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LemmaStatement: Literature-sourcedProof: AI-adaptedPipeline-generatedjudge pass (gpt-6-luna)
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  • Literature-sourced: the exact statement appears in a cited source; only wording and notation differ.
  • AI-adapted: a semantically identical restatement of literature-sourced material, modulo indexing, notation, and boundary cases adopted by the library.
  • AI-generated: a genuinely novel statement formulated by AI, with no source for the claim itself.

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The augmented ABC target has the tolerance posterior as its parameter marginal

Statement

Under the hypotheses of Augmented ABC tolerance target with Zϵ>0, the Θ-marginal of Π~ϵ is the tolerance-conditioned law Πϵ(⋅∣s0) defined in Approximate Bayesian computation and the tolerance-conditioned target.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: A prior probability Π, simulator probability kernel K, measurable summary S, observed summary s0, and ϵ≥0 with Zϵ=pϵ(s0)>0.

[F1]

Augmented ABC tolerance target: H(C)=∫K(θ,Cθ)Π(dθ), Aϵ=S−1(Bϵ(s0)), and Π~ϵ(C)=Zϵ−1∫C1Aϵ(y) dH.

[F2]

Approximate Bayesian computation and the tolerance-conditioned target: with M the law of (θ,S(Y)) under the prior-simulator joint law, M(A×D)=∫AK(θ,S−1(D))Π(dθ), pϵ(s0)=M(Θ×Bϵ(s0)), and Πϵ(A∣s0)=M(A×Bϵ(s0))/pϵ(s0).

[F3]

A prior and model kernel define a joint law: for measurable A⊆Θ and D⊆Y, H(A×D)=∫AK(θ,D)Π(dθ).

Proof

Given: The hypotheses in the Statement.

1.1F1F3given

For each A∈T, [F1] and the rectangle formula [F3] give Π~ϵ(A×Y)=Zϵ−1∫AK(θ,Aϵ)Π(dθ).

2.1F1F2step 1.1algebra∎

Since Aϵ=S−1(Bϵ(s0)), [F2] gives M(A×Bϵ(s0))=∫AK(θ,Aϵ)Π(dθ) and pϵ(s0)=Zϵ; substitution into [F2] makes step 1.1 exactly Πϵ(A∣s0) for every measurable A, so the parameter marginal is the tolerance posterior.

Depends on

Used by

Dependency tree · two levels

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Sources