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Exact power and least sample size for a known-variance normal z-test

Statement

Assume AC. Let X1,…,Xn be mutually independent with common law N(μ,σ2), where n∈N≥1, σ>0, and μ∈R. Fix μ0∈R, α,βII∈(0,1), and δ>0, and put μ1=μ0+δ. Observe Xˉn=n−1∑iXi in the one-dimensional experiment with law N(μ,σ2/n). For the upper-tail test of H0:μ≤μ0 against H1:μ>μ0 with rejection rule φn(x)=1 ⁣{n(x−μ0)σ>z1−α}, the test size is α, and its power at any μ is πn(μ)=Φ ⁣(n(μ−μ0)σ−z1−α). The least positive integer sample size attaining target power 1−βII at μ1, with candidate sizes N≥1, is n∗=max⁡ ⁣{1,⌈(σδ)2max⁡ ⁣{0,z1−α+z1−βII}2⌉}. If z1−α+z1−βII≤0, every positive integer size meets the target and the least is 1. This is an exact result for the specified known-σ normal model; it makes no approximation or claim for an unknown-σ t-test or another sampling law.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: AC; the independent normal sample and parameters in the Statement; the one-dimensional sample-mean experiment; and the definitions of test size and power.

[A1]

Assume AC, as required by the Gaussian-law convention. It also supplies countable choice: apply AC to the family of values of any sequence of nonempty sets and compose the resulting choice function with that sequence. This discharges the countable-choice premise in [F5]. The Axiom of Choice The Axiom of Countable Choice (ACω) The Axiom of Choice implies countable choice

[F1]

The sample mean has law N(μ,σ2/n), and its standardized value has law N(n(μ−μ0)/σ,1). The mean of a finite independent normal sample is normal

[F2]

Φ is continuous and strictly increasing, has no atoms, satisfies Φ(−x)=1−Φ(x), and has unique quantiles zq with Φ(zq)=q. Standard-normal CDF, tail, and quantile identities for power calculations

[F3]

A statistical experiment specifies a data measurable space, a parameter set, and a probability law for each parameter; here the observation is Xˉn with law N(μ,σ2/n). Statistical experiments

[F4]

A randomized test has a measurable rejection-probability function φ; in this deterministic case it is the indicator of the rejection region. Randomized tests

[F6]

Power is the rejection probability at each parameter and size is the supremum of power over the nonempty null set. Test size and power

[F7]

The planning rule returns the least feasible positive integer size when the feasible set is nonempty. Power and sample-size planning specifications A nonempty set of positive integers has a least member

[F8]

Define ⌈x⌉=−⌊−x⌋; it is the least integer greater than or equal to x. Ceilings give the least positive integer meeting a real threshold

Proof

1.1A1F1F3F4F5givenalgebra

By [A1], countable choice is available for the Borel-measurability supplier in [F5]. The affine statistic x↦n(x−μ0)/σ is continuous, so the strict upper-level rejection set is Borel and its indicator is measurable. [F5] therefore makes φn a randomized-test function in the sample-mean experiment described by [F3]; [F1] gives its statistic the stated shifted normal law.

2.1F1F2step 1.1algebra

Write λμ=n(μ−μ0)/σ. Under parameter μ, the rejection probability is 1−Φ(z1−α−λμ)=Φ(λμ−z1−α) by the symmetry in [F2]. This is the stated power function.

3.1F2F6step 2.1algebra

On H0, λμ≤0. Since Φ is strictly increasing, the power in step 2.1 is increasing in μ, so its supremum over μ≤μ0 occurs at μ0. There it equals Φ(−z1−α)=Φ(zα)=α by [F2]; hence the test size is α.

3.2F2givenstep 2.1algebra

At μ1=μ0+δ, target power is attained exactly when Φ(δn/σ−z1−α)≥Φ(z1−βII). Strict increase of Φ makes this equivalent to δn/σ≥q, where q=z1−α+z1−βII. If q≤0, the left side is positive for every n≥1, so all positive sizes qualify. If q>0, the condition is n≥(σ/δ)2q2.

4.1F7F8step 3.1step 3.2algebra∎

For q≤0, the least positive size is 1, which agrees with the displayed formula. For q>0, [F8] makes the least integer at least (σ/δ)2q2 its ceiling, already positive. The cases in step 3.2 make the target-feasible set nonempty; step 3.1 shows that every candidate size satisfies the size constraint sn=α. Thus the target-feasible sizes are exactly the plans meeting the test request, and [F7] identifies their least size with the planning rule's output. The unified expression is the stated n∗.

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