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A measurable loss can have an infinite normalizer

Example

Let Θ=N with its power-set sigma-algebra, and put ak=(1/2)k+1 for k∈N. Define the prior π:=∑k=0∞akδk, where δk is the Dirac measure at k. The geometric-series formula gives ∑k≥0ak=1, so π is a probability measure. Define the real-valued loss ℓ(k):=log⁡ak. At temperature w=1, every unnormalized atom has mass ake−ℓ(k)=1, and the normalizer is infinite; therefore the loss update is not defined.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The von Neumann natural numbers N, their power-set sigma-algebra, weights ak=(1/2)k+1, and Dirac measures δk.

[F1]

Generalized Bayes loss update and temperature: at fixed w>0, Z=∫e−wℓ dπ must be finite and positive for the update to be defined.

[F2]

A countable discrete measurable space is standard Borel: every nonempty at-most-countable set with its power-set sigma-algebra is standard Borel.

[F3]

Finite, countably infinite, countable, uncountable: a set equinumerous with N is at-most-countable.

[F4]

The natural numbers N (von Neumann): 0∈N and N is closed under successor.

[F5]

Nonnegative scalar multiples and countable weighted sums of measures are measures: a countable nonnegative weighted sum of measures on one measurable space is a measure.

[F6]

The Dirac set function at a point: δk(A)=1 when k∈A and is zero otherwise.

[F7]

A Dirac set function is a probability measure: each δk is a probability measure.

[F8]

Probability measures and probability spaces: a probability measure has total mass one.

[F9]

The principle of mathematical induction: a property holding at zero and preserved by successor holds for all natural numbers.

[F10]

Integer powers am: b0=1 and bk+1=bkb for natural k.

[F12]

The natural logarithm as the inverse of the exponential function: log⁡ is inverse to exp⁡ on (0,∞).

[F13]

The exponential is positive and satisfies exp⁡(−x)=1/exp⁡(x): exp⁡(t)>0 and exp⁡(−t)=1/exp⁡(t).

[F14]

Nonnegative simple measurable functions: a finite nonnegative linear combination of indicators of measurable sets is a nonnegative simple measurable function.

[F15]

The nonnegative Lebesgue integral: the nonnegative integral is the supremum of the integrals of nonnegative simple minorants, with values in [0,+∞].

[F16]

The integral of a nonnegative simple function: the integral of a simple function represented on disjoint measurable sets is the sum of its coefficient times the measure of each set.

[F17]

The nonnegative integral agrees with the simple integral on simple functions: the nonnegative integral of a simple function equals its simple integral.

[F18]

Monotonicity and nonnegative homogeneity of the nonnegative integral: if 0≤f≤g, then ∫f dπ≤∫g dπ.

[F20]

Every complete ordered field is Archimedean: in a complete ordered field, for every x there is a natural n≥1 with x<n.

[F21]

Absolute value in an ordered field: if b≥0, then ∣b∣=b.

[F22]

Ordered field: products of positive reals are positive.

[F24]

Laws of finite sums and finite products: finite sums scale by a real constant, ∑k<ncuk=c∑k<nuk.

[F25]

Series, partial sums, convergence and the sum, divergence, and the tail series: a convergent series sums to the limit of its finite partial sums.

[F26]

Algebra of limits: sums, scalar multiples, products and quotients: scaling a convergent sequence by a fixed real constant scales its limit by that constant.

[F27]

A series of nonnegative terms converges iff its partial sums are bounded, and then the sum is their supremum: for nonnegative terms, the usual convergent series sum is the supremum of its finite partial sums.

[F28]

Series in the nonnegative extended real line: the nonnegative extended sum is the supremum of its finite partial sums.

[F29]

Nonnegative scalar multiples and countable weighted sums of measures: the countable weighted sum is evaluated pointwise by the nonnegative extended sum of its weighted measures.

Verification

1.1F3F4F2given

The identity map shows N is equinumerous with itself, hence at-most-countable by [F3]; [F4] makes it nonempty. Therefore [F2] shows (Θ,P(Θ)) is standard Borel.

1.2F21F10F23F22F9F19givenalgebra

Put b=1/2. Ordered-field arithmetic gives 0<b<1, so [F21] gives ∣b∣=b<1. The powers are positive: b0=1>0 by [F10] and [F23], and if bk>0, then bk+1=bkb>0 by [F10] and [F22]. Induction [F9] gives ak=bk+1>0 for every k.

2.1F11F10F24F25F26F27F28step 1.2algebra

By [F11], ∑k=0∞bk=1/(1−b). For every N, recursion [F10] and finite-sum scaling [F24] give ∑k<N+1ak=∑k<N+1bk+1=b∑k<N+1bk. The partial sums of ∑bk converge to 1/(1−b) by [F11] and [F25]; therefore [F26] gives ∑k=0∞ak=b/(1−b)=1. By [F27] and [F28], this usual series sum is also the nonnegative extended sum of the coefficients used in the weighted measure.

2.2F12F13step 1.2given

Since ak>0, ℓ(k)=log⁡ak is finite. Every inverse image of a Borel subset of R is a subset of N, hence is in P(N); therefore ℓ is measurable. By [F12]–[F13], e−ℓ(k)=1/ak, so the normalizer is Z=∫e−ℓ dπ.

3.1F5F7F6F28F29step 2.1F8algebra

By [F5] and [F7], π=∑k≥0akδk is a measure. Its total mass is π(Θ)=∑k≥0akδk(Θ)=∑k≥0ak=1 by [F6], [F28], [F29], and step 2.1, so [F8] makes π a probability. For each k, [F6] gives π({k})=ak.

4.1F14F13F16F17step 3.1F18F15step 2.2algebra

For each N∈N, set sN:=∑k=0Nak−11{k}. It is a nonnegative simple function by [F14], and 0≤sN≤e−ℓ: there is equality at k≤N, and for k>N the left side is zero while e−ℓ(k)>0 by [F13]. By [F16]–[F17] and step 3.1, ∫sN dπ=∑k=0Nak−1π({k})=N+1. Thus [F18] yields Z≥N+1 for every N.

5.1F19F20step 4.1F15F1contradiction∎

If Z were finite, [F19]–[F20] would give N∈N, N≥1, with Z<N. Step 4.1 gives Z≥N+1, a contradiction. Since [F15] places Z in [0,+∞], it follows that Z=+∞. The finite-positive condition in [F1] therefore fails, so no generalized Bayes update is defined.

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