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A phi-irreducible chain can fail to converge from a pi-null start

Statement

On X={1,2,…} define P(1,{1})=1 and, for x≥2, P(x,{1})=x−2,P(x,{x+1})=1−x−2. Then P is ϕ-irreducible and aperiodic for ϕ=δ1, has invariant law π=δ1, and is not Harris recurrent. From every x≥2, Pn(x,⋅) fails to converge to π in total variation.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The state space and transition rule in the Statement.

[F1]

Phi-irreducibility for a general-state Markov kernel: every set of positive ϕ-measure is reachable from every state with positive probability at some finite time.

[F2]

Aperiodicity for a general-state Markov kernel: a cyclic decomposition needs at least two positive-π classes.

[F3]

Harris recurrence relative to an irreducibility measure: Harris recurrence requires almost-sure hitting of every positive-ϕ set from every start.

[F4]

Invariant and stationary distribution for a Markov kernel: an invariant probability is unchanged by one transition.

[F5]

Total variation distance for probability laws: total variation is the supremum over measurable events.

[F6]

Measure kernel and probability kernel: a transition kernel has probability sections and measurable evaluations.

Verification

Given: The transition rule and facts [F1]–[F5].

1.1F1F2F4F6given

The only nonempty ϕ-positive set contains state 1. From 1 it is already reached, and from x≥2 the one-step probability of reaching it is x−2>0. Thus the chain is ϕ-irreducible. The point mass δ1 is invariant because state 1 is absorbing. Since π has only one positive-mass state, no partition into d≥2 classes all of positive π-mass exists; the chain is aperiodic under [F2].

1.2F3algebra

Starting from x≥2, the probability of avoiding absorption through time n is sn(x)=∏j=xx+n−1(1−1j2)=x−1xx+nx+n−1. The identity follows by writing 1−j−2=((j−1)/j)((j+1)/j) and canceling adjacent factors. Thus sn(x)→(x−1)/x>0, so the probability of ever hitting the ϕ-positive set {1} is less than one. The chain is not Harris recurrent by [F3].

2.1F4F5step 1.2∎

At time n, the mass outside {1} is exactly sn(x). By [F5], ∥Pn(x,⋅)−δ1∥TV=∣Pn(x,{1})−1∣=sn(x), which has positive limit. Therefore the stationary-a.e. convergence conclusion cannot be strengthened to all starts without Harris recurrence.

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