersen–Borgan–Gill–Keiding's Example 4.1 treats random left truncation and the preserved multiplicative intensity with its stated conditioning premise.

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A tied jump produces a nonzero cross bracket

Example

Let W∼Exp⁡(λ), λ>0, and put Nt1=Nt2=1{W≤t} with common natural filtration. For each component use Y0i:=1 and Yti:=1{t≤W}=1−(Ni)t− for 0<t≤T, Ati=λ(t∧W), and Mi=Ni−Ai. Both component contracts hold, but the components jump together. For every t>0, [M1,M2]t=Nt,⟨M1,M2⟩t=At, which are nonzero with positive probability. This is why the no-simultaneous-jump condition is required for zero cross brackets.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: λ>0, a waiting time W with density fW(w)=λe−λw on [0,∞) and tail P(W>w)=e−λw, and the common filtration generated by the two identical one-event processes.

[F1]

A unit-jump process with At=∫0tYsλds is in the model class when N−A is a square-integrable martingale and EAT<∞. (Simple counting-process intensity and compensator contract)

[F2]

For that contract, [M]t=Nt and ⟨M⟩t=At. (Brackets of a compensated simple counting process)

[F3]

Optional cross brackets are jump-product sums; predictable cross brackets are their continuous predictable martingale compensators. (Optional and predictable brackets for counting-process martingales)

[F4]

Predictability is generated by time-zero sets and rectangles (s,t]×B with B∈Fs; it is preserved under pointwise limits, products, and deterministic Borel time functions. (Progressively measurable and predictable processes)

[A1]

AC is inherited through conditional expectation in the model contract. (The Axiom of Choice)

Verification

1.1A1F1F4givenconstruct

Each Ni has one unit jump and Y0i=1. For t>0, Yti=1−(Ni)t− is predictable by dyadic left-step approximation using [F4]; its time-zero value is predictable on the time-zero generator. Direct integration gives Ati=λ(t∧W); left Riemann sums make it adapted, and continuous left-step approximations make it predictable by [F4]. The exponential density gives EATi=λ(∫0Tuλe−λudu+Te−λT)=1−e−λT<∞. If W≤s, the martingale increment is zero; if W>s, the residual waiting time R=W−s is exponential and, for h=t−s, E[Nt−Ns∣Fs]=1−e−λh=E[At−As∣Fs] on that event, since λ(∫0huλe−λudu+he−λh)=1−e−λh. Hence each Mi is an all-pairs martingale; ∣Mti∣≤1+λT makes it square-integrable and verifies [F1].

2.1A1F2F3givenstep 1.1∎

The two component martingales are identical, so [F3] gives [M1,M2]=[M,M]. By [F2], [M,M]=N and ⟨M,M⟩=A, hence the pair has the same cross-bracket values. For every t>0, P(Nt=1)=1−e−λt>0 and At=λ(t∧W)>0 almost surely because W>0 almost surely; neither cross-bracket process is identically zero when simultaneous jumps are allowed.

Source notes

Tian states zero cross brackets under a no-simultaneous-jump hypothesis; Andersen–Borgan–Gill–Keiding impose the same condition for multivariate counting processes. This tied-process construction shows the boundary case directly.

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One exponential event: compensator and isometry

Example

Let W∼Exp⁡(λ) with λ>0, Nt=1{W≤t}, and Y0:=1, Yt:=1{t≤W}=1−Nt− for 0<t≤T. On [0,T] the compensator and martingale are At=∫0tλYs ds=λ(t∧W),Mt=Nt−At. They satisfy the finite-horizon model contract, and the constant step integrand H=1 gives E[MT2]=E[AT]=1−e−λT.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: λ>0, a waiting time W with density fW(w)=λe−λw on [0,∞) and tail P(W>w)=e−λw, the natural filtration Ft=σ(Ns:0≤s≤t), and a finite horizon T>0.

[F1]

Predictability is measurability for the sigma-algebra generated by (s,t]×B, B∈Fs, and time-zero sets; it is preserved under pointwise limits and products, and 1[0,τ] is predictable for a stopping time τ. (Progressively measurable and predictable processes)

[F2]

The model contract requires M=N−A to be a square-integrable martingale and EAT<∞. (Simple counting-process intensity and compensator contract)

[F3]

For bounded predictable step H, the elementary integral isometry gives E(∫0TH dM)2=E∫0TH2dA. (Isometry for elementary predictable counting-process integrals)

[F4]

Under the stated contract, [M]t=Nt and ⟨M⟩t=At. (Brackets of a compensated simple counting process)

[A1]

AC is inherited through conditional expectation in the martingale interface. (The Axiom of Choice)

Verification

1.1F1F2givenconstruct

The process N has one unit jump and Y0=1. For t>0, Yt=1−Nt− is predictable by dyadic left-step approximation, while its time-zero value is predictable on the time-zero generator. Therefore At=λ(t∧W) is continuous, increasing, starts at zero, and is adapted by left Riemann sums; continuous adapted left-step approximations make it predictable by [F1]. The exponential density gives EAT=λ(∫0Tuλe−λudu+Te−λT)=1−e−λT<∞, verifying the compensator hypotheses in [F2].

1.2A1F2givenalgebra

Fix 0≤s<t≤T. On {W≤s} both N and A have stopped changing, so Mt−Ms=0. On {W>s}, P(W−s>u∣W>s)=P(W>s+u)/P(W>s)=e−λu; with h=t−s, the conditional event increment is 1{W>s}(1−e−λh), and the residual exponential density gives the same compensator increment 1{W>s}λ(∫0huλe−λudu+he−λh)=1{W>s}(1−e−λh). Thus E[Mt∣Fs]=Ms for every pair, and ∣Mt∣≤1+λT makes M square-integrable and verifies [F2].

2.1F2F3F4givenstep 1.1algebra∎

The process H=1 on (0,T] and H0=0 is a bounded predictable step integrand with elementary integral MT−M0=MT. By [F3], EMT2=EAT=1−e−λT; by [F4], its optional and predictable brackets are N and A.

Source notes

Tian's Units 8–9 use the one-event exponential model to illustrate the compensator and bracket. The calculations here verify the all-pairs martingale contract directly and use the locally proved elementary isometry.

Sources