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A countable mixture likelihood-ratio vector is minimal sufficient

Statement

Assume AC. Let (Pk)k≥1 be a countable family of probability measures on a standard Borel space (X,A), let wk>0 with ∑kwk=1, and put Q=∑kwkPk. Choose finite-valued Borel versions fk=dPk/dQ, changed to zero on one common Q-null set. Then T(x)=(fk(x))k≥1 is a Borel statistic into [0,∞)N and is minimal sufficient. For every standard Borel sufficient statistic S, there is a Borel φ with T=φ(S) Q-almost surely.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: AC, the countable family, positive mixture weights, and the common reference mixture Q.

[A1]

The Axiom of Choice: AC permits selection of RN representatives and the countable product construction; only countably many null exceptional sets are combined.

[F1]

Sufficient statistics: sufficiency supplies one parameter-independent conditional kernel.

[F2]

Minimal sufficient statistics and Minimal sufficient sigma-fields: minimality requires inclusion modulo common model-null sets in every sufficient sub-sigma-field; a common conditional kernel supplies the common bounded conditional expectations for its generated sigma-field.

[F3]

Measure kernel and probability kernel: the common conditional kernel has probability-measure sections and measurable evaluations.

[F4]

Standard Borel spaces: Borel maps and countable Borel codings define standard Borel statistics.

[F7]

Existence of regular conditional distributions for standard borel targets and Regular conditional kernels factor through a standard borel conditioning variable: the Q-law admits a regular conditional law given T as a probability kernel on the target of T.

[F8]

Doob-Dynkin factorization through the sigma-algebra generated by a function and Standard borel spaces admit bimeasurable real codings: a real σ(S)-measurable function factors through a standard Borel statistic by coding its target in R; coordinatewise this factors a sequence-valued map.

[F9]

Every nonnegative measurable function admits an explicit increasing sequence of simple approximations and Monotone convergence for the integral: conditional identities and weighted mixture identities extend from indicators to nonnegative measurable functions by increasing simple approximations and monotone convergence.

Proof

1.1A1F4F5F6givenconstruct

Since Pk≪Q, [F5] gives finite-valued nonnegative Borel densities fk after changing each on its null set. Their exceptional sets have countable union N with Q(N)=0; reset all fk to zero on N. By [F6], [0,∞)N is standard Borel. The coordinate maps are Borel, hence T is Borel.

2.1F1F3F5F7F9step 1.1givenalgebra

By [F7], choose a conditional-law kernel K for X given T under Q. Its defining identity extends from indicator weights to nonnegative Borel weights by [F9]. By [F5], Pk(A∩T−1C)=∫1A1C(T)fk dQ. Since Tk=fk, applying the weighted conditional identity with weight 1C(t)tk gives Pk(A∩T−1C)=∫CK(t,A)tkQT(dt); taking A=X gives PkT(C)=∫CtkQT(dt). Thus K works under every Pk, so [F1] gives sufficiency.

2.2A1F1F3F5F9givenconstructstep 1.1

Let S be any other standard Borel sufficient statistic with common kernel L. The same kernel is a conditional law under Q: its conditional identity follows by multiplying the identity under Pk by wk and summing the nonnegative integrals, with [F9] justifying passage to the countable sum. It is also the common conditional law under each Pk. Let QS and PkS be the image laws. The identity PkS≪QS follows from Pk≪Q; write rk=dPkS/dQS. Disintegrating with L and extending the conditional identity to the nonnegative weight rk by [F9] gives, for every A, Pk(A)=∫L(s,A)rk(s)QS(ds)=∫Ark(S(x))Q(dx). RN uniqueness yields fk=rk(S) Q-almost surely.

3.1F2F5F6F8step 2.2givenconstruct

Apply [F5] to each coordinate to obtain Borel rk (modified on QS-null sets if necessary). The map φ(s)=(rk(s))k≥1 is Borel because its coordinate maps are Borel; step 2.2 gives T=φ(S) Q-almost surely. Since every weight is positive, Q(C)=0 iff Pk(C)=0 for every k. For every Borel D in the target of T, the sets T−1(D) and S−1(φ−1(D)) differ only on {T≠φ(S)}, which is Q-null by step 2.2. Therefore σ(T)⊆σ(S) modulo the family-null ideal, establishing the asserted comparison with S.

4.1A1F2F5F9step 1.1step 2.1givenconstruct∎

Let H be any sufficient sub-sigma-field as in [F2]. For each k, apply [F5] on (X,H) to obtain a finite nonnegative H-measurable density rk=d(Pk∣H)/d(Q∣H). For each A∈A, sufficiency supplies one bounded H-measurable vA with the conditional identities for 1A under every Pk. Summing with weights gives those identities under Q. Testing on {vA<0} and {vA>1} shows 0≤vA≤1 Q-almost surely; clipping on these H-measurable null sets preserves every identity because Pk≪Q. Simple approximation and [F9] extend the Q conditional identity to the nonnegative H-measurable weight rk, while the restricted RN identity extends to vA. Consequently ∫Ark dQ=∫vArk dQ=∫vA dPk=Pk(A). Uniqueness in [F5] gives fk=rk Q-almost surely. Combining only these countably many null sets, T=(rk)k Q-almost surely. The right side is H-measurable, so every event in σ(T) agrees modulo a family-null set with an event in H. The kernel in step 2.1 gives sufficiency of σ(T) by extending its event identities to bounded functions using simple approximation and [F9]. Thus [F2] proves minimality against every sufficient sub-sigma-field.

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