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A narrow probability curve defines its space-time measure

Statement

Let T>0 and let t↦μt be a narrowly continuous curve of Borel probability measures on Rd, where narrow continuity means convergence against every bounded continuous real test function. For a product-Borel set E⊆[0,T]×Rd, write Et={x:(t,x)∈E} and define M(E)=∫0Tμt(Et)dt. Then t↦μt is a probability kernel, M is a finite Borel measure of total mass T, and for every nonnegative product-Borel f, ∫f dM=∫0T∫f(t,x)dμt(x)dt.

Statement references

Facts & Assumptions

Given: T>0 and a narrowly continuous curve (μt)t∈[0,T] of Borel probability measures on Rd.

[F1]

A Borel probability law on a Polish space is a countably additive measure on its Borel sigma-algebra with total mass one. Borel probability law on a polish space

[F2]

Narrow convergence of Borel probabilities implies the open-set lower bound μ(G)≤lim inf⁡nμn(G) for every open G. Portmanteau theorem

[F3]

A lambda-system containing a pi-system contains the sigma-algebra it generates. Dynkin's pi-lambda theorem

[F4]

A probability kernel has a probability measure in every section and measurable evaluations in its source variable. Measure kernel and probability kernel

[F5]

The Borel sigma-algebra on a product of second-countable spaces equals the product sigma-algebra, which is generated by measurable rectangles. Borel sigma-algebra of a product of second-countable spaces The product sigma-algebra and its finite iterates

[F6]

Sections of product-measurable sets are measurable. Every section of a product-measurable set is measurable

[F7]

For a probability kernel K and a nonnegative product-measurable function f, s↦∫f(s,t)K(s,dt) is measurable. Measurability of integration against a kernel

[F8]

Increasing limits pass through nonnegative Lebesgue integrals. Monotone convergence for the integral

[F9]

Every nonnegative measurable function has an increasing simple approximation; nonnegative simple integrals are finite sums of their level-set measures; increasing limits of measurable functions are measurable. Every nonnegative measurable function is the increasing limit of simple measurable functions The nonnegative Lebesgue integral The integral of a nonnegative simple function Additivity of the nonnegative Lebesgue integral Closure properties of measurable functions used by the integral

[F10]

A measure is zero on the empty set and countably additive on disjoint measurable unions. Measures on sigma-algebras

Proof

technique · direct
1.1givenF2

Let G⊆Rd be open and let tn→t. Narrow continuity gives μtn⇒μt, so [F2] gives μt(G)≤lim inf⁡nμtn(G). Thus t↦μt(G) is lower semicontinuous and hence Borel measurable.

2.1givenF1F3F4F9step 1.1

Let D be the Borel sets A⊆Rd for which t↦μt(A) is measurable. It contains the whole space because each section is a probability. If A∈D, then μt(Ac)=1−μt(A), so Ac∈D. For pairwise disjoint Aj∈D, countable additivity gives μt(⋃jAj)=lim⁡N→∞∑j=0Nμt(Aj), a measurable increasing limit. Hence D is a lambda-system. The open sets form a pi-system generating the Borel sigma-algebra and belong to D by step 1.1, so [F3] and [F9] give D=B(Rd). Together with [F4], this proves that t↦μt is a probability kernel.

3.1F5F6F7step 2.1

By [F5], a product-Borel set E is measurable for B([0,T])⊗B(Rd). Its sections Et are Borel by [F6]. Since t↦μt is a probability kernel by step 2.1, [F7] applied to 1E shows that t↦μt(Et) is measurable. Thus M(E)=∫0Tμt(Et)dt is defined; M(∅)=0 and M([0,T]×Rd)=∫0T1dt=T.

4.1F1F8F9F10step 3.1∎

If Ej are disjoint product-Borel sets, their sections are disjoint and μt((⋃jEj)t)=∑jμt((Ej)t). Integrating the increasing partial sums and using [F8] gives M(⋃jEj)=∑jM(Ej); with step 2.1 this makes M a finite Borel measure. For an indicator, the iterated-integral formula is the definition of M; finite nonnegative simple combinations give it for simple functions. For arbitrary nonnegative product-Borel f, use [F9] to choose sn↑f and apply [F8] to both M and the time-section integrals. This proves ∫f dM=∫0T∫f(t,x)dμt(x)dt.

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