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Posterior of a finite masking chain

Statement

Let V be a finite nonempty vocabulary, let m∉V, let L,N≥1, and let 1=α0>α1>⋯>αN=0 be the survival schedule of the finite masking chain. Fix a clean sequence x∈VL and grid indices 0≤s<t≤N. For every state zt∈(V∪{m})L with Pr⁡(Zt=zt∣X=x)>0, the conditional law of Zs given X=x,Zt=zt is a product over coordinates. At coordinate i, if zt,i∈V, then Zs,i=zt,i with probability one. If zt,i=m, then, with cs,t=(αs−αt)/(1−αt), the only possible values are xi and m, with probabilities Pr⁡(Zs,i=xi∣X=x,Zt,i=m)=cs,t,Pr⁡(Zs,i=m∣X=x,Zt,i=m)=1−αs1−αt. The denominator is positive because t≥1 implies αt<1; at s=0 the mask posterior has zero mass.

Statement references

Finite masking diffusion chain: conditional on X=x, coordinates and masking draws are independent, clean tokens never change, and m is absorbing.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The finite masking chain, a fixed clean string x, grid indices 0≤s<t≤N, and a state zt with positive conditional probability given X=x. Prove the displayed product posterior.

[F1]

Finite masking diffusion chain: at step j, a clean token survives with probability rj=αj/αj−1, the mask is absorbing, and corruption factors over positions conditional on the clean string.

[F2]

Finite masking-chain transitions define a probability law: the finite path mass is a normalized probability law.

Proof

1.1givenF1F2algebra

For one coordinate, the probability of surviving all steps through s is ∏j=1srj=αs, with the empty product equal to one when s=0. Survival through t has probability αt. Since the mask is absorbing, the event “clean at s and masked at t” has probability αs−αt, while “masked at t” has probability 1−αt. The latter is positive for t≥1. Dividing these finite event probabilities gives the two displayed conditional masses, which sum to one.

2.1F1F2step 1.1algebra

If zt,i∈V, positive conditional probability forces zt,i=xi; the token could not have changed or been unmasked after masking, so its earlier value is the same. If zt,i=m, step 1.1 gives the two possible earlier values and their probabilities. By [F1], conditional on x the coordinate paths are independent; conditioning on the coordinatewise event Zt=zt therefore leaves the coordinate posterior laws independent, and their product is the asserted full conditional law.

3.1givenF1step 1.1algebra∎

The strict schedule gives 0<cs,t≤1 and 1−cs,t=(1−αs)/(1−αt). At s=0, cs,t=1; at t=N, αt=0 and the denominator is one. Thus the formula covers both endpoints without conditioning on the zero-probability event Z0=m.

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