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A maximal-mass action is Bayes under finite-class zero–one loss
Statement
Let be a posterior probability kernel on a nonempty finite class with the sigma-algebra of all its subsets; give the action class the same measurable structure and use zero–one loss . Every posterior-mass maximizer minimizes pointwise posterior risk. The least-indexed posterior-mass maximizer is a measurable, finite-risk Bayes action rule. This statement is choice-free.
Facts & Assumptions
Given: The finite posterior probability kernel, finite nonempty class, action space, and zero–one loss in the Statement.
Posterior risk is the finite integral of a jointly measurable nonnegative loss, and a Bayes action rule is a measurable finite-risk minimizer whose minimum is attained. Finite posterior risk and Bayes action rule
Each kernel event evaluation is measurable in its index and each posterior section is a probability measure. Measure kernel and probability kernel
Proof
Given: The hypotheses in the Statement.
Since the parameter and action spaces are finite with all subsets measurable, the zero–one loss is product-measurable as required by [F1]. For , put . By [F2], every is measurable. The zero–one posterior risk of action is Thus the risk is minimized exactly by maximizing .
Since is finite, the nonempty finite list has a maximum. Define to be the least index attaining it. For each , Both intersections are finite, and each set is measurable because the are measurable; hence is measurable. Its risk is finite and it attains the pointwise minimum from step 1.1, so [F1] makes it a Bayes action rule. Choosing the least maximizing index uses only the displayed finite order, not AC.
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Sources
- Ryan Martin, Lecture Notes on Advanced Statistical Theory, §5.3.1, PDF pp. 104–105 (standard reference, not scraped)
- Andrew Gelman et al., Bayesian Data Analysis, 3rd ed., §9.1 (standard reference, not scraped)