Alphabeta Math
TheoremStatement: Literature-sourcedProof: AI-generatedPipeline-generatedjudge pass (gpt-6-luna)
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A finite-group hierarchical model has a conditional law of its latent tuple

Statement

Assume the Axiom of Choice and the hypotheses of Finite-group hierarchical Bayesian model. On the canonical joint probability space, the latent tuple ξ=(η,θ1,…,θm) has a regular conditional distribution given the sigma-algebra generated by the observed data Y. The conditional law is a probability kernel at every sample point, including exceptional points. This existence conclusion alone does not assign a normalized likelihood posterior to a fixed observation fiber on which the evidence is zero or infinite.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The finite-group hierarchical model and AC.

[F1]

The model supplies a proper hyperprior, a finite product group-parameter kernel, and a finite product observation kernel, all with the stated measurable spaces. Finite-group hierarchical Bayesian model

[F2]

A proper prior and probability model kernel define a joint probability law on their product, with the iterated-integral identity. A prior and model kernel define a joint law

[F3]

A finite product of standard-Borel spaces with its finite product sigma-algebra is standard Borel. Finite products of standard Borel spaces are standard Borel

[F4]

Under AC, a random element with standard-Borel target has a regular conditional distribution given any sub-sigma-algebra, with probability sections at every sample point. Existence of regular conditional distributions for standard borel targets

[F5]

Coordinate projections from a product measurable space are measurable. The product sigma-algebra and its finite iterates

[A1]

AC holds; it is used to apply [F4]. The Axiom of Choice

Proof

technique · construct the canonical joint law, then apply standard-Borel disintegration to the latent coordinate

Given: The hypotheses in the Statement.

1.1F1F2F5given

Put Ξ=H×Θm with its finite product sigma-algebra. The model definition supplies the proper latent prior P0 on Ξ and the probability kernel from Ξ to the product observation space Y; apply [F2] to obtain the joint probability law P0(dξ)K(ξ,dy) on Ξ×Y. Let Ω=Ξ×Y with this law and let ξ and Y be the coordinate projections. By [F5], both projections are measurable.

2.1A1F3F4step 1.1∎

The target Ξ is standard Borel by [F3], since H and Θ are standard Borel and there are finitely many factors. The coordinate map ξ:Ω→Ξ is a measurable random element, and σ(Y) is a sub-sigma-algebra of the canonical product sigma-algebra. By [F4] under [A1], ξ has a regular conditional distribution given σ(Y). The definition of a regular conditional distribution requires every section to be a probability measure, including at exceptional sample points. The theorem asserts no normalization formula on a fixed observation fiber.

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