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Consistency of the IID sample mean under a finite first moment
Statement
Let with its Borel sigma-algebra, and let be a parametric statistical experiment on . Define the mean estimand by and suppose it is finite for every . For a fixed , suppose an IID sequence with one-observation law is given and . The sample-mean estimator is consistent in probability for at in the IID sample-size experiments.
The assertion is pointwise in . The existence of a common probability space carrying the IID sequence is part of the hypothesis.
Facts & Assumptions
Given: The experiment, finite mean, and IID sequence in the statement.
Identical distribution and IID families: A family is IID when it is identically distributed and the whole family is independent; no moment assumption is implicit.
Partial sums, row sums and sample means: For real random variables , and ; these finite sums and means are random variables.
Independent random elements have product joint law: A finite independent family of random elements has joint law equal to the finite product of its marginal laws.
Khinchin weak law for integrable IID variables: If are IID real random variables and , then in probability.
Estimator sequences in IID experiments: The size- sample space is with law , and the estimator is a measurable map on that space.
Pointwise consistency in probability: The estimator is consistent at when for every .
Estimands on a statistical model: An estimand is a specified function from the parameter set to its target set.
Expectation of a nonnegative or integrable random variable: For an integrable real random variable, expectation is its finite Lebesgue integral against the probability measure.
Arithmetic and lattice operations preserve measurability whenever they are defined: Finite sums and scalar multiples of measurable real-valued functions are measurable whenever the operations are pointwise defined.
Change of variables for expectation: If a real random variable has law , is Borel measurable, and is integrable, then .
Statistical experiments: An experiment supplies the observation measurable space and its parameter-indexed family of sampling laws.
Parametric statistical models: The parametric model is the map on that experiment.
The Borel sigma-algebra of a topological space: The Borel sigma-algebra on is generated by its open subsets.
The absolute value makes a metric space: is a metric, its open balls are the intervals , and it is unbounded: The usual absolute-value distance on is a metric.
Proof
Given: The objects and hypotheses in the statement.
The statistical experiment and parametric model in [F11]–[F12] specify the sampling law . Each coordinate projection on is measurable because the preimage of a Borel set is the cylinder rectangle in the product sigma-algebra [F5]. Thus [F9] makes measurable into the Borel target [F13], so it is the estimator in [F5]; applied to the given sequence, it is the finite sample mean in [F2]. By [F1] and [F3], the law of is . Since has law and is integrable, [F10] gives ; the mean is the estimand [F7].
The hypotheses of [F4] hold for this IID sequence, so in probability on its given common probability space.
For each , step 1.1 identifies the joint data law with ; applying the same measurable sample-mean map therefore gives exactly the error probabilities in [F6] for the absolute-value metric [F14]. Step 1.2 makes those probabilities tend to zero for every , which is consistency at . No infinite-product extension is constructed or needed.
Depends on
- The Borel sigma-algebra of a topological space
- Pointwise consistency in probability
- Estimands on a statistical model
- Estimator sequences in IID experiments
- Expectation of a nonnegative or integrable random variable
- Identical distribution and IID families
- The absolute value makes $\mathbb{R}$ a metric space: $d(x,y) = |x-y|$ is a metric, its open balls are the intervals $(x-r, x+r)$, and it is unbounded
- Parametric statistical models
- Partial sums, row sums and sample means
- Statistical experiments
- Arithmetic and lattice operations preserve measurability whenever they are defined
- Change of variables for expectation
- Independent random elements have product joint law
- Khinchin weak law for integrable IID variables
Used by
- The Bernoulli sample mean Example
Dependency tree · two levels
66 results within two dependency steps of this one, each drawn at its shortest distance from it. An arrow runs from a result to what uses it, so the chart reads left to right and ends at this result, which carries a heavier outline. Every node is a link to that result. Click elsewhere on the chart to enlarge it.
Sources
- S. R. S. Varadhan, Probability Theory, Theorem 3.3, Chapter 3, PDF pp. 55–57 (standard reference, not scraped)
- Rick Durrett, Probability: Theory and Examples, 5th ed., Theorem 2.2.14, §2.2, PDF pp. 64–65 (standard reference, not scraped)