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A maximal-mass action is Bayes under finite-class zero–one loss

Statement

Let Π be a posterior probability kernel on a nonempty finite class Θ={1,…,k} with the sigma-algebra of all its subsets; give the action class the same measurable structure and use zero–one loss L(θ,a)=1{θ≠a}. Every posterior-mass maximizer minimizes pointwise posterior risk. The least-indexed posterior-mass maximizer is a measurable, finite-risk Bayes action rule. This statement is choice-free.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The finite posterior probability kernel, finite nonempty class, action space, and zero–one loss in the Statement.

[F1]

Posterior risk is the finite integral of a jointly measurable nonnegative loss, and a Bayes action rule is a measurable finite-risk minimizer whose minimum is attained. Finite posterior risk and Bayes action rule

[F2]

Each kernel event evaluation is measurable in its index and each posterior section is a probability measure. Measure kernel and probability kernel

Proof

Given: The hypotheses in the Statement.

1.1givenF1F2algebra

Since the parameter and action spaces are finite with all subsets measurable, the zero–one loss is product-measurable as required by [F1]. For j=1,…,k, put pj(y)=Πy({j}). By [F2], every pj is measurable. The zero–one posterior risk of action j is ρy(j)=∑ℓ≠jpℓ(y)=1−pj(y). Thus the risk is minimized exactly by maximizing pj(y).

2.1givenF1step 1.1algebra∎

Since k≥1 is finite, the nonempty finite list p1(y),…,pk(y) has a maximum. Define j∗(y) to be the least index attaining it. For each j, {y:j∗(y)=j}=⋂ℓ>j{y:pj(y)≥pℓ(y)} ∩ ⋂ℓ<j{y:pj(y)>pℓ(y)}. Both intersections are finite, and each set is measurable because the pℓ are measurable; hence j∗ is measurable. Its risk is finite and it attains the pointwise minimum from step 1.1, so [F1] makes it a Bayes action rule. Choosing the least maximizing index uses only the displayed finite order, not AC.

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