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Euler discretization bias and path-to-path variance

Example

Let X0 take values in {1,2} with probability 1/2 each, and consider the random-initial-value ODE x′(t)=x(t) on 0≤t≤1. Its exact endpoint is X1=eX0, and the target is θ=E[X12]. Define the one-step explicit Euler rule at h=1 by X1h=X0+hX0=2X0. For an integer M≥2, independently simulate initial values X0(1),…,X0(M) with this law, set Yr:=(2X0(r))2, and return Y‾M:=M−1∑r=1MYr.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The ODE, initial-value law, one-step Euler rule, and independent path simulations specified in the Example. Compute the discretized-target bias and the path-simulation variance.

[F1]

A scalar error ledger uses successive same-scale references and defines each stage error as the adjacent difference. (Successive statistical and computational error targets)

[F2]

The total error along a finite scalar reference chain is the sum of its signed stage errors. (Pathwise error decomposition along a reference chain)

[F3]

For M≥2 IID finite-variance replicate outputs with variance τ2, the variance of their average is τ2/M. (Unbiased variance estimate from independent computation replicates)

[F4]

For real a<b, a real function continuous on [a,b] and differentiable on (a,b) satisfies f(b)−f(a)=f′(c)(b−a) for some c∈(a,b). (The mean value theorem, as the case g(x)=x of Cauchy's: for f continuous on [a,b] with a<b and differentiable on (a,b) there is c∈(a,b) with f(b)−f(a)=f′(c)(b−a))

[F5]

e=exp⁡(1) for exp⁡(x)=∑k=0∞xk/k!. (The real exponential function and the number e by a power series)

[F6]

exp⁡ is differentiable with (exp⁡)′=exp⁡. (The exponential function is smooth and (exp⁡)′=exp⁡)

[F8]

IID means common distribution and mutual independence. (Identical distribution and IID families)

[F9]

A function differentiable at a limit point is continuous there. (A function differentiable at c is continuous at c)

[F10]

Applying measurable maps coordinatewise to independent random variables preserves independence. (Measurable coordinatewise functions preserve independence)

[F11]

Products of measurable real-valued functions and their real scalar multiples are measurable. (Arithmetic and lattice operations preserve measurability whenever they are defined)

[A1]

X0 equals 1 and 2 with probabilities 1/2 each; an ODE solution x is defined and differentiable on an open interval containing [0,1], satisfies x′=x, and has initial value x(0)=X0.

[A2]

The discretization is the explicitly defined one-step rule X1h=X0+hX0 at h=1; the M simulated initial values are IID copies of X0.

Verification

1.1givenA1F4F5F6F7F9algebra

By [F5] and [F6], x∗(t)=X0exp⁡(t) solves the stated initial-value problem. For any solution x, put f(t)=exp⁡(−t) and u(t)=f(t)x(t). By [F6] and [F7], f′(t)=−f(t). For h≠0 with t+h∈[0,1], u(t+h)−u(t)h=f(t+h)x(t+h)−x(t)h+x(t)f(t+h)−f(t)h. As h→0, continuity of f and differentiability of x,f make the right side tend to f(t)x′(t)+x(t)f′(t)=0 because x′=x. Thus u′=0 on (0,1). The solution x is continuous at 0,1 by [F9], so u is continuous on [0,1]; [F4] gives u(1)=u(0)=X0. The same derivative calculation applied to the continuous product v(t)=f(t)exp⁡(t) gives v′=0 on (0,1); [F4] then yields exp⁡(−1)e=v(1)=v(0)=1, since exp⁡(0)=1 by [F5]. Multiplying u(1)=X0 by e therefore gives x(1)=eX0. By [F5] and E[X02]=(1+4)/2=5/2, the exact target is θ=e2E[X02]=(5/2)e2.

1.2givenA1A2F5algebra

The Euler update gives X1h=2X0, so the exact-arithmetic discretized target is θh=E[4X02]=10. Since e=∑k=0∞1/k!>2, its bias is 10−(5/2)e2<0.

1.3givenA1A2F8algebra

By [F8] and [A2], a single simulated squared Euler endpoint is 4X02, equal to 4 or 16 with equal probability. Its mean is 10 and its variance is ((4−10)2+(16−10)2)/2=36.

2.1F3F8F10F11step 1.2step 1.3A2algebra

By [F11], z↦4z2 is measurable; by [F8] and [A2] the initial values are IID, so [F10] makes the outputs independent. Their common two-point law is computed in step 1.3, hence they are IID. Then [F3] gives variance 36/M for their average, while the discretization bias in step 1.2 remains 10−(5/2)e2 for every M.

3.1F1F2step 1.1step 1.2step 2.1algebra∎

For a realized path average Y‾M, the ledger chain θ,θh,Y‾M gives Y‾M−θ=(θh−θ)+(Y‾M−θh) by [F1] and [F2], separating discretization bias from path-simulation error.

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