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A finite-horizon likelihood-ratio test supermartingale
Example
Fix an integer . Let and let be uniform on , so the coordinate variables are independent Bernoulli. Let be the product Bernoulli law and let . The likelihood ratio of to on is with the empty product . It is a nonnegative test martingale, hence a nonnegative test supermartingale, for the simple null .
Facts & Assumptions
Given: , the finite sample space, laws, filtration, and process in the Example. Assume AC for the test-supermartingale convention.
Nonnegative test supermartingales: the process must be real-valued, adapted, integrable, nonnegative, supermartingale under the null, and have initial expectation at most one.
The Axiom of Choice: AC supplies the conditional-expectation convention used in F1.
Verification
For a prefix with , the ratio of its -probability to its -probability is , because every prefix has positive probability. Thus the displayed process is the finite-prefix likelihood ratio; after time it is held constant.
Each is a finite nonnegative function of the first coordinates, hence is adapted and integrable. Conditional on any prefix before time , the next bit is fair and , so . For the process is constant.
Since , steps 1.1 and 2.1 verify every condition in F1 under the null law ; hence is a test martingale and a test supermartingale.
Depends on
Used by
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