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A one-sided normal likelihood ratio at the boundary

Example

Assume the Axiom of Choice (The Axiom of Choice). Let Xi be iid N(μ,1), let the full parameter space be Θ=R, and test H0:μ≤0 against the full model at the boundary value μ=0. The likelihood-ratio statistic converges to (G∨0)2, where G∼N(0,1); by Chi-square laws, including zero degrees this is 12χ02+12χ12, not the ordinary χ12 law.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The normal-location model, the one-sided null, and iid sampling at μ=0.

[A1]

AC is used by the normal-law convention and the iid central limit theorem (The Axiom of Choice).

[F1]

N(0,1) has density ϕ(x)=(2π)−1/2e−x2/2; affine transformations define N(μ,1) (Standard normal and normal laws).

[F2]

χ02=δ0 and, for k≥1, χk2 is the law of the sum of squares of k independent standard normals (Chi-square laws, including zero degrees).

[F3]

The local-cone likelihood-ratio theorem gives the Fisher-distance difference when QMD, local set convergence, a uniform local quadratic expansion and tight local maximizers hold (Likelihood-ratio limit for local cones in a QMD model).

[F4]

The iid central limit theorem applies to real observations with finite nonzero variance (Lindeberg-Levy iid central limit theorem); the definition of iid includes mutual independence (Identical distribution and IID families).

[F5]

A continuous function of a weakly convergent random variable converges in distribution (Continuous mapping theorem). Weak convergence also gives the closed-set probability upper bound (Portmanteau theorem).

[F6]

Expectation is integration against the law, and variance is the centered second moment (Expectation of a nonnegative or integrable random variable, Moments, variance, and covariance on a probability space).

[F7]

QMD at an interior point is the square-root-density score expansion in L2(μ) with squared remainder o(∥h∥22) (Quadratic-mean differentiability at a parameter).

[F8]

Gaussian even moments for Brownian increments: under AC, a centered normal variable of variance 1 has second and fourth moments 1 and 3. To instantiate the supplier, take the centered standard normal variable Y as Xt, the constant 0 as Xs, and the labels s=0, t=1, then use m=1,2; no Brownian process is needed.

[F9]

Integrating against a density agrees with integrating the product: integration against a density is integration of the product.

[F10]

A continuous function on [a,b] is Riemann integrable, by Heine-Cantor and Riemann's criterion: continuous functions on compact parameter intervals are bounded and Riemann integrable.

[F11]

A bounded Riemann integrable function on a closed bounded interval is Lebesgue measurable and has the same integral: under Countable Choice, bounded Riemann-integrable functions have the same Lebesgue integral on a compact interval; the assumed AC supplies this premise.

[F12]

Lebesgue outer measure, Lebesgue measurability and Lebesgue measure are unchanged by translation: translation preserves Lebesgue measurability and measure. For a nonnegative measurable function, translating each simple function below it gives a bijection of the simple minorants with unchanged integrals; taking the defining supremum therefore preserves its nonnegative integral.

[F13]

Cauchy-Schwarz inequality for L2: the integral of an absolute product is bounded by the product of the L2 norms.

[F14]

Tonelli's theorem for nonnegative measurable functions on a sigma-finite product: nonnegative product-measurable functions on sigma-finite spaces admit either order of integration.

Verification

Given: The model and hypotheses above. Let ℓn(μ)=∑i=1nlog⁡ϕ(Xi−μ).

In this unit-variance example put σ=1.

1.1F1F8F9F12F13givenalgebraF6

Put qμ(x)=(2πσ2)−1/4e−(x−μ)2/(4σ2). Direct differentiation gives qμ′=(x−μ)qμ/(2σ2) and qμ′′=((x−μ)2/(4σ4)−1/(2σ2))qμ. Its square is a polynomial times pμ=qμ2. By [F8] and [F9], ∫(x−μ)2pμ dx=σ2 and ∫(x−μ)4pμ dx=3σ4, so ∥qμ′′∥22=3/(16σ4)<∞. Also sμ=2qμ′/qμ=(x−μ)/σ2 has second moment 1/σ2. The identity qa′′(x)=q0′′(x−a) and [F12] give the same norm for every real shift a. With σ=1, Cauchy–Schwarz [F13] gives E∣X−μ∣≤1, so the even normal density [F1] gives E(X−μ)=0 and Var⁡(X)=1. The two-variable functions (x,v)↦qμ+v′′(x) and (x,u)↦qμ+u′(x)−qμ′(x) are continuous. To verify the needed product measurability locally, the rectangles (a,b)×(c,d) with rational endpoints form a countable base of R2: inside any open ball about a point, density of the rationals gives a rational rectangle containing that point and contained in the ball. Every open subset is therefore the union of the subfamily of these rectangles contained in it, hence a countable union of measurable product rectangles. Thus preimages of open subsets under these continuous functions belong to B(R)⊗B(R), and also to the product of the Lebesgue sigma-algebras. Their squares and restrictions to compact parameter intervals are consequently product measurable, as required by Tonelli below.

2.1F10F15F11step 1.1given

For fixed x, the functions v↦qμ+v′′(x) and u↦qμ+u′(x)−qμ′(x) are continuous on each compact interval. By [F10] they are Riemann integrable, by [F15] their integrals are respectively qμ+u′(x)−qμ′(x) and qμ+t(x)−qμ(x)−tqμ′(x), and [F11] identifies these with their Lebesgue integrals under the assumed AC. Reversed endpoints give the same identities for negative u,t.

3.1F13F14F7step 1.1step 2.1algebra

Cauchy–Schwarz [F13] on the interval between 0 and u, then Tonelli [F14] and step 1.1, gives ∥qμ+u′−qμ′∥22≤u2∥q0′′∥22. The second identity of step 2.1 and another Cauchy–Schwarz/Tonelli application give ∥qμ+t−qμ−tqμ′∥22≤∣t∣∫0∣t∣u2∥q0′′∥22du=∣t∣4∥q0′′∥22/3=o(t2). For negative t use qμ−u′ on the length-∣t∣ interval; the same first bound holds. This proves QMD with the explicitly supplied normal densities, score sμ, and positive information 1/σ2 by [F7].

4.1A1F3F4F5givenstep 1.1choosealgebrastep 3.1

Under μ=0, the local sets are Cn=R and C0n=(−∞,0] for every n, so they are already their limiting closed convex cones. Direct expansion gives ℓn(h/n)−ℓn(0)=hZn−h2/2 with Zn=nXˉn and zero remainder. The full and null local maximizers are Zn and min⁡(0,Zn). By [F4] and the mean and variance from step 1.1, Zn⇒G∼N(0,1). Choose a large R with P(∣G∣≥R) small and apply [F5] to the closed tails to see that both maximizer sequences are tight. Thus all hypotheses of [F3] hold with I=1.

5.1A1F1F2F5step 4.1givenalgebra∎

Completing the square in ℓn(μ) gives the full MLE Xˉn and the constrained MLE min⁡(0,Xˉn). Hence the finite-sample likelihood-ratio statistic is Tn=2[ℓn(Xˉn)−ℓn(min⁡(0,Xˉn))]=n(Xˉn∨0)2=(Zn∨0)2. By [F5], Tn⇒(G∨0)2. Its CDF is 0 for t<0 and P(G≤t)=Φ(t) for t≥0, so it has mass 1/2 at zero. By symmetry, P(G2≤t)=2Φ(t)−1 for t≥0, while [F1] gives P(G=0)=0; hence (G∨0)2 has the mixture law 12δ0+12L(G2)=12χ02+12χ12, not χ12.

Remarks

The null tangent is a half-line rather than a linear subspace. The atom at zero is the concrete failure of the regular interior chi-square calibration at this boundary.

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