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Consistency of the weighted logrank variance estimate
Statement
Assume the two-group common-hazard model with finite-horizon predictable risk processes and the explicit square-integrable martingale contracts , ; assume no simultaneous event jumps. Let , , and assume the uniform risk-fraction convergence and in probability on , with on an empty risk set (as proved in Uniform convergence of the risk-set treatment fraction). Let uniformly in probability, where the predictable weights are uniformly bounded and is deterministic. Suppose event times are continuous, so every observed failure time has almost surely. Here is the plug-in statistic defined in Two-group logrank and weighted logrank scores; the claim is its asymptotic consistency and does not assert an exact finite-sample conditional variance law. Here are deterministic nonnegative Borel functions, , , and . Define Then the weighted plug-in variance sum from Two-group logrank and weighted logrank scores satisfies
Facts & Assumptions
Given: The model and convergence hypotheses in the Statement, with finite horizon and .
Assume the Axiom of Choice inherited from the counting-process martingale and integral interfaces. (The Axiom of Choice)
Two-group logrank and weighted logrank scores: and is the stated conditional risk-set variance.
Two-group logrank and weighted logrank scores: the plug-in contribution is for , and zero for .
Uniform convergence of the risk-set treatment fraction: and uniformly in probability on .
Simple counting-process intensity and compensator contract: for the aggregate simple process the compensator is and is a square-integrable martingale under the separately stated model contract.
Brackets of a compensated simple counting process: is a martingale and its predictable bracket is .
L² extension of the predictable counting-process integral: for predictable with finite compensator energy, .
Proof
Since , the variance formula [F2] reduces to when . If , both groups' product is zero and [F1] assigns variance zero. Thus
Uniform convergence of to and of to , together with their uniform bounds, gives . Because , replacing the integrand in step 1.1 by changes the normalized integral by at most this supremum, hence by .
The aggregate process is simple because no two subjects jump simultaneously, and . The deterministic is bounded and predictable, so [F4]-[F6] give Hence the martingale part of the normalized variance sum tends to zero in probability.
The compensator part of that sum is Uniform convergence of to and make this converge in probability to . Since , the limit is . Combining this with steps 2.1 and 3.1 proves the assertion.
Depends on
- Two-group logrank and weighted logrank scores
- Uniform convergence of the risk-set treatment fraction
- Simple counting-process intensity and compensator contract
- L² counting-process integral when the limit exists
- Brackets of a compensated simple counting process
- L² extension of the predictable counting-process integral
- The Axiom of Choice
Used by
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Sources
- Lu Tian, STAT331 Unit 13: Large Sample Theory for 2-Sample Tests, PDF pp. 4-7 (standard reference, not scraped)
- Michal Kulich, NMST531 Censored Data Analysis: Extended Course Notes, §5.3-5.4, PDF pp. 59-62 (standard reference, not scraped)