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The backward-simulation sweep is a Gibbs update

Statement

Under Backward-simulation particle Gibbs extended target and Particle Gibbs with backward simulation, for posterior-almost every retained state in the stated good set, the conditional law of the remaining particle system given (θ,x∗,j) is the stated conditional auxiliary particle filter, and the conditional law of the index sequence given (θ,U) is the backward simulator with terminal weights WT and backward probabilities Bt. In a joint sweep, the posterior draw of θ′ given the selected path, followed by conditional auxiliary-particle filter regeneration, is the joint conditional-block update of the parameter and remaining particle variables given the retained path and index sequence. The backward-index draw is then its conditional update given (θ′,U′). The extended target is a probability measure whose selected (θ,x∗) marginal is the exact joint smoothing posterior. With the measurable identity fallback on exceptional retained states, these updates preserve the extended target for every fixed N≥2. No fast-mixing or ergodicity claim follows.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The density-based finite-horizon target, full target-path support, positive finite backward denominators, and the multinomial SIR particle law with ancestor labels in sampled order.

[A1]

The Axiom of Choice: AC is assumed through the Radon–Nikodym path weights and standard-Borel disintegration.

[F1]

Backward-simulation particle Gibbs extended target: the extended density is the target path density times the SIR forward density divided by the selected particles' proposal densities, with the product of backward probabilities Bt and uniform index factor N−(T+1).

[F2]

Particle Gibbs with backward simulation: the conditional auxiliary particle filter fixes reference states, draws their ancestors from B, and uses SIR transitions for the other particles; the backward simulator draws JT by WT and then each Jt by Bt.

[F3]

Feynman–Kac path Radon–Nikodym weight: on target support, each proposal weight is the target path factor divided by the corresponding proposal factor.

[F4]

Feynman–Kac path targets and normalizers: γθ,T is the unnormalized state-path measure, and C−1π0(dθ)γθ,T(dx) is a probability posterior when 0<C<∞.

[F5]

Disintegration of a joint law on standard borel spaces: under AC conditional probability kernels exist and are unique outside a single measurable marginal-null set on standard-Borel products.

Proof

Given: The hypotheses in the Statement.

1.1A1F1F3givenalgebra

Write wti for the unnormalized importance weight of particle i using its actual ancestor Ati. On the proposal-support set in [F3], qθ,0(X0i)w0i=μθ,0(X0i)G0(X0i) and qθ,t(Xti∣Xt−1Ati)wti=Gt(Xti)fθ,t(Xti∣Xt−1Ati). These product identities include zero weights and zero transition densities; they require no division by an alternative-parent transition density. Put St=∑iwti and Ht(z)=∑iwt−1ifθ,t(z∣Xt−1i). Whenever the prescribed normalizers are positive and finite, Wti=wti/St and Bt−1i(z;U)=wt−1ifθ,t(z∣Xt−1i)/Ht(z).

1.2A1F1F2F3algebra

Fix a backward index sequence j and its reference path. Expanding the forward density ψθ in [F1] and canceling the selected initial proposal and each selected joint ancestor-proposal factor gives φNBS(dθ,du,j)=π0(dθ)γθ,T(dx0:Tj)CNT+1∏i≠j0qθ,0(x0i)∏t=1T[∏i≠jt(Wt−1Atiqθ,t(xti∣xt−1Ati))]∏t=1TBt−1Atjt(xtjt;U). The bracketed factors are exactly the non-reference resample-and-propagate law and the categorical backward ancestor law in [F2]. For target-almost every retained path, its initial target factor and all its potentials are positive. The reference initial weight is therefore positive on the supplied proposal-support set. Inductively, a reference ancestor drawn from B has positive preceding weight and transition density, so its new importance weight is positive there as well. Thus each weight sum remains positive; zero individual free-particle weights cause no failure. The prescribed support and finite-denominator conventions exclude the remaining exceptional ratios almost everywhere. Each categorical or proposal factor then integrates to one, so this is the normalized conditional auxiliary particle filter.

2.1A1F1F2F3step 1.1algebra

Fix (θ,U) on its forward-support set with positive finite required normalizers. In [F1], cancel each selected ancestor probability against the numerator of its backward factor, then use the product identities in step 1.1 to absorb each potential into the actual-parent weight. The extended density becomes π0(dθ)ψθ(u)CNT+1w0j0∏t=1Twtjtfθ,t(Xtjt∣Xt−1jt−1)Ht(Xtjt)/St−1=π0(dθ)ψθ(u)CNT+1(∏t=0TSt)WTjT∏t=1TBt−1jt−1(Xtjt;U). This equality merely regroups products; no weight or transition density is divided out. A zero selected weight or path-transition factor gives zero mass on both sides. Index sequences encountering a zero backward denominator likewise have zero mass: a positive terminal weight has a positive actual-parent factor, and a positive backward draw recursively has positive preceding weight. Set these zero-mass terms to zero as prescribed by [F1]. The prefactor is independent of j, and summing the remaining factors from j0 through jT gives one by their categorical normalization. Thus the index conditional is exactly the backward simulator in [F2], including T=0, when the product is empty.

2.2F1F4step 1.2algebra

By step 1.2, for each fixed j the other particle variables have a normalized conditional law. The leading factor is C−1π0(dθ)γθ,T(dxj)/NT+1 by [F4]. There are NT+1 index sequences, so integrating the remaining variables and summing over them gives total mass one and selected (θ,x∗) marginal C−1π0(dθ)γθ,T(dx∗).

3.1A1F1F2F5step 1.2step 2.1step 2.2construct

The standard-Borel state and particle spaces permit [F5] to be applied to the probability target in step 2.2. The normalized factorizations in steps 1.2 and 2.1 identify its conditional kernels outside measurable marginal-null sets. Pull exceptional events back to the common extended-state space and take their finite union over index sequences and sweep blocks; its target mass is zero. By the conditional integral identity in [F5], its conditional probability given the retained variables is zero outside a measurable marginal-null set. Removing this set gives the good set specified in [F1]–[F2]. On its complement the algorithm retains the old state; undefined ratio or normalization events within a conditional factorization have zero conditional mass on this good set. Thus the stated formulas and their measurable fallback define conditional-law versions almost everywhere, without assuming arbitrary reference points admit valid density ratios.

4.1F1F2F4step 1.2step 2.1step 2.2step 3.1∎

In coordinates consisting of the selected path xj, its index sequence j, and the remaining particle variables U−j, the factorization in step 1.2 shows that the conditional law of (θ,U−j) given (xj,j) is obtained by first drawing θ from its posterior full conditional given xj and then drawing U−j from the conditional auxiliary-particle-filter law. The factor N−(T+1) is constant in θ and xj, so the old particle system has been marginalized in this joint conditional block. Thus the first two updates in the algorithm, parameter draw and filter regeneration, together preserve the extended target. By step 2.1, the following backward-index draw is the conditional law of j given (θ,U) and also preserves that target. The exceptional-state identity modifications do not change its integral by step 3.1, and the selected marginal in step 2.2 remains exact.

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