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SCM, DAGs, adjustment
1 · Prerequisites
- Absolute and Conditional Convergence; Rearrangement; Products
- Binary Operations, Monoids, Groups and Subgroups
- Compactness in Metric Spaces
- Complete Metrizability, Čech-Completeness, and Baire Category
- Completeness, Completion, and Uniform Continuity
- Conditional Distributions and Regular Conditional Probability
- Conditional Expectation
- Construction of the Natural Numbers
- Construction of the Real Numbers via Cauchy Sequences
- Construction of the Real Numbers via Dedekind Cuts
- Continuity, IVT, EVT, and Uniform Continuity
- Cosets, Index and Lagrange's Theorem
- Countability and Uncountability
- Countability Axioms and Cardinal Functions
- Divisibility, Euclidean Domains, Principal Ideal Domains and Unique Factorisation
- Finite Counting, Factorials and Binomial Coefficients
- Foundations of the Real Numbers for Analysis
- Ideals, Quotient Rings and the Isomorphism Theorems for Rings
- Independence Borel Cantelli and Zero One Laws
- Infinite Product Measures and Kolmogorov Extension
- Lebesgue-Stieltjes Measures and Distribution Functions
- Limits of Real Functions
- limsup, liminf, and Subsequential Limits
- Markov Kernels and Markov Chains
- Measurable Functions and Simple Approximation
- Measures and Their Basic Properties
- Metric Spaces
- Monotone Functions, Discontinuities, and Continuity Sets
- Monotone Sequences, Bolzano-Weierstrass, and Cauchy Completeness
- Normal Subgroups and Quotient Groups
- Order, Zorn's Lemma, and the Axiom of Choice
- Outer Measure and the Caratheodory Extension Theorem
- Polynomial Rings, the Division Algorithm and Roots
- Potential outcomes and identification
- Power Series and Real-Analytic Functions
- Probability Spaces Random Variables and Expectation
- Product Measures and the Fubini Tonelli Theorems
- Properties of the Integral and the Working FTC
- Relations, Functions, and Quotients
- Rings, Subrings, Integral Domains and Fields
- Roots, Rational Powers, and Classical Inequalities
- Separation Axioms: the Hierarchy
- Sequences and Limits
- Sequences and Series of Functions; Uniform Convergence
- Series: Convergence and the Nonnegative Tests
- Sigma Algebras and Borel Sets
- Signed and Complex Measures Hahn and Jordan
- Simple Field Extensions and the Construction of the Complex Numbers
- Standard-Borel Real Codings and Determining Classes
- Statistical Experiments, Models and Identifiability
- Subspaces, Products, and Quotients
- Suprema and Infima
- The Cantor Set, Baire Category, and Measure Zero in ℝ
- The Derivative and the Mean Value Theorems
- The Exponential Function
- The Lebesgue Integral and the Convergence Theorems
- The Logarithm and General Powers
- The Lᵖ Spaces Holder Minkowski and Riesz Fischer
- The Radon Nikodym Theorem and Lebesgue Decomposition
- The Riemann Integral: Definition and Integrability
- The Topology of Euclidean Space
- The ZFC Axioms and the Basic Set Constructions
- Topological Spaces and Continuity
- Topology of ℝ
- Triangularisation, Generalised Eigenspaces and Jordan Canonical Form
- Vector Spaces, Linear Subspaces, Span and Direct Sums
2 · Summary
This page specifies finite recursive structural causal models on full DAGs, including latent vertices, their topological probability-kernel law, and the global Markov implication from factorization to d-separation conditional independence. Faithfulness is an additional property of a particular law; these results do not infer missing arrows from observed independences or characterize Markov equivalence. Backdoor and front-door adjustment are sufficient identification conditions evaluated on the full graph. They do not certify that a scientific graph or exogenous law is empirically adequate. Pointwise adjustment claims are restricted to treatment atoms with positive probability; continuous-treatment regular conditional formulas are only almost-everywhere statements without further version assumptions.
3 · Logical flowchart
4 · Definitions, theorems and proofs
Paths, active paths, and d-separation in a finite DAG
Definition
A finite directed acyclic graph (DAG) is a finite vertex set with an arrow set and no directed cycle. A path from to is a finite sequence of distinct vertices beginning at and ending at in which each consecutive pair is joined by an arrow in either direction; the arrows are not required to point along the sequence. An internal vertex of a path is a collider on that path when the two arrows on the path both point into it, and is a noncollider otherwise. A vertex is a descendant of if there is a directed path from to ; for this definition includes itself as well as its descendants.
For pairwise disjoint vertex sets , a path joining to is active given when every internal noncollider is outside and every internal collider has at least one member of in . The set d-separates and in when no path joining to is active given ; write in . The empty set of vertices is allowed for any of ; in particular d-separation is vacuous if either endpoint set is empty.
For , is obtained by deleting every arrow whose tail lies in , and by deleting every arrow whose head lies in . These are graph operations only; they do not by themselves specify a probability law under intervention.
Finite products of probability kernels are probability kernels
Statement
Let and for be measurable spaces, with , and let be probability kernels with the same source. There is a unique probability kernel whose evaluation on every measurable rectangle is For , the target is the empty-product singleton and is its point mass. For , the product sigma-algebra is the recursive finite product sigma-algebra.
Facts & Assumptions
Given: The finite family of probability kernels and the stated product-space conventions.
The product of two probability measures exists, is a probability measure, and has the rectangle formula. For sigma-finite factors, the product measure exists, has the rectangle formula, is sigma-finite, and is unique
Measurable rectangles generate the finite product sigma-algebra. The product sigma-algebra and its finite iterates
Finite measures agreeing on a generating pi-system agree everywhere. Measures agreeing on a generating pi-system are equal under an increasing finite-measure exhaustion from that pi-system
A lambda-system containing a generating pi-system contains its generated sigma-algebra. Dynkin's pi-lambda theorem
Proof
Given: The hypotheses in the statement.
If , use the point mass on the empty-product singleton; if , use . For , fix and build the product recursively: start with , and at stage apply [F1] to the probability measure already constructed on the first factors and the probability measure . This constructs a probability measure on the recursively defined first factors, with the product rectangle formula. Finite induction gives and its formula for every .
For a rectangle , step 1.1 gives , a finite product of measurable real functions, hence measurable. Let be the product-measurable sets for which is measurable. The class contains the whole space and all rectangles. If , then is measurable. For pairwise disjoint , countable additivity gives , a pointwise limit of measurable functions. Thus is a lambda-system. Rectangles form a pi-system and generate the product sigma-algebra by [F2], so [F4] gives . Hence is a probability kernel.
Any other probability kernel with the rectangle formula agrees with on the generating rectangle pi-system for each fixed . The measures are finite, so uniqueness [F3] gives equality on the full product sigma-algebra at every . This proves uniqueness, including the empty product case.
Recursive structural causal models on finite DAGs
Definition
Fix a finite DAG and a specified topological ordering (every arrow points from an earlier to a later vertex). Partition into observed vertices and latent vertices . For each , specify a measurable state space , a measurable exogenous space , a jointly measurable structural function and an exogenous random element with values in . Here ; the empty product is a singleton. The model is Markovian when the finite family is mutually independent. No parametric form or distributional truth is asserted. Correlated disturbances may be represented by adding their common causes as latent vertices, after which the exogenous family in the expanded model is required to be mutually independent.
Recursion in the topological order defines the endogenous random elements uniquely by . The full-joint law is the law of ; the observed law is its marginal law on . An observed-only DAG factorization is asserted only when or when an additional stated latent-variable condition proves it.
For and a value , means replace only the equations indexed by by the constants , leaving every other structural function and every exogenous law unchanged. Recursion then defines counterfactual values for every vertex ; the interventional law is their joint law. The response map is jointly measurable, by induction through the finite topological order and joint measurability of each . This permits evaluation at a random treatment value, such as . When , write for the response under . If the factual treatment is , then on recursion gives for every vertex .
The ancestral moral graph of a DAG
Definition
For , its ancestral set is where paths of length zero are allowed, so . The induced directed subgraph on this set keeps exactly the arrows of whose two endpoints lie in . Its moral graph is the undirected simple graph obtained by replacing every arrow by an undirected edge and joining every distinct pair of parents of a common child by an undirected edge; loops and duplicate edges are discarded. This undirected graph is the ancestral moral graph on and is denoted .
Faithfulness of a law to a DAG
Definition
Assume AC, and let a joint law on the measurable vertex variables of a finite DAG be given. The law is faithful to if, for every triple of pairwise disjoint vertex sets , the conditional independence implies that d-separates and in . This is the converse of the global Markov implication; faithfulness is a separate assumption on the specified law, not a consequence of DAG factorization. No claim about Markov equivalence, skeletons, or unshielded colliders is included. Here is the finite random vector with the finite-product sigma-algebra; for it is the unique random element of the empty-product singleton.
A Markovian recursive SCM has a topological kernel factorization
Statement
Let a finite Markovian recursive SCM be as in Recursive structural causal models on finite DAGs, with topological order . For each , let be the law of and define Then is a probability kernel from the parent-coordinate product to . If , the full-joint law (and the only possible interventional law) is the point mass on the empty-product singleton. For , the full-joint law is the iterated topological composition For and an intervention , the same formula holds with the factor replaced by the point mass for each ; all other factors are unchanged. Marginalizing latent coordinates means taking the pushforward to and does not in general produce a factorization on the observed-only induced graph.
Facts & Assumptions
Given: The Markovian recursive SCM and its finite topological ordering.
Independent finite families with at least one member have the finite product joint law. Independent random elements have product joint law
Integration of a nonnegative product-measurable function against a probability kernel is measurable. Measurability of integration against a kernel
Composition of specified probability kernels is a probability kernel and finite composition is associative. Composition of probability kernels, Kernel composition is well defined and associative
Fubini's theorem permits iterated integration for integrable functions on finite product probability spaces. Fubini's theorem for L^1 functions on a sigma-finite product
Finite products of probability kernels with a common source are probability kernels. Finite products of probability kernels are probability kernels
Probability measures agreeing on a generating pi-system with a finite common exhaustion agree everywhere. Measures agreeing on a generating pi-system are equal under an increasing finite-measure exhaustion from that pi-system
The finite products use the recursive product sigma-algebras and their measurable coordinate projections. The product sigma-algebra and its finite iterates
Proof
Given: The hypotheses in the statement.
For fixed parent values , the map is measurable, so its pushforward of is a probability measure. For each measurable , is the integral of the jointly measurable indicator against the constant probability kernel ; [F2] makes this evaluation measurable in . Hence is a probability kernel, including when the parent set is empty.
Suppose . By [F1], the joint law of the exogenous vector is . For , let , with the constant empty tuple. Fix a bounded measurable function of and a measurable set . The recursive construction makes the earlier coordinates functions only of . The integrand does not depend on later exogenous coordinates, whose probability factors integrate to one. The finite product law of the first exogenous coordinates and Fubini on therefore permit integration first in while fixing the earlier coordinates, giving For , the earlier product is the singleton and is constant; the parent tuple is empty. For every , all parent coordinates occur in by the topological order. Thus the displayed identity gives the conditional-law testing identity needed below.
If , the endogenous vector is the empty tuple and its law is the point mass on the empty-product singleton, as stated. Suppose . The law of is , since its parent tuple is empty and step 1.2 applies. Inductively, suppose is the law of , for some . Let be the coordinate projection from the preceding product to the parent-coordinate product; it is measurable because preimages of measurable rectangles are coordinate cylinders in the recursive finite product sigma-algebra [F7]. Pull back to the probability kernel on that same source. The identity Dirac kernel and have common source. By [F5] their product is a probability kernel into the preceding product times , with rectangle values . Compose it with , regarded as a probability kernel from a singleton, using [F3]; this gives a probability measure satisfying By step 1.2, the actual law of has these same values on every measurable rectangle. Both are probability measures, and the rectangles form a generating pi-system whose whole-space member gives a finite common exhaustion, so [F6] makes the measures equal. Induction gives the displayed iterated topological composition as the full-joint law.
Under with , the coordinates in are constants and their conditional kernels are ; every other equation still uses the same independent exogenous coordinate and the same parent values, with an intervened parent replaced by its fixed constant. At an intervened vertex the conditional-law identity is immediate because the coordinate is the fixed value ; at every other vertex the Fubini calculation of step 1.2 applies with the intervened parent coordinates fixed at their assigned values. Repeating the extension construction of step 2.1 with these kernels proves the interventional product. For the only intervention is empty and the law remains the point mass already described. The observed law is the pushforward under coordinate projection; integrating out the latent coordinates is marginalization and creates no asserted observed-only DAG factorization.
Every active finite route contains an active path
Statement
In a finite DAG, a route is a finite sequence of vertices with consecutive vertices adjacent by an arrow in either direction; repeated vertices are allowed. Collider and noncollider status is assigned to each internal occurrence using its two incident route arrows. A route is active given if each noncollider occurrence is outside and each collider occurrence is an ancestor of , including membership in . If an active route joins vertices with , then an active distinct-vertex path joins and given .
Facts & Assumptions
The active-path criterion and finite acyclic graph conventions are those of Paths, active paths, and d-separation in a finite DAG.
Proof
Given: An active route from to and the hypotheses in the statement.
Among active routes with these endpoints choose one of minimum length. If a repeated vertex occurs at an endpoint, discard the initial segment through the later occurrence of , or the terminal segment from the earlier occurrence of . Endpoints are outside , and all retained internal occurrences have their old incidences, so the shortened route is active. Consequently any repetition in a minimum route consists of two internal occurrences of a vertex . Delete the segment between two such occurrences and identify them. Only the two incidences at the joined occurrence of change. If , its old occurrences were both colliders, so the joined occurrence is still a collider. If and the joined occurrence is a noncollider, it is allowed; if it is a collider and is an ancestor of , it is also allowed.
The sole remaining possibility is that the join makes a collider although is not an ancestor of . Both original occurrences were then noncolliders. The retained edge before the first occurrence points into , so its deleted departure edge must point out of ; likewise the deleted arrival edge at the second occurrence points out of , since its retained departure edge points into . Traverse the deleted segment starting with its arrow out of . There must be a first place where its arrows cease to point forward: the final arrow points backward, and an entirely forward return to would also contradict acyclicity. At that first change is a collider , reached from by a directed segment. A directed segment in a DAG has no repetitions. Activity of the original route makes an ancestor of , hence an ancestor of , a contradiction. Thus every loop deletion above is active and strictly shorter, contradicting minimality. The minimum route is therefore a path.
Source notes
Pearl's d-separation criterion supplies the occurrence-wise activity conditions. The loop-junction argument above is supplied locally; the source's statement of the moralization test is not used in place of this proof.
D-separation is separation in the ancestral moral graph
Statement
For disjoint , d-separates and in if and only if deleting from leaves no undirected path from to .
Facts & Assumptions
Given: The finite DAG, disjoint vertex sets, and graph conventions above.
A path is active exactly when it has no conditioned noncollider and every collider has a conditioned descendant, including itself. Paths, active paths, and d-separation in a finite DAG
The ancestral moral graph retains ancestors of , forgets arrow directions, and joins distinct parents of a common child. The ancestral moral graph of a DAG
Every active finite route between distinct endpoints outside has an active path. Every active finite route contains an active path
Proof
Given: The hypotheses in the statement.
Suppose an active path joins to . From any noncollider follow an outgoing path edge forward until reaching an endpoint or a collider. The reached endpoint is in , while a reached collider is an ancestor of by activity. Thus every path vertex is in . Replace each collider segment by its moral edge ; colliders cannot be consecutive along a path. The resulting walk avoids , since all retained internal vertices were noncolliders and the endpoints are outside . Loop deletion in this undirected graph yields a moral path avoiding .
Conversely suppose a moral path avoiding joins to . Keep its skeleton edges, and expand each remaining moral edge using a common child as . This is a finite route; its inserted occurrences are colliders and all its other occurrences are outside . Every collider is in . Call a collider occurrence bad if its vertex is not an ancestor of . Among routes joining to with every vertex in and every noncollider outside , minimize the number of bad collider occurrences; the expanded route makes the class nonempty. If is a bad occurrence, it is an ancestor of some . A directed path from to avoids , since otherwise would be an ancestor of . If , replace the whole prefix up to this occurrence of by that directed path traversed backward; if , replace the suffix by the path traversed forward. If , simply terminate at that occurrence. Otherwise the retained incident arrow points into and the new incident arrow points out of , making it an allowed noncollider. All new internal chain occurrences are noncolliders outside , and other retained occurrences have their original incidences. Intersections of the chain with the retained segment cause repetitions only; no loops are deleted in this step, and activity is defined occurrence by occurrence. At least the selected bad occurrence disappears and no new bad occurrence is introduced, contradicting minimality. Thus the minimum route is active. Its endpoints are distinct because are disjoint, and [F3] gives an active path with those endpoints.
An active path therefore exists if and only if there is a moral path avoiding . Negating this equivalence proves the claim. If either endpoint set is empty, neither type of path exists and both separation statements hold.
Conditional independence under kernel extension and conditioning
Statement
Assume AC. Let be random elements in arbitrary measurable spaces. Suppose and that the joint law of is obtained from the law of by a probability kernel depending only on . Then No regular conditional law on an unspecified measurable space is assumed: is supplied in the hypotheses.
Facts & Assumptions
Conditional independence is the bounded-function conditional-product identity, and conditional expectation is determined by its event integrals. Conditional independence given a sigma-algebra, Conditional expectation given a sigma algebra
Integration of a bounded measurable function against a supplied probability kernel is measurable. Measure kernel and probability kernel, Measurability of integration against a kernel
Dynkin's theorem, simple approximation and monotone convergence extend identities on generating rectangles to bounded measurable functions. Dynkin's pi-lambda theorem, Every nonnegative measurable function is the increasing limit of simple measurable functions, Monotone convergence for the integral
Conditional expectations satisfy the tower property under AC. Tower property of conditional expectation, The Axiom of Choice
Proof
Given: The random elements, supplied kernel and conditional independence in the statement.
Fix bounded measurable and set . Conditional independence implies for every bounded measurable : test its conditional-product identity against and then the defining conditional expectation of . Rectangle indicators generate , so [F3] gives for every bounded -measurable . Equivalently . All extensions can be made for each fixed : the class of testing events is a lambda-system by complements and disjoint countable unions; bounded versions and monotone convergence justify the sums. No common null set for all functions is needed.
For bounded measurable define , bounded and measurable by [F2]. Kernel integration gives , where the middle identity is step 1.1. Thus . In taking out bounded measurable conditioning factors here, the event-integral definition first proves the rule for simple factors and [F3] proves it for bounded factors. This proves the first claimed independence. Testing the same calculation with rectangle factors in and using [F3] also gives .
Since is -measurable, [F4] yields . For bounded , conditioning first on in step 2.1 and then on gives . The bounded-factor rule justified in step 2.1 applies at both stages. This is the second claimed independence by [F1]. Singleton state spaces and constant kernels obey the same identities.
Source notes
Aldous–Chewi Lecture 9, Definition 9.1 and the complete Splice Lemma 9.2 proof give the conditional-expectation testing method. Their Borel-space disintegration assertion is not imported: the present lemma assumes its kernel and proves the stated arbitrary-space extension locally.
DAG factorization implies the global Markov property
Statement
Assume AC. Let be random elements in measurable spaces whose joint law is generated, in a topological order of the finite DAG , by probability kernels . For pairwise disjoint , if d-separates and in , then This is the global Markov implication. Its converse is the separate faithfulness condition in Faithfulness of a law to a DAG.
Facts & Assumptions
Given: A finite DAG-kernel factorization, measurable vertex spaces, and AC.
D-separation is equivalent to separation by in the ancestral moral graph on . D-separation is separation in the ancestral moral graph
In the moral graph each family is a clique, because every pair of parents of is joined by a moral edge. The ancestral moral graph of a DAG
A probability-kernel extension depending only on one side and the separator preserves conditional independence; conditioning on the extended variable also preserves independence of the two original sides. Conditional independence under kernel extension and conditioning
Supplied probability kernels have normalized finite associative composition. Composition of probability kernels, Kernel composition is well defined and associative
Conditional independence is the bounded-function conditional-product identity. Conditional independence given a sigma-algebra, Conditional expectation given a sigma algebra
Finite measures agreeing on a generating rectangle pi-system agree on the product sigma-algebra. Measures agreeing on a generating pi-system are equal under an increasing finite-measure exhaustion from that pi-system, The product sigma-algebra and its finite iterates
Proof
Given: The hypotheses in the statement.
Put . Marginalize vertices outside in reverse topological order: at removal each has no surviving child, so integration of its kernel gives one. The marginal on is consequently generated by the original kernels at vertices of , with their original parent sets. Reverse-order integration is elimination of final conditional kernels using [F4], not an interchange of arbitrary dependent integrations.
We prove a stronger finite-graph assertion: if a DAG's full moral graph has a partition of all vertices into with no edge from to , its kernel law satisfies . Induct on the number of vertices. For no vertices the variables are constants and the conditional-product identity is immediate. Choose a sink (the last vertex in a topological order). Marginalizing retains all other kernels and leaves the DAG with deleted; its moral graph is a subgraph of the former moral graph, so the remaining partition obeys the induction hypothesis. The original joint law is this marginal extended by : no other kernel depends on , as is a sink. This identity follows first on rectangles from the iterated composition, and then on their generated sigma-algebra by finite-measure uniqueness.
If , all its parents are in , since a parent in would give a forbidden skeleton edge. Apply the first conclusion of [F3] to the induction hypothesis with left vector , right vector and separator , extending the left vector by . This proves the assertion. If , symmetry gives the same result. If , its parents outside lie wholly in or wholly in : two parents on opposite sides would be married by a forbidden moral edge. Choose that side (either side when there are no such parents). The induction hypothesis gives independence of given , and the second conclusion of [F3], applied to , gives independence given . Thus even a conditioned vertex's kernel is retained as a kernel extension before conditioning. This completes all cases of the induction.
By [F1], the moral graph on with deleted has no component meeting both and . Let be the union of components meeting , and . Then , , and no moral edge joins to . Steps 1.2 and 2.1 applied to the marginal law of step 1.1 give independence of given . Restrict its bounded-function identity to functions of to obtain the claim. Empty endpoint sets yield constant functions and satisfy the same identity. No density, positivity, faithfulness, or regular conditional distribution on an arbitrary measurable space is used.
The backdoor criterion implies conditional exchangeability
Statement
Assume AC and a finite Markovian recursive SCM on . Let be pairwise disjoint vertex sets, with every vertex of a nondescendant of . Define the response-family sigma-algebra If d-separates and in , then For each fixed intervention value , this implies . No treatment-positivity condition is needed.
Facts & Assumptions
Given: The SCM, disjoint , the nondescendant condition, and d-separation in .
A Markovian recursive SCM factors over its topological kernels, also after any supplied intervention. Recursive structural causal models on finite DAGs, A Markovian recursive SCM has a topological kernel factorization
D-separation implies conditional independence for every finite DAG-kernel factorization. DAG factorization implies the global Markov property
Conditional expectation is specified by testing integrals over the conditioning sigma-algebra, and conditional independence is the associated conditional-product identity. Conditional expectation given a sigma algebra, Conditional independence given a sigma-algebra, The Axiom of Choice
Dynkin's theorem extends an identity from a generating pi-system to its generated sigma-algebra; increasing nonnegative integrals pass to the limit. Dynkin's pi-lambda theorem, Monotone convergence for the integral, Every nonnegative measurable function is the increasing limit of simple measurable functions
D-separation is separator separation in the ancestral moral graph. The ancestral moral graph of a DAG, D-separation is separation in the ancestral moral graph
Proof
Given: The hypotheses in the statement.
Fix finitely many intervention values . Build one finite graph with the factual ancestors of and, for each , the equation ancestors needed for after replacing every -input by its constant . Omit those constant treatment nodes from the response graph. Share every nondescendant of across the factual and response systems; copy every remaining nonintervened response vertex separately for each . Sharing is legitimate because nondescendants have no treatment ancestor and hence their equations and values are unchanged by intervention, by topological induction. Add one root per used original equation, shared by all copies of that equation. Every endogenous graph vertex uses its original structural function, with constants substituted for treatment parents in the response system, so deterministic point-mass kernels together with the independent root laws give a topological kernel factorization of the joint factual/response law by [F1]. The graph is acyclic: roots come first and each endogenous copy follows its original topological rank. Restrict to ancestors in of factual and response ; this retains the same endpoint law.
Write and . Every nonroot vertex retained in projects to an original vertex in . For a response ancestor, its directed route to has no treatment vertex, because treatment inputs were constants. For a factual ancestor of , its route has no treatment vertex by the nondescendant hypothesis. For a factual ancestor of , truncate its directed route at the first treatment vertex: this has no outgoing treatment arrow. Each of these gives ancestry in . Moreover, if a factual retained vertex is a descendant of , it cannot be an ancestor of , so there is a directed route from to a treatment vertex, truncated at its first treatment occurrence. This route lies in and avoids , since every vertex on it is a descendant of . Hence is in a connected component meeting in the moral graph on with deleted.
By the backdoor hypothesis and [F5], no component of that original moral graph meets both and . Assign each nonroot vertex of outside to the component of its projected original vertex. All parent-child and parent-parent moral edges of outside preserve the two sides, as follows. A response family has no treatment parent, so its projected nonroot family is a clique already present in the moral graph of . A factual family without a treatment parent is likewise such a clique. If a factual family has a treatment parent, its child is a factual descendant of retained as an ancestor of , hence is in a component meeting by step 2.1. Every nonconditioned nontreatment parent is joined to that child by an arrow retained in ; every treatment parent is itself in a component meeting . These family vertices therefore all lie on the treatment side (although the treatment components need not be the same). This exhausts skeleton edges and moral edges between nonroot vertices.
Assign a root with to the side of its projected child : all copies of have that same projection. Its moral neighbors are its equation children and their other parents, and the family analysis in step 3.1 puts every neighbor outside on the same side. If , the child is a single shared nondescendant node, not copied, and has no treatment parent. Its nonconditioned original parents form a clique in . Assign to their common component side when there are any such parents, and arbitrarily otherwise; after is deleted it has no neighbor on the opposite side. There are no root-root moral edges, since each equation uses one exogenous root. Let the left side consist of the components meeting and roots assigned to that side, and let the right side be everything else outside . Thus deleting from the full moral graph of the retained graph leaves no edge between the sides. Factual is on the left and every response is on the right. In particular no ancestral moral path connects these endpoint sets, and [F5] gives their d-separation in . By its kernel factorization and [F2], is conditionally independent of the finite vector given . This argument handles shared roots and shared nondescendants through moral families and does not assume that a projected copied path preserves collider status.
Fix a bounded nonnegative measurable . Response events depending on finitely many coordinates form a pi-system generating . Step 4.1 gives the conditional-product identity for their indicators. The response events for which it holds form a lambda-system: complements subtract the identity for the whole space, and disjoint countable unions follow by summing conditional-expectation versions for the pieces and testing the increasing partial sums over events in ; ordinary monotone convergence gives a version for the union. Dynkin's theorem [F4] gives the identity for every response event. Simple approximation and monotone convergence extend it to all bounded nonnegative response-measurable functions. Decompose bounded real functions into positive and negative parts to obtain all bounded functions on both sides, hence the claimed independence by [F3]. This cylinder argument applies to any cardinality of the intervention-value set, with no common null set chosen across that set. The fixed-value conclusion is a restriction to one response coordinate vector.
Backdoor adjustment identifies an interventional law
Statement
Assume AC and a finite Markovian SCM on a finite DAG . Let and be distinct observed vertices, with a countable-valued treatment and an observed standard-Borel outcome. Let be an observed finite vector of standard-Borel vertices whose vertex set is disjoint from and contains no descendant of . Fix an atom with . Suppose (i) d-separates and in and (ii) a regular conditional propensity is strictly positive -almost surely. Then for every Borel set in the state space of , The right side depends only on the observed law. Thus the law of is an identifiable estimand on any statistical model consisting of such SCMs with the same observed variables. If is real and is integrable, applying the identity to bounded truncations and taking limits gives For a continuous treatment, the corresponding regular conditional formula is identified only for -almost every ; this theorem makes no pointwise claim at a null treatment value.
Facts & Assumptions
Given: The SCM, observed variables, atom , backdoor separation, and positivity stated above.
The graph criterion implies in the Markovian SCM. The backdoor criterion implies conditional exchangeability
Under AC, standard-Borel variables have regular conditional laws and joint laws disintegrate in either declared coordinate direction. Existence of regular conditional distributions for standard borel targets, Disintegration of a joint law on standard borel spaces
On the structural response agrees with the factual outcome: . Recursive structural causal models on finite DAGs
An estimand is identifiable when it is constant over parameter values with the same observational law. Parametric statistical models, Observational equivalence, Estimands on a statistical model, Identifiability of an estimand, Identifiability is constancy on observational classes
Proof
Given: The hypotheses in the statement.
By [F1], and are conditionally independent given . By [F2] take regular conditional laws of given and given . The conditional-independence identity implies that, for -almost every , the latter law equals the former law at . Since is an atom with for -almost every , the measure is equivalent to : its density with respect to is , which is positive and integrates to one. Hence the conditional-law equality at holds for -almost every .
On the event , the factual structural recursion and the recursion with the equation replaced by agree at . Induction down the fixed topological order shows that they agree at every descendant, in particular . Therefore the conditional law of given equals that of given for -almost every . Combining with step 1.1 identifies the conditional law of given with the observed conditional law in the formula.
Disintegrating the joint law of by [F2] gives . Substitute the equality from step 2.1 to obtain the displayed formula. If two SCM parameter values induce the same observed law, the integrand kernel and agree outside their common null sets; positivity makes those sets null for the target integral. Hence the right side, and so the estimand, is constant on each observational-equivalence class by [F4]. The real-valued expectation formula follows by applying the distribution identity to bounded truncations of and using integrability to pass to the limit.
Counterfactual identities under the front-door conditions
Statement
Assume AC and a finite Markovian recursive SCM on a full DAG with pairwise distinct observed vertices and any number of latent vertices. Suppose: (i) every directed path from to contains ; (ii) and are d-separated by the empty set in ; and (iii) d-separates and in . For each supplied value , let be the response under . Define where ancestry includes the vertex itself and is the finite vector of exogenous coordinates . Then is measurable with respect to , each response is measurable with respect to , and The recursive responses also satisfy almost surely. The conditional independence is for the factual law; it supplies a genuine conditional product law for the exogenous coordinates used by the outcome response.
Facts & Assumptions
Given: The Markovian recursive SCM, its finite full DAG, and the three graph conditions in the statement.
Under intervention, recursion makes each response a measurable function of the exogenous coordinates at its nonintervened ancestors. The full law factors over a DAG after independent exogenous coordinates are added as roots. Recursive structural causal models on finite DAGs, A Markovian recursive SCM has a topological kernel factorization
D-separation in a finite DAG-kernel factorization implies conditional independence. DAG factorization implies the global Markov property
Disjoint subfamilies of a finite mutually independent exogenous family are independent. Independent random elements, Independent random elements have product joint law
Conditional independence has the bounded-function factorization meaning under the stated AC assumption. Conditional independence given a sigma-algebra, The Axiom of Choice
Proof
Given: The hypotheses in the statement.
Let , including . By recursive substitution, is measurable with respect to ; under , the equation at is replaced, so is measurable with respect to . Under , the equation at is replaced, so is measurable with respect to . These claims follow by induction in the finite topological order: an endogenous value depends only on the exogenous coordinates at vertices with directed paths to it in the relevant mutilated graph.
Suppose . Since , there are directed paths in and in ; the latter avoids . Take the last common vertex of these paths in a topological ordering. Their suffixes are disjoint, so they form a simple fork path with no internal collider. It is retained in , because the path uses no arrow out of its endpoint , and is active given the empty set. This contradicts (ii), so .
Suppose . There are directed paths in and in . The first path avoids . The second avoids ; it also avoids , since otherwise its segment would be a directed -to- path avoiding , contrary to (i). Take the last common vertex of the paths. Their suffixes form a simple fork path with no internal collider and no internal . It lies in and is active given , contradicting (iii). Thus .
Fix . There is a directed path from to in . It avoids by definition and avoids , because an occurrence of would leave a directed -to- suffix avoiding , contrary to (i). Thus is retained in . If an active path from to given existed there, choose the last vertex of that also lies on when is traversed from to . Keep the prefix of from to and append the directed suffix of from to . The suffix after is disjoint from the prefix by the choice of , so this is a path. Its old internal vertices remain active; and the outgoing directed edge makes it a noncollider; all new internal vertices are noncolliders outside . This would be an active path from to given , contradicting (iii). Hence d-separates and in . In the expanded graph each added root has only one skeleton neighbor, its own equation vertex, so a simple path cannot contain a root internally. An active path ending at would therefore have penultimate vertex ; deleting its last edge leaves an active path from to (or ). The latter case is excluded by , and the former was just excluded. Adding roots does not create new directed descendants of endogenous vertices, so the remaining collider-activity tests are unchanged. Thus also d-separates and the whole root set in the expanded graph with arrows out of deleted.
By [F3], the disjoint exogenous vectors and are independent. Step 1.1 makes and factual measurable functions of these respective vectors, so .
The finite vectors and are independent by [F3]. By step 1.1, and the response family are measurable functions of these disjoint vectors; in particular .
Adjoin all exogenous coordinates as independent root vertices. In the factual law, no strict descendant of is an ancestor of : it cannot be an ancestor of an exogenous root, and if it were an ancestor of , the directed path from to would remain in and contradict (ii). Reverse-topological integration therefore marginalizes all other vertices and leaves the joint law of factored on its ancestral subgraph, which has no outgoing edge from . This is a subgraph of the expanded mutilated graph in step 1.4, so the separation there still holds. The global Markov implication [F2], interpreted by the conditional-independence definition [F4], gives .
In there is no directed path from to , since every directed -to- path in contains and arrows into were deleted. With fixed, changing the equation at therefore cannot change by recursive substitution: any directed route by which could affect would have to reach the fixed node . Under , the mediator equals . Replacing the mediator equation by that same realized value leaves every other equation unchanged; the no-directed-path argument shows that leaving factual has no further effect on . Thus .
Front-door adjustment identifies an interventional mean
Statement
Assume AC and a finite Markovian SCM with pairwise distinct observed vertices , where is a countable-valued treatment, a standard-Borel mediator, and a real outcome. Fix an atom with . Suppose in the full DAG: (i) lies on every directed path from to ; (ii) and are d-separated by the empty set in ; and (iii) d-separates and in . Write and, for every positive-probability treatment atom , write . Assume the nested-law support condition and absolute integrability of the nested conditional means: Then The right side is determined by the observed law, so the interventional mean is identifiable on any statistical model of SCMs satisfying these assumptions. For a discrete mediator, the support condition says that every mediator value having positive probability under also has positive probability under every positive-probability treatment atom. These are sufficient conditions only. For non-atomic treatment values, regular conditional formulas are determined only -almost everywhere; this item makes no pointwise claim at a null treatment value.
Facts & Assumptions
Given: The SCM, three graph conditions, target atom, nested-law support, and absolute-integrability conditions in the statement.
The front-door graph conditions give , , , and , where is the finite set of exogenous coordinates defined in the helper. Counterfactual identities under the front-door conditions
Standard-Borel variables have regular conditional laws; a disintegration is unique almost everywhere with respect to its conditioning law. Regular conditional distribution, Existence of regular conditional distributions for standard borel targets, Disintegration of a joint law on standard borel spaces, Conditional expectation as a measurable function of the conditioning variable
Integration of a jointly measurable function against a probability kernel is measurable, and Fubini applies on the resulting finite product probability spaces. Measure kernel and probability kernel, Measurability of integration against a kernel, Fubini's theorem for L^1 functions on a sigma-finite product
Conditional expectation has the tower property; increasing nonnegative approximations and monotone convergence justify the integrable limit operations. Conditional expectation given a sigma algebra, Tower property of conditional expectation, Every nonnegative measurable function is the increasing limit of simple measurable functions, Monotone convergence for the integral, The Axiom of Choice
Identifiability means constancy over parameter values inducing the same observed law. Parametric statistical models, Observational equivalence, Estimands on a statistical model, Identifiability of an estimand, Identifiability is constancy on observational classes
Proof
Given: The hypotheses in the statement.
Let be as in [F1], let , and let be the law of . Recursion under gives a jointly measurable function with . Under the factual equations, the same recursion gives , because enters only the equation for and all other exogenous coordinates that can affect after fixing lie in . For each supported atom , let . By [F1], conditional independence gives Thus, for every Borel set , the measurable function satisfies, for each Borel mediator set , It is therefore a regular conditional law of given ; uniqueness in [F2] identifies it with the observed conditional kernel -almost everywhere. Applying this identity to bounded truncations and then using [F4] gives for -almost every .
For each positive-probability atom , the support assumption transfers the full-measure identity from step 1.1 to a -full set. The treatment support is countable, so the intersection of these sets is still -full. The integrability hypothesis and the nonnegative identity in step 1.1 imply Since is countable-valued, the law of is the mixture . Hence and the conditional mean kernel has the observed-law representation for -almost every .
By [F1], and is independent of . The integrability from step 2.1 permits Fubini [F3], so Also [F1] gives , and consistency on gives . Substituting step 2.1 proves the displayed front-door formula.
The right side of the formula uses only the observed law of . Conditional-mean versions agree -almost everywhere by step 2.1 and the domination assumption. Therefore any two SCM parameter values with the same observed law give the same target mean, which is identifiability by [F5].
5 · Examples, counterexamples and false statements
None yet.
Sources
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- Miguel A. Hernán and James M. Robins, Causal Inference: What If, Fine Point 6.1, pp. 78–79
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- Terence Tao, An Introduction to Measure Theory, Proposition 1.7.11
- Judea Pearl, Causal Diagrams for Empirical Research, §2-2, pp. 672–674
- Miguel A. Hernán and James M. Robins, Causal Inference: What If, Technical Points 6.1–6.3, pp. 72–74
- Judea Pearl, Causal Diagrams for Empirical Research, §2-1, p. 672
- Miguel A. Hernán and James M. Robins, Causal Inference: What If, Fine Point 6.2, pp. 79–80
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- Miguel A. Hernán and James M. Robins, Causal Inference: What If, §§7.2–7.3, pp. 87–89
- Judea Pearl, Causal Diagrams for Empirical Research, §3-2, pp. 675–676
- Miguel A. Hernán and James M. Robins, Causal Inference: What If, Technical Point 7.4, p. 101