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TheoremStatement: Literature-sourcedProof: AI-adaptedPipeline-generatedjudge pass (gpt-6-luna)
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Every posterior median minimizes absolute risk when the first absolute moment is finite

Statement

Let Π be a posterior probability kernel on R and take the action space to be R with its Borel sigma-algebra. Let D1={y:∫R∣θ∣ Πy(dθ)<∞}. Then D1 is measurable. For every y∈D1, every posterior median minimizes the finite absolute posterior risk a↦∫∣θ−a∣ Πy(dθ). The measurable lower-median rule from The lower posterior median is a measurable rule is therefore an attained Bayes action rule on D1.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The posterior probability kernel, the finite first-moment set D1, absolute loss, and the median convention in the Statement.

[F1]

A posterior median satisfies the two half-mass inequalities. Posterior median

[F2]

Posterior risk is the finite integral of the stated loss; a Bayes action rule must measurably attain a finite minimum. Finite posterior risk and Bayes action rule

[F3]

The lower-median selection is measurable and is a median on every fiber. The lower posterior median is a measurable rule

[F4]

Kernel integration makes y↦∫∣θ∣Πy(dθ) measurable. Measurability of integration against a kernel

Proof

Given: The hypotheses in the Statement.

1.1givenF2F4algebra

The absolute loss L(θ,a)=∣θ−a∣ is continuous on R2, hence product-Borel measurable as required by [F2]. The function (y,θ)↦∣θ∣ is product-measurable, so [F4] makes its posterior integral measurable and hence D1 a measurable data domain. For y∈D1 and every finite a, ∣θ−a∣≤∣θ∣+∣a∣ makes the posterior risk finite.

1.2givenF1F2algebra

Fix y∈D1 and a median m. For any a>m, put d=a−m and partition R into A=(−∞,m], B=(m,a), and C=[a,∞). On these three sets respectively, ∣θ−a∣−∣θ−m∣ equals d, a+m−2θ, and −d. On B, a+m−2θ≥−d. Therefore ρy(a)−ρy(m)≥d{Πy(A)−Πy(B)−Πy(C)}=d{2Πy(A)−1}≥0, where the last inequality is the first median condition [F1].

2.1givenF1F2F3step 1.2algebra∎

If a<m, put d=m−a and partition into A=(−∞,a], B=(a,m), and C=[m,∞). On these sets the loss difference is respectively −d, 2θ−a−m, and d; on B, 2θ−a−m≥−d. Hence ρy(a)−ρy(m)≥d{−Πy(A)−Πy(B)+Πy(C)}=d{2Πy(C)−1}≥0 by the second median condition [F1]. Equality holds when a=m. Thus every median is a pointwise minimizer; [F3] supplies a measurable median rule, whose finite risk on D1 and attained minimum satisfy [F2].

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