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Tail bound for finite sums of independent signs

Statement

Let ξ1,…,ξm be independent random variables with values in {−1,+1}, let c1,…,cm∈R, and put V=∑i=1mci2 and S=∑i=1mci(ξi−Eξi). For every t>0, if V>0 then P(S≥t)≤e−t2/(2V),P(S≤−t)≤e−t2/(2V),P(∣S∣≥t)≤2e−t2/(2V). If V=0, then S=0 almost surely and all three tail probabilities are zero. The empty sum m=0 is included with V=S=0.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: A finite independent family of sign-valued random variables, real coefficients, and t>0.

[A1]

No choice axiom is used; every construction and product is finite.

[F1]

Independence means independence of the sigma-algebras generated by the random variables. Independent random elements.

[F2]

Expectations are Lebesgue integrals against the probability law. Expectation of a nonnegative or integrable random variable.

[F3]

For a nonnegative random variable U and a>0, P(U≥a)≤E[U]/a. Markov's inequality for random variables.

[F5]

A finite union of events has probability at most the sum of its event probabilities. The finite union bound.

[F6]

For independent real random variables and nonnegative Borel functions, the expectation of their finite product factors, including extended-valued expectations. Expectations factor over finite products of independent random variables.

Proof

1.1givenF2F4algebra

For one sign variable ξ with p=P(ξ=+1) and μ=Eξ=2p−1, put ψ(s)=log⁡Ees(ξ−μ). The two-point formula gives ψ(s)=log⁡(pes+(1−p)e−s)−sμ, so ψ(0)=ψ′(0)=0 and ψ′′(s)=4p(1−p)(pes+(1−p)e−s)2≤1. The inequality follows from 4ab≤(a+b)2 with a=pes and b=(1−p)e−s. Integrating the second-derivative bound twice from 0 to s, in either direction, gives ψ(s)≤s2/2 for every real s; if p=0 or p=1, ψ is identically zero and the same bound holds.

2.1step 1.1F4F6algebraF1

Apply step 1.1 to each ξi with s=λci. The functions x↦eλci(x−Eξi) are nonnegative Borel functions, so [F6] factors their expectations; [F4] combines the exponentials. Thus EeλS=∏i=1mEeλci(ξi−Eξi)≤exp⁡ ⁣(λ22∑i=1mci2)=eλ2V/2 for every real λ.

3.1F3step 2.1algebra

Suppose V>0 and choose λ=t/V>0. Markov's inequality [F3] applied to eλS and the MGF bound in step 2.1 give P(S≥t)≤e−λt+λ2V/2=e−t2/(2V). Applying the same argument to −S gives P(S≤−t)≤e−t2/(2V).

4.1F5step 3.1algebra∎

By [F5], P(∣S∣≥t)≤P(S≥t)+P(S≤−t), which gives the stated two-sided bound from step 3.1. If V=0, every ci=0, so S=0 almost surely; the empty-sum case is the same.

References

Markov's inequality for random variables: the MGF bound is converted to a tail by Markov's inequality.

Expectations factor over finite products of independent random variables: factors the expectations of the nonnegative exponential functions of the independent signs.

The finite union bound: combines the two one-sided tails.

Depends on

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