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One exponential event: compensator and isometry

Example

Let W∼Exp⁡(λ) with λ>0, Nt=1{W≤t}, and Y0:=1, Yt:=1{t≤W}=1−Nt− for 0<t≤T. On [0,T] the compensator and martingale are At=∫0tλYs ds=λ(t∧W),Mt=Nt−At. They satisfy the finite-horizon model contract, and the constant step integrand H=1 gives E[MT2]=E[AT]=1−e−λT.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: λ>0, a waiting time W with density fW(w)=λe−λw on [0,∞) and tail P(W>w)=e−λw, the natural filtration Ft=σ(Ns:0≤s≤t), and a finite horizon T>0.

[F1]

Predictability is measurability for the sigma-algebra generated by (s,t]×B, B∈Fs, and time-zero sets; it is preserved under pointwise limits and products, and 1[0,τ] is predictable for a stopping time τ. (Progressively measurable and predictable processes)

[F2]

The model contract requires M=N−A to be a square-integrable martingale and EAT<∞. (Simple counting-process intensity and compensator contract)

[F3]

For bounded predictable step H, the elementary integral isometry gives E(∫0TH dM)2=E∫0TH2dA. (Isometry for elementary predictable counting-process integrals)

[F4]

Under the stated contract, [M]t=Nt and ⟨M⟩t=At. (Brackets of a compensated simple counting process)

[A1]

AC is inherited through conditional expectation in the martingale interface. (The Axiom of Choice)

Verification

1.1F1F2givenconstruct

The process N has one unit jump and Y0=1. For t>0, Yt=1−Nt− is predictable by dyadic left-step approximation, while its time-zero value is predictable on the time-zero generator. Therefore At=λ(t∧W) is continuous, increasing, starts at zero, and is adapted by left Riemann sums; continuous adapted left-step approximations make it predictable by [F1]. The exponential density gives EAT=λ(∫0Tuλe−λudu+Te−λT)=1−e−λT<∞, verifying the compensator hypotheses in [F2].

1.2A1F2givenalgebra

Fix 0≤s<t≤T. On {W≤s} both N and A have stopped changing, so Mt−Ms=0. On {W>s}, P(W−s>u∣W>s)=P(W>s+u)/P(W>s)=e−λu; with h=t−s, the conditional event increment is 1{W>s}(1−e−λh), and the residual exponential density gives the same compensator increment 1{W>s}λ(∫0huλe−λudu+he−λh)=1{W>s}(1−e−λh). Thus E[Mt∣Fs]=Ms for every pair, and ∣Mt∣≤1+λT makes M square-integrable and verifies [F2].

2.1F2F3F4givenstep 1.1algebra∎

The process H=1 on (0,T] and H0=0 is a bounded predictable step integrand with elementary integral MT−M0=MT. By [F3], EMT2=EAT=1−e−λT; by [F4], its optional and predictable brackets are N and A.

Source notes

Tian's Units 8–9 use the one-event exponential model to illustrate the compensator and bracket. The calculations here verify the all-pairs martingale contract directly and use the locally proved elementary isometry.

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