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Consistency of the IID sample mean under a finite first moment

Statement

Let X=R with its Borel sigma-algebra, and let P be a parametric statistical experiment on X. Define the mean estimand by μ(θ)=∫x Pθ(dx) and suppose it is finite for every θ. For a fixed θ, suppose an IID sequence (Xi)i≥1 with one-observation law Pθ is given and Eθ∣X1∣<∞. The sample-mean estimator Tn(x1,…,xn)=n−1∑i=1nxi is consistent in probability for μ at θ in the IID sample-size experiments.

The assertion is pointwise in θ. The existence of a common probability space carrying the IID sequence is part of the hypothesis.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The experiment, finite mean, and IID sequence in the statement.

[F1]

Identical distribution and IID families: A family is IID when it is identically distributed and the whole family is independent; no moment assumption is implicit.

[F2]

Partial sums, row sums and sample means: For real random variables X1,X2,…, Sn=∑i=1nXi and X‾n=Sn/n; these finite sums and means are random variables.

[F3]

Independent random elements have product joint law: A finite independent family of random elements has joint law equal to the finite product of its marginal laws.

[F4]

Khinchin weak law for integrable IID variables: If (Xi) are IID real random variables and E∣X1∣<∞, then Sn/n→EX1 in probability.

[F5]

Estimator sequences in IID experiments: The size-n sample space is Xn with law Pθ⊗n, and the estimator is a measurable map on that space.

[F6]

Pointwise consistency in probability: The estimator is consistent at θ when Pθ⊗n{∣Tn−μ(θ)∣>ε}→0 for every ε>0.

[F7]

Estimands on a statistical model: An estimand is a specified function from the parameter set to its target set.

[F8]

Expectation of a nonnegative or integrable random variable: For an integrable real random variable, expectation is its finite Lebesgue integral against the probability measure.

[F9]

Arithmetic and lattice operations preserve measurability whenever they are defined: Finite sums and scalar multiples of measurable real-valued functions are measurable whenever the operations are pointwise defined.

[F10]

Change of variables for expectation: If a real random variable X has law Pθ, g:R→R is Borel measurable, and g(X) is integrable, then Eθ[g(X)]=∫g(x) Pθ(dx).

[F11]

Statistical experiments: An experiment supplies the observation measurable space and its parameter-indexed family of sampling laws.

[F12]

Parametric statistical models: The parametric model is the map θ↦Pθ on that experiment.

[F13]

The Borel sigma-algebra of a topological space: The Borel sigma-algebra on R is generated by its open subsets.

Proof

Given: The objects and hypotheses in the statement.

1.1F1F2F3F5F7F8F9F10F11F12F13given

The statistical experiment and parametric model in [F11]–[F12] specify the sampling law Pθ. Each coordinate projection on Rn is measurable because the preimage of a Borel set B⊆R is the cylinder rectangle Ri−1×B×Rn−i in the product sigma-algebra [F5]. Thus [F9] makes Tn(x1,…,xn)=n−1∑i=1nxi measurable into the Borel target [F13], so it is the estimator in [F5]; applied to the given sequence, it is the finite sample mean in [F2]. By [F1] and [F3], the law of (X1,…,Xn) is Pθ⊗n. Since X1 has law Pθ and is integrable, [F10] gives EθX1=∫x Pθ(dx)=μ(θ); the mean is the estimand [F7].

1.2F1F4given

The hypotheses of [F4] hold for this IID sequence, so X‾n→EθX1=μ(θ) in probability on its given common probability space.

2.1F5F6F14step 1.1step 1.2∎

For each n, step 1.1 identifies the joint data law with Pθ⊗n; applying the same measurable sample-mean map therefore gives exactly the error probabilities in [F6] for the absolute-value metric [F14]. Step 1.2 makes those probabilities tend to zero for every ε>0, which is consistency at θ. No infinite-product extension is constructed or needed.

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