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A finite-group hierarchical model has a conditional law of its latent tuple
Statement
Assume the Axiom of Choice and the hypotheses of Finite-group hierarchical Bayesian model. On the canonical joint probability space, the latent tuple has a regular conditional distribution given the sigma-algebra generated by the observed data . The conditional law is a probability kernel at every sample point, including exceptional points. This existence conclusion alone does not assign a normalized likelihood posterior to a fixed observation fiber on which the evidence is zero or infinite.
Facts & Assumptions
Given: The finite-group hierarchical model and AC.
The model supplies a proper hyperprior, a finite product group-parameter kernel, and a finite product observation kernel, all with the stated measurable spaces. Finite-group hierarchical Bayesian model
A proper prior and probability model kernel define a joint probability law on their product, with the iterated-integral identity. A prior and model kernel define a joint law
A finite product of standard-Borel spaces with its finite product sigma-algebra is standard Borel. Finite products of standard Borel spaces are standard Borel
Under AC, a random element with standard-Borel target has a regular conditional distribution given any sub-sigma-algebra, with probability sections at every sample point. Existence of regular conditional distributions for standard borel targets
Coordinate projections from a product measurable space are measurable. The product sigma-algebra and its finite iterates
AC holds; it is used to apply [F4]. The Axiom of Choice
Proof
Given: The hypotheses in the Statement.
Put with its finite product sigma-algebra. The model definition supplies the proper latent prior on and the probability kernel from to the product observation space ; apply [F2] to obtain the joint probability law on . Let with this law and let and be the coordinate projections. By [F5], both projections are measurable.
The target is standard Borel by [F3], since and are standard Borel and there are finitely many factors. The coordinate map is a measurable random element, and is a sub-sigma-algebra of the canonical product sigma-algebra. By [F4] under [A1], has a regular conditional distribution given . The definition of a regular conditional distribution requires every section to be a probability measure, including at exceptional sample points. The theorem asserts no normalization formula on a fixed observation fiber.
Depends on
- Finite-group hierarchical Bayesian model
- Finite products of standard Borel spaces are standard Borel
- Existence of regular conditional distributions for standard borel targets
- Regular conditional distribution
- The Axiom of Choice
- A prior and model kernel define a joint law
- The product sigma-algebra and its finite iterates
Used by
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Sources
- Andrew Gelman, John B. Carlin, Hal S. Stern, David B. Dunson, Aki Vehtari, and Donald B. Rubin, Bayesian Data Analysis, 3rd ed., §§5.2–5.3 (standard reference, not scraped)
- Alicia A. Johnson, Miles Q. Ott, and Mine Dogucu, Bayes Rules!, Chapter 16 (standard reference, not scraped)