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Particle MCMC: PMMH and particle Gibbs

1 · Prerequisites

2 · Summary

Particle marginal Metropolis–Hastings (PMMH) is an exact pseudo-marginal Metropolis update when the likelihood estimator is nonnegative, measurable, and unbiased for a finite-horizon state-space likelihood. Its extended state includes all particle randomness, the selected path index, and the likelihood estimate; rejection retains that complete state. Monte Carlo within Metropolis (MCWM) redraws the current estimate and can lose the exact posterior, as the finite counterexample shows.

Particle Gibbs here uses multinomial resampling with ancestor labels in sampled order and a conditional particle filter on a fixed-horizon path target. PMMH may use either declared unbiased offspring scheme. The particle cloud, ancestor indices, and selected trajectory index form an explicit extended target whose selected parameter-path marginal is the exact smoothing posterior for every fixed N≥2. In a conditional particle Gibbs sweep, the posterior parameter draw followed by conditional filter regeneration is one joint conditional block given the retained path and lineage; the terminal index is then drawn from its categorical conditional. A density-based backward-simulation variant uses the displayed backward probabilities and a conditional auxiliary particle filter. Its posterior parameter draw and filter regeneration form a joint conditional block, followed by the backward-index conditional. The target and proposal kernels vary measurably with the standard-Borel parameter. Full target-path support, finite positive evidence, and measurable proposal weights are also required. The explicit conditional formulas hold on measurable full-posterior-measure reference sets; exceptional reference values use a measurable unchanged-state fallback. Finite-N invariance does not imply fast mixing, as the sticky finite example illustrates.

3 · Logical flowchart

4 · Definitions, theorems and proofs

AlgorithmAlgorithm: Literature-sourcedProof: Not applicablejudge pass (gpt-6-luna)Open item page →

Particle marginal Metropolis–Hastings

Definition

Fix observations y1:T, a standard-Borel parameter space (Θ,T), a prior probability π0, and the finite-horizon Feynman–Kac path model in Feynman–Kac path targets and normalizers. Write Lθ(y1:T)=γθ,T(1),C=∫ΘLθ(y1:T) π0(dθ). Require every prefix normalizer 0<Zθ,t<∞ for t=0,…,T and π0-almost every θ, together with 0<C<∞; then the parameter posterior is πy(dθ)=C−1Lθ(y1:T) π0(dθ).

For fixed particle count N≥1, let U contain the full output of Sequential importance resampling for Feynman–Kac path targets at θ and a terminal index K∈{1,…,N} drawn conditionally with its final normalized weight. Let mθ(du) be this measurable auxiliary-variable probability kernel and let L^θ(U)=Z^T be jointly measurable and nonnegative in (θ,U). The required interface is ∫L^θ(u) mθ(du)=Lθ(y1:T); The sequential particle estimator is unbiased for Feynman–Kac path integrals supplies this identity under its finite-horizon support and integrability hypotheses. Define the extended target probability by π~(dθ,du)=C−1π0(dθ)mθ(du)L^θ(u).

Given current (θ,U), propose θ′∼R(θ,⋅) and then U′∼mθ′. Apply the general Metropolis–Hastings construction Metropolis–Hastings kernel to this proposal kernel and target π~. On rejection retain the entire current pair (θ,U), including its stored likelihood estimate and selected path index. When π0 and R have densities p0 and r, and the current extended target density is positive, the acceptance probability is 1∧p0(θ′)L^θ′(U′)r(θ∣θ′)p0(θ)L^θ(U)r(θ′∣θ). For the displayed density-ratio formula, initialize at a current state where p0(θ)L^θ(U)>0. The density-free version uses the accepted-flow Radon–Nikodym construction in the cited general-state algorithm; it does not evaluate a pointwise prior mass or require this density condition. Proposed zero estimates are rejected. The input is the current extended state (θ,U); output the proposed extended state (θ′,U′) on acceptance and retain (θ,U) on rejection.

The selected path stored in U is part of the auxiliary state. Refreshing its estimate after rejection defines the different Monte Carlo within Metropolis procedure, not this algorithm.

TheoremStatement: Literature-sourcedProof: AI-adaptedOpen item page →

PMMH preserves the exact parameter posterior

Statement

Under the hypotheses of Particle marginal Metropolis–Hastings, assume the unbiasedness identity there holds and the evidence C is finite and positive. Then π~ is a probability measure whose parameter marginal is πy. With the terminal index included in U, the joint marginal of (θ,X0:TK) is the posterior C−1π0(dθ)γθ,T(dx0:T). The PMMH transition kernel is reversible, hence invariant, for π~; its parameter and selected-path marginals are therefore exact for every fixed N≥1. This is an invariance result only; it asserts no irreducibility, uniqueness, convergence rate, or mixing speed.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The hypotheses of Particle marginal Metropolis–Hastings, including the finite positive evidence, the unbiased particle likelihood estimate, and retention of the full auxiliary state after rejection.

[A1]

The Axiom of Choice: the path Radon–Nikodym suppliers assume AC.

[F1]

Particle marginal Metropolis–Hastings: π~(dθ,du)=C−1π0(dθ)mθ(du)L^θ(u), and the proposal on (θ,u) is R(θ,dθ′)mθ′(du′).

[F2]

The sequential particle estimator is unbiased for Feynman–Kac path integrals: for each nonnegative measurable path test function φ with finite target integral, E[Z^Tπ^TN(φ)]=γθ,T(φ); in particular E[Z^T]=Lθ(y1:T).

[F3]

Metropolis–Hastings kernel: the general accepted-flow construction defines the accept/reject transition rule and retains rejected proposals as self-transitions.

[F4]

Metropolis–Hastings flow is reversible and invariant: that rule is a probability kernel, reversible and invariant for its probability target.

[F5]

Invariant and stationary distribution for a Markov kernel: invariance means equality of the target measure after integrating the transition kernel.

Proof

Given: [A1] and the hypotheses in the Statement.

1.1F1F2givenalgebra

Integrating [F1] first in u gives C−1π0(dθ)EmθL^θ=C−1Lθπ0(dθ) by [F2]. Its total mass is C−1∫Lθ dπ0=1, so π~ is a probability and its parameter marginal is πy.

2.1F1F2step 1.1algebra

For a measurable set B of parameter-path pairs, summing over the terminal index gives π~{(θ,X0:TK)∈B}=C−1∫π0(dθ) E ⁣[Z^T∑k=1NWTk1B(θ,X0:Tk)]=C−1∫π0(dθ) γθ,T(Bθ), because the sum is the weighted empirical path integral in [F2]. Thus the selected path marginal is the joint posterior.

2.2A1F1F3F4step 1.1construct

The proposal in [F1] is a probability kernel because it is the composition of the probability kernel R and the auxiliary probability kernels mθ′. Applying [F3] to this target and proposal defines the PMMH accept/reject rule, which is a probability kernel by [F4]; in the common-density case the factors mθ(u) cancel between the target and proposal ratios, leaving exactly the displayed ratio in Particle marginal Metropolis–Hastings. On rejection, [F3] retains the current extended state.

3.1F1F4F5step 1.1step 2.1∎

By [F4], this extended-space kernel is reversible and invariant for π~. Applying the measurable coordinate projections (θ,u)↦θ and (θ,u)↦(θ,X0:TK) to the invariant law gives the exact marginals in steps 1.1 and 2.1, in the sense of [F5].

AlgorithmAlgorithm: Literature-sourcedProof: Not applicablejudge pass (gpt-6-luna)Open item page →

Monte Carlo within Metropolis

Definition

Use the parameter and likelihood-estimator inputs of Particle marginal Metropolis–Hastings, restricted to the common-density case where the prior has density p0 and the proposal kernel has transition density r(θ′∣θ) with respect to a common parameter reference measure. Initialize at a parameter with p0(θ)>0, and assume L^ϑ(U)>0 for mϑ-almost every U at every parameter ϑ that the procedure can propose or visit. These conditions make the displayed ratio defined almost surely. The input is the current parameter θ; the output is the next parameter.

At each iteration draw a fresh U∼mθ, propose θ′∼R(θ,⋅), and independently draw U′∼mθ′. Accept θ′ with probability 1∧p0(θ′)L^θ′(U′)r(θ∣θ′)p0(θ)L^θ(U)r(θ′∣θ). Output θ′ on acceptance and θ on rejection. Discard both auxiliary values before the next iteration and draw a new current estimate.

This is Monte Carlo within Metropolis (MCWM). It does not retain a single extended state on rejection, so the pseudo-marginal invariance proof does not apply. This definition makes no exactness or stationarity claim.

DefinitionDefinition: Literature-sourcedProof: Not applicablejudge pass (gpt-6-luna)Open item page →

Particle Gibbs extended target

Definition

Let (Θ,T) be a standard-Borel parameter space with a prior π0. Use common standard-Borel state spaces and a jointly measurable parameterized target/proposal family: the initial and transition target and proposal laws are probability kernels in θ and their state arguments, the potentials are jointly measurable, and the chosen Radon–Nikodym weight versions are jointly measurable. Thus θ↦γθ,T and θ↦ψθ are measure and probability kernels, and the SIR weights and normalizer are jointly measurable in (θ,U). The prior-kernel law π0(dθ)ψθ(du) is a probability measure by A prior and model kernel define a joint law.

Use the finite-horizon state path model and proposal support conditions in Feynman–Kac path targets and normalizers, Feynman–Kac path Radon–Nikodym weight, and Sequential importance resampling for Feynman–Kac path targets. Select the multinomial resampling branch, returning ancestor indices in sampled order. Residual resampling is not the labeled particle law used by this genealogical construction. Write γθ,T for the Feynman–Kac path measure at parameter θ and set Lθ=γθ,T(1). Assume 0<Lθ<∞ for π0-almost every θ, and C=∫Lθ π0(dθ),0<C<∞. For a fixed particle count N≥2, write U=(X01:N,A11:N,X11:N,…,AT1:N,XT1:N) for the full particle system and ancestor indices generated by Sequential importance resampling for Feynman–Kac path targets. Its forward probability law at parameter θ is ψθ(du). The algorithm defines the product normalizer estimate Z^T(U) and final normalized weights WT1(U),…,WTN(U); K is a terminal particle index. The path X0:TK means the states on the ancestral lineage of particle K, traced through the arrays A11:N,…,AT1:N.

More explicitly, relative to counting measure on ancestor arrays and the ordered SIR proposal-kernel integrals for the states, ψθ(du)=∏i=1Nνθ,0(dx0i)∏t=1T∏i=1N[Wt−1Ati(U)Rθ,t(Xt−1Ati,dxti)]. Each factor Wt−1Ati(U) is the categorical mass of that ancestor choice; no state transition density is assumed for the genealogical variant.

The genealogical particle Gibbs extended target is the measure φN(dθ,du,k)=C−1π0(dθ) ψθ(du) Z^T(u)WTk(u),k∈{1,…,N}. The selected state is (θ,X0:TK). The zero-weight fallback in the particle algorithm defines WT everywhere; when Z^T=0 the extended target assigns the configuration zero mass.

The measure is a probability and has the exact joint smoothing posterior as its selected (θ,X0:TK) marginal by The particle Gibbs extended target has the exact smoothing marginal ↗.

Conditional-version convention

All particle variables, indices, parameter and retained-path coordinates are standard Borel. Under AC, Disintegration of a joint law on standard borel spaces supplies everywhere probability-kernel conditional versions of this extended target. The explicit conditional-filter formulas below identify those versions only outside a measurable null set of retained parameter-path-lineage values. Fix a measurable full-measure set D on which the formulas are defined and normalized, intersected over the finitely many lineages and conditional updates. Reference paths are admitted through D, rather than through an assertion about arbitrary points of topological support. On its complement a particle Gibbs sweep leaves the retained state unchanged. This identity fallback is measurable and changes the kernel only on a posterior-null set. The factorization theorem establishes the required full-measure property; no pointwise validity for arbitrary Radon–Nikodym versions is asserted.

AlgorithmAlgorithm: Literature-sourcedProof: Not applicableOpen item page →

Conditional particle filter for particle Gibbs

Definition

Fix N≥2, a finite horizon T, a parameter θ, and a reference trajectory x0:T∗ with a reference lineage of particle indices b0,…,bT∈{1,…,N}. Use the proposal kernels, incremental weights, and normalized resampling weights of Sequential importance resampling for Feynman–Kac path targets. Use multinomial resampling with indices in sampled order. Require target-path domination as in Feynman–Kac path Radon–Nikodym weight and a retained (θ,x∗,b) in the measurable full-measure good set D of Particle Gibbs extended target. The formulas are conditional-law versions for posterior-almost every reference path; membership in topological support alone is insufficient. Outside D, return status “unavailable” and leave the retained parameter-path-lineage state unchanged in the sweep. If an arithmetic operation in a sampled particle system is undefined or a required normalizing sum is zero/nonfinite, also return “unavailable” and retain the old state; on D these events have conditional probability zero by the factorization theorem.

At fixed θ, use the parameter-specific proposal kernels and weights in Sequential importance resampling for Feynman–Kac path targets, writing its normalized resampling weights wˉti as Wti. The input is (θ,x0:T∗,b0:T); the output is the conditional particle system, its normalized weights, its ancestry arrays, and either a successful status or “unavailable”.

  1. At time 0, draw each X0i for i≠b0 independently from ν0 and set X0b0=x0∗. Compute the SIR initial weights a0i=G0(X0i)ρ0(X0i) and set Z^0=N−1∑ia0i. If ∑ia0i>0, put W0i=a0i/∑ja0j; otherwise use the SIR zero-weight convention W0i=1/N. A zero or nonfinite normalizing sum makes the sweep unavailable and returns the unchanged retained state.
  2. For t=1,…,T, for every i≠bt draw an ancestor Ati from the categorical distribution with probabilities Wt−11:N and then draw Xti from the proposal kernel conditional on Xt−1Ati. Set Atbt=bt−1 and Xtbt=xt∗. Compute the SIR incremental weights ati=Gt(Xti)rt(Xt−1Ati,Xti) and update Z^t=Z^t−1(N−1∑iati). If the weight sum is positive, put Wti=ati/∑jatj; otherwise use the SIR zero-weight convention Wti=1/N. A zero or nonfinite normalizing sum makes the sweep unavailable and returns the unchanged retained state.
  3. Return the conditional particle system, its normalized weights, and its ancestry arrays.

For a joint parameter-path sweep, retain the current selected path x∗ and its lineage b, draw θ′ from its exact posterior full conditional given x∗, and apply Steps 1–3 at θ′. This parameter draw followed by conditional-particle-filter regeneration is one joint conditional-block update. Then draw K′∼Categorical(WT1:N) and trace its ancestry to obtain the next selected path. Output the new extended state (θ′,U′,K′) together with that path. The correctness of this sweep is a separate result.

TheoremStatement: Literature-sourcedProof: AI-adaptedjudge pass (gpt-6-luna)Open item page →

The particle Gibbs extended target has the exact smoothing marginal

Statement

Assume the hypotheses of Particle Gibbs extended target and Sequential importance resampling for Feynman–Kac path targets, with multinomial resampling in sampled order, including the finite-horizon support conditions and 0<Lθ<∞ for prior-almost every θ, with 0<C=∫Lθ π0(dθ)<∞. Then φN in Particle Gibbs extended target is a probability measure and its selected (θ,X0:TK) marginal is C−1π0(dθ)γθ,T(dx0:T), the exact joint parameter and smoothing posterior, for every N≥2.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The finite-horizon path model, full-support proposal conditions, SIR particle system, and N≥2.

[A1]

The Axiom of Choice: AC is assumed through the path Radon–Nikodym and probability-kernel suppliers.

[F1]

Particle Gibbs extended target: φN=C−1π0(dθ)ψθ(du)Z^T(u)WTk(u) and X0:Tk is the ancestry-traced path.

[F2]

Sequential importance resampling for Feynman–Kac path targets: the terminal weights sum to one, Z^T is the product of average incremental weights, and the output weighted path measure is π^TN=∑kWTkδX0:Tk.

[F3]

Feynman–Kac path Radon–Nikodym weight: the initial and incremental SIR weights convert each proposal path factor into the corresponding Feynman–Kac path factor under the stated support conditions.

[F4]

Feynman–Kac path targets and normalizers: the normalized smoothing path target is γθ,T/Lθ when 0<Lθ<∞.

Proof

Given: [A1] and the hypotheses in the Statement.

1.1A1F1F2F3givenalgebra

Fix a terminal index k and let b0,…,bT be its ancestry, so Atbt=bt−1. On a positive-weight particle system, [F1] has Z^TWTk=(∏t=0T−1wˉt)wTbT/N. In the forward SIR law [F2], the selected lineage contributes ∏t=1TWt−1bt−1Rt(xt−1bt−1,dxtbt) and its initial proposal ν0(dx0b0). Substituting Wt−1bt−1=wt−1bt−1/(Nwˉt−1) cancels all average-weight denominators, giving φN(dθ,du,k)=π0(dθ)γθ,T(dx0:Tb)CNT+1∏i≠b0ν0(dx0i)∏t=1T∏i≠btWt−1AtiRt(xt−1Ati,dxti). The selected path factors are ν0w0=G0μ0 and Rtwt=GtMt by [F3]; all off-path factors are probability proposal/resampling kernels by [F2]. If any average weight is zero, the extended-target mass and selected target path measure are both zero at that step.

2.1F1F2F3F4step 1.1algebra∎

For each fixed lineage b, the right side of step 1.1 integrates over the off-path variables to C−1π0(dθ)γθ,T(dxb)/NT+1 because those variables have the normalized SIR conditional law. There are exactly NT+1 index sequences b, and summing over them gives total mass one and selected (θ,X0:TK) marginal C−1π0(dθ)γθ,T(dx0:T), which is the posterior by [F4].

TheoremStatement: Literature-sourcedProof: AI-adaptedjudge pass (gpt-6-luna)Open item page →

The conditional particle Gibbs sweep is a Gibbs update

Statement

Under Particle Gibbs extended target and Conditional particle filter for particle Gibbs, for φN-almost every extended state the conditional law of the terminal index K given (θ,U) is Categorical(WT1:N). For posterior-almost every retained parameter-trajectory-lineage value, the remaining particles and ancestor indices have exactly the conditional-particle-filter law in Conditional particle filter for particle Gibbs. In a joint sweep, the parameter draw from its posterior full conditional given the selected path, followed by regeneration of the remaining particles and ancestors from the conditional-particle-filter law, is the joint conditional-block update of those variables given the retained selected path and lineage. The terminal index is then drawn from its categorical conditional given the particle system. These two updates preserve the extended target; the measurable exceptional-state identity fallback specified by the algorithm is included. The selected marginal is the exact joint parameter-path posterior. This invariance does not assert fast mixing.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: A finite-horizon Feynman–Kac target, proposal path support, the multinomial SIR particle system with ancestor labels in sampled order, N≥2, and the extended target φN.

[A1]

The Axiom of Choice: AC is assumed through the Radon–Nikodym weight versions and the standard-Borel disintegration supplying conditional versions.

[F1]

Particle Gibbs extended target: φN=C−1π0(dθ)ψθ(du)Z^T(u)WTK(u); the selected trajectory is the ancestry-traced path of K.

[F2]

Sequential importance resampling for Feynman–Kac path targets: the SIR forward law draws initial particles from ν0, resamples each next ancestor from Wt−1, propagates from the proposal kernel, and uses incremental weights Gt,dMt/dRt.

[F3]

Conditional particle filter for particle Gibbs: it fixes the reference path and lineage, samples every other particle and ancestor by those same SIR conditionals, and fixes each reference ancestor to the preceding reference index.

[F4]

Feynman–Kac path Radon–Nikodym weight: the initial and transition proposal ratios convert ν0 and Rt factors into the Feynman–Kac path measure under the stated support hypotheses.

[F5]

The particle Gibbs extended target has the exact smoothing marginal: φN is a probability measure with the exact joint parameter-smoothing posterior as selected marginal.

[F6]

Disintegration of a joint law on standard borel spaces: under AC a probability on a product of standard-Borel spaces has conditional probability kernels unique outside a single measurable marginal-null set.

Proof

Given: [A1] and the hypotheses in the Statement.

1.1F1F2given

Since the only K-dependent factor in [F1] is WTK, and the final normalized weights sum to one, φN(K=k∣θ,U)=WTk.

2.1A1F1F2step 1.1algebra

Fix a selected index K and trace its lineage b0,…,bT. On the positive-mass support of [F1], write wˉt=N−1∑iwti, so Z^TWTK=(∏t=0T−1wˉt)wTbT/N. In the forward density [F2], the selected lineage contributes ∏t=1TWt−1bt−1Rt(xt−1bt−1,dxtbt) and its initial proposal ν0(dx0b0). Substituting Wt−1bt−1=wt−1bt−1/(Nwˉt−1) cancels each wˉt−1, leaving the selected path factor N−(T+1)ν0(dx0b0)w0b0∏t=1TRt(xt−1bt−1,dxtbt)wtbt. If any average weight is zero, [F1] assigns the configuration zero extended-target mass, so its conditional law need not be specified there.

3.1A1F1F2F3F4step 2.1algebra

By the initial and transition Radon–Nikodym weight identities in [F4], the selected path factor in step 2.1 equals N−(T+1)γθ,T(dx0:Tb). All remaining factors are exactly the conditional SIR laws for the non-reference particles and ancestors in [F3]. Thus, conditional on the selected path and lineage, the remaining particle variables have the stated conditional-particle-filter law; the same factorization makes the lineage indices uniform given the selected path.

4.1A1F1F3F5F6step 3.1construct

By [F5], the extended target is a probability on a standard-Borel product. Apply [F6] to the particle system conditional on its retained parameter-path-lineage variables. The normalized factorization in step 3.1 identifies its conditional kernel outside a single measurable marginal-null set; pull their exceptional events back to the common extended-state space and take the finite union over lineages and update blocks. This union has target mass zero. Its conditional probability given the retained parameter-path-lineage is therefore zero outside a measurable marginal-null set, by the defining integral identity in [F6]; remove that set to obtain D in [F3]. The same restriction excludes infinite or zero denominators on the positive extended-target support. On the exceptional set the algorithm uses the identity transition on the retained state, so it remains an everywhere measurable probability kernel without claiming pointwise Radon–Nikodym identities at null reference values.

4.2F1F3F5step 3.1

In the coordinates consisting of the selected path xb, its lineage b, and the remaining particle variables U−b, the factorization in step 3.1 gives the conditional law of (θ,U−b) given (xb,b). Its leading factor is π0(dθ)γθ,T(dxb)/(CNT+1); the factor N−(T+1) makes b uniform given xb and independent of θ, while the conditional law of U−b given (θ,xb,b) is exactly the conditional-particle-filter law in [F3]. Thus the posterior draw of θ given xb, followed by regeneration of U−b with that filter, samples the joint conditional law of (θ,U−b) given (xb,b). This is a conditional-block update; the parameter draw alone is not asserted to be conditional on the old full particle system.

5.1F1F5step 1.1step 3.1step 4.1step 4.2algebra∎

The block in step 4.2 is the conditional law of (θ,U−b) given the retained (xb,b), so replacing that block preserves φN by the defining conditional-probability identity. By step 1.1, the subsequent draw of K given the regenerated particle system is its conditional law Categorical(WT1:N) and also preserves φN. The exceptional-state identity modification changes the target integral only on a target-null set by step 4.1. Therefore their composition preserves φN, whose selected marginal is the exact posterior by [F5].

DefinitionDefinition: Literature-sourcedProof: Not applicablejudge pass (gpt-6-luna)Open item page →

Backward-simulation particle Gibbs extended target

Definition

Assume the finite-horizon Feynman–Kac model and proposal support conditions in Feynman–Kac path targets and normalizers and Feynman–Kac path Radon–Nikodym weight. Use the multinomial SIR law with ancestor indices in sampled order. Residual resampling is not included in this labeled-density construction. For this variant, additionally assume that the initial target law has a measurable density μθ,0, each target transition Mθ,t has a jointly measurable density fθ,t(xt∣xt−1), and each proposal transition Rθ,t has a density qθ,t(xt∣xt−1), all with respect to declared sigma-finite coordinate reference measures. Let qθ,0 be the proposal initial density with respect to the initial coordinate reference measure. Retain the proper-prior and positive-finite-evidence assumptions of Particle Gibbs extended target. Then the path measure has density γθ,T(x0:T)=μθ,0(x0)G0(x0)∏t=1Tfθ,t(xt∣xt−1)Gt(xt). Require positive finite denominators in the backward probabilities below on the extended-target support.

Write U for all SIR particles and ancestor indices, ψθ(u) for their forward joint density, and j=(j0,…,jT) for a sequence of particle indices. Let x0:Tj be the path formed from states Xtjt, without requiring Atjt=jt−1. For t=0,…,T−1, define Bti(z;U)=Wtifθ,t+1(z∣Xti)∑ℓ=1NWtℓfθ,t+1(z∣Xtℓ). The backward-simulation extended target is φNBS(dθ,du,j)=π0(dθ) γθ,T(x0:Tj)C NT+1ψθ(u)qθ,0(X0j0)∏t=1TWt−1Atjtqθ,t(Xtjt∣Xt−1Atjt)∏t=1TBt−1Atjt(Xtjt;U). where the displayed expression is a density with respect to the common particle reference measures, counting measure on ancestor and selected indices, and the prior measure on θ. The complete SIR forward density ψθ includes the normalized ancestor probabilities and proposal densities for every particle. This is the backward-simulation extension of the particle Gibbs target; its exact selected-path marginal and Gibbs conditionals are proved in The backward-simulation sweep is a Gibbs update ↗.

Conditional-version convention

Interpret all displayed ratios on their common positive finite denominator sets and set the density to zero elsewhere. The theorem below proves these versions agree with the extended target and its conditional laws almost everywhere. By Disintegration of a joint law on standard borel spaces, fix a common measurable full-posterior-measure good set DBS of retained parameter-path-index values on which the normalized conditional auxiliary filter and backward-index formulas are valid. This also excludes exceptional reference values of the chosen density/Radon–Nikodym versions. Off this set, the sweep is the identity on the retained state. A reference value being in topological support is not a replacement for this almost-everywhere convention.

AlgorithmAlgorithm: Literature-sourcedProof: Not applicableOpen item page →

Particle Gibbs with backward simulation

Definition

Use the density, support, and positive-denominator hypotheses of Backward-simulation particle Gibbs extended target. Select multinomial resampling with ancestor indices in sampled order. Fix N≥2. Before updating, require the retained parameter-path-index triple (θ,x0:Tj,j) to be in DBS, the set fixed in the Conditional-version convention of Backward-simulation particle Gibbs extended target; otherwise return the unchanged extended state. If a required ratio is undefined or nonfinite, or a required denominator or normalizing sum is zero or nonfinite during a sweep, return the old retained state. A finite zero density ratio is valid: assign that particle zero weight and continue. The factorization theorem proves that the stated failures have conditional probability zero on the designated full-measure set.

A backward-simulation sweep takes the current extended state (θ,U,j), where j=(j0,…,jT) selects the reference path x0:T∗=x0:Tj from U. It returns the updated extended state (θ′,U′,J) and selected path x0:TJ. First draw θ′ from its exact posterior full conditional given x0:T∗ and the observations. If (θ′,x∗,j) is outside DBS, return the old extended state.

The initial proposal, non-reference resampling and propagation, and SIR weight updates use Conditional particle filter for particle Gibbs in its density setting. Because j is a backward index sequence rather than an ancestral lineage, the reference particle's ancestor is sampled from B below instead of being fixed to the preceding reference index.

  1. Initialize the conditional auxiliary particle filter at time 0: set X0j0=x0∗ and independently draw X0i∼qθ′,0 for i≠j0. For each i, compute the SIR initial weight a0i=μθ′,0(X0i)G0(X0i)/qθ′,0(X0i). If ∑ia0i>0, set W0i=a0i/∑ℓa0ℓ; otherwise use the SIR zero-weight convention W0i=1/N.
  2. For t=1,…,T, do the following in order:
    1. For each i≠jt, draw Ati categorically with probabilities Wt−11:N and then draw Xti∼qθ′,t(⋅∣Xt−1Ati).
    2. Set Xtjt=xt∗ and draw its ancestor Atjt categorically with probabilities Bt−11:N(xt∗;U′).
    3. For every i, compute ati=Gt(Xti)fθ′,t(Xti∣Xt−1Ati)/qθ′,t(Xti∣Xt−1Ati). If ∑iati>0, set Wti=ati/∑ℓatℓ; otherwise use the SIR zero-weight convention Wti=1/N.
  3. Draw JT categorically with probabilities WT1:N. For t=T−1,T−2,…,0, draw Jt with probabilities Bt1:N(Xt+1Jt+1;U′). Return the updated extended state and selected path.

The zero-weight conventions above define normalized weights as in Sequential importance resampling for Feynman–Kac path targets. Retain zero individual density ratios, importance weights, and backward probabilities. If a required ratio is undefined or nonfinite, a backward-probability denominator is zero or nonfinite, or a weight sum is zero or nonfinite, return the old extended state as specified above. On the designated good set these exceptional events have conditional probability zero. For T=0, Step 2 is empty and Step 3 draws J0 from W0.

The conditional auxiliary particle filter and the backward simulator are the two particle-coordinate conditionals of Backward-simulation particle Gibbs extended target. Their Gibbs interpretation and exact posterior marginal are separate proved properties.

TheoremStatement: Literature-sourcedProof: AI-adaptedOpen item page →

The backward-simulation sweep is a Gibbs update

Statement

Under Backward-simulation particle Gibbs extended target and Particle Gibbs with backward simulation, for posterior-almost every retained state in the stated good set, the conditional law of the remaining particle system given (θ,x∗,j) is the stated conditional auxiliary particle filter, and the conditional law of the index sequence given (θ,U) is the backward simulator with terminal weights WT and backward probabilities Bt. In a joint sweep, the posterior draw of θ′ given the selected path, followed by conditional auxiliary-particle filter regeneration, is the joint conditional-block update of the parameter and remaining particle variables given the retained path and index sequence. The backward-index draw is then its conditional update given (θ′,U′). The extended target is a probability measure whose selected (θ,x∗) marginal is the exact joint smoothing posterior. With the measurable identity fallback on exceptional retained states, these updates preserve the extended target for every fixed N≥2. No fast-mixing or ergodicity claim follows.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The density-based finite-horizon target, full target-path support, positive finite backward denominators, and the multinomial SIR particle law with ancestor labels in sampled order.

[A1]

The Axiom of Choice: AC is assumed through the Radon–Nikodym path weights and standard-Borel disintegration.

[F1]

Backward-simulation particle Gibbs extended target: the extended density is the target path density times the SIR forward density divided by the selected particles' proposal densities, with the product of backward probabilities Bt and uniform index factor N−(T+1).

[F2]

Particle Gibbs with backward simulation: the conditional auxiliary particle filter fixes reference states, draws their ancestors from B, and uses SIR transitions for the other particles; the backward simulator draws JT by WT and then each Jt by Bt.

[F3]

Feynman–Kac path Radon–Nikodym weight: on target support, each proposal weight is the target path factor divided by the corresponding proposal factor.

[F4]

Feynman–Kac path targets and normalizers: γθ,T is the unnormalized state-path measure, and C−1π0(dθ)γθ,T(dx) is a probability posterior when 0<C<∞.

[F5]

Disintegration of a joint law on standard borel spaces: under AC conditional probability kernels exist and are unique outside a single measurable marginal-null set on standard-Borel products.

Proof

Given: The hypotheses in the Statement.

1.1A1F1F3givenalgebra

Write wti for the unnormalized importance weight of particle i using its actual ancestor Ati. On the proposal-support set in [F3], qθ,0(X0i)w0i=μθ,0(X0i)G0(X0i) and qθ,t(Xti∣Xt−1Ati)wti=Gt(Xti)fθ,t(Xti∣Xt−1Ati). These product identities include zero weights and zero transition densities; they require no division by an alternative-parent transition density. Put St=∑iwti and Ht(z)=∑iwt−1ifθ,t(z∣Xt−1i). Whenever the prescribed normalizers are positive and finite, Wti=wti/St and Bt−1i(z;U)=wt−1ifθ,t(z∣Xt−1i)/Ht(z).

1.2A1F1F2F3algebra

Fix a backward index sequence j and its reference path. Expanding the forward density ψθ in [F1] and canceling the selected initial proposal and each selected joint ancestor-proposal factor gives φNBS(dθ,du,j)=π0(dθ)γθ,T(dx0:Tj)CNT+1∏i≠j0qθ,0(x0i)∏t=1T[∏i≠jt(Wt−1Atiqθ,t(xti∣xt−1Ati))]∏t=1TBt−1Atjt(xtjt;U). The bracketed factors are exactly the non-reference resample-and-propagate law and the categorical backward ancestor law in [F2]. For target-almost every retained path, its initial target factor and all its potentials are positive. The reference initial weight is therefore positive on the supplied proposal-support set. Inductively, a reference ancestor drawn from B has positive preceding weight and transition density, so its new importance weight is positive there as well. Thus each weight sum remains positive; zero individual free-particle weights cause no failure. The prescribed support and finite-denominator conventions exclude the remaining exceptional ratios almost everywhere. Each categorical or proposal factor then integrates to one, so this is the normalized conditional auxiliary particle filter.

2.1A1F1F2F3step 1.1algebra

Fix (θ,U) on its forward-support set with positive finite required normalizers. In [F1], cancel each selected ancestor probability against the numerator of its backward factor, then use the product identities in step 1.1 to absorb each potential into the actual-parent weight. The extended density becomes π0(dθ)ψθ(u)CNT+1w0j0∏t=1Twtjtfθ,t(Xtjt∣Xt−1jt−1)Ht(Xtjt)/St−1=π0(dθ)ψθ(u)CNT+1(∏t=0TSt)WTjT∏t=1TBt−1jt−1(Xtjt;U). This equality merely regroups products; no weight or transition density is divided out. A zero selected weight or path-transition factor gives zero mass on both sides. Index sequences encountering a zero backward denominator likewise have zero mass: a positive terminal weight has a positive actual-parent factor, and a positive backward draw recursively has positive preceding weight. Set these zero-mass terms to zero as prescribed by [F1]. The prefactor is independent of j, and summing the remaining factors from j0 through jT gives one by their categorical normalization. Thus the index conditional is exactly the backward simulator in [F2], including T=0, when the product is empty.

2.2F1F4step 1.2algebra

By step 1.2, for each fixed j the other particle variables have a normalized conditional law. The leading factor is C−1π0(dθ)γθ,T(dxj)/NT+1 by [F4]. There are NT+1 index sequences, so integrating the remaining variables and summing over them gives total mass one and selected (θ,x∗) marginal C−1π0(dθ)γθ,T(dx∗).

3.1A1F1F2F5step 1.2step 2.1step 2.2construct

The standard-Borel state and particle spaces permit [F5] to be applied to the probability target in step 2.2. The normalized factorizations in steps 1.2 and 2.1 identify its conditional kernels outside measurable marginal-null sets. Pull exceptional events back to the common extended-state space and take their finite union over index sequences and sweep blocks; its target mass is zero. By the conditional integral identity in [F5], its conditional probability given the retained variables is zero outside a measurable marginal-null set. Removing this set gives the good set specified in [F1]–[F2]. On its complement the algorithm retains the old state; undefined ratio or normalization events within a conditional factorization have zero conditional mass on this good set. Thus the stated formulas and their measurable fallback define conditional-law versions almost everywhere, without assuming arbitrary reference points admit valid density ratios.

4.1F1F2F4step 1.2step 2.1step 2.2step 3.1∎

In coordinates consisting of the selected path xj, its index sequence j, and the remaining particle variables U−j, the factorization in step 1.2 shows that the conditional law of (θ,U−j) given (xj,j) is obtained by first drawing θ from its posterior full conditional given xj and then drawing U−j from the conditional auxiliary-particle-filter law. The factor N−(T+1) is constant in θ and xj, so the old particle system has been marginalized in this joint conditional block. Thus the first two updates in the algorithm, parameter draw and filter regeneration, together preserve the extended target. By step 2.1, the following backward-index draw is the conditional law of j given (θ,U) and also preserves that target. The exceptional-state identity modifications do not change its integral by step 3.1, and the selected marginal in step 2.2 remains exact.

5 · Examples, counterexamples and false statements

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