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A Markovian recursive SCM has a topological kernel factorization

Statement

Let a finite Markovian recursive SCM be as in Recursive structural causal models on finite DAGs, with topological order v1,…,vn. For each v, let νv be the law of Uv and define Kv(xpa⁡(v),B):=νv{u:fv(xpa⁡(v),u)∈B},B∈Sv. Then Kv is a probability kernel from the parent-coordinate product to (Sv,Sv). If n=0, the full-joint law (and the only possible interventional law) is the point mass on the empty-product singleton. For n≥1, the full-joint law is the iterated topological composition μ(dxv1,…,dxvn):=Kv1(dxv1)∏r=2nKvr(xpa⁡(vr),dxvr). For n≥1 and an intervention do(XI=a), the same formula holds with the factor Kv replaced by the point mass δav for each v∈I; all other factors are unchanged. Marginalizing latent coordinates means taking the pushforward to ∏v∈OSv and does not in general produce a factorization on the observed-only induced graph.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The Markovian recursive SCM and its finite topological ordering.

[F1]

Independent finite families with at least one member have the finite product joint law. Independent random elements have product joint law

[F2]

Integration of a nonnegative product-measurable function against a probability kernel is measurable. Measurability of integration against a kernel

[F3]

Composition of specified probability kernels is a probability kernel and finite composition is associative. Composition of probability kernels, Kernel composition is well defined and associative

[F4]

Fubini's theorem permits iterated integration for integrable functions on finite product probability spaces. Fubini's theorem for L^1 functions on a sigma-finite product

[F5]

Finite products of probability kernels with a common source are probability kernels. Finite products of probability kernels are probability kernels

[F6]

Probability measures agreeing on a generating pi-system with a finite common exhaustion agree everywhere. Measures agreeing on a generating pi-system are equal under an increasing finite-measure exhaustion from that pi-system

[F7]

The finite products use the recursive product sigma-algebras and their measurable coordinate projections. The product sigma-algebra and its finite iterates

Proof

technique · construct each structural kernel and identify successive conditional laws by product integration

Given: The hypotheses in the statement.

1.1givenF2

For fixed parent values xpa⁡(v), the map u↦fv(xpa⁡(v),u) is measurable, so its pushforward of νv is a probability measure. For each measurable B⊆Sv, Kv(x,B) is the integral of the jointly measurable indicator 1B(fv(x,u)) against the constant probability kernel x↦νv; [F2] makes this evaluation measurable in x. Hence Kv is a probability kernel, including when the parent set is empty.

1.2F1F4F7algebra

Suppose n≥1. By [F1], the joint law of the exogenous vector is ⨂j=1nνvj. For 1≤r≤n, let X<r=(Xv1,…,Xvr−1), with X<1 the constant empty tuple. Fix a bounded measurable function g of X<r and a measurable set B⊆Svr. The recursive construction makes the earlier coordinates functions only of Uv1,…,Uvr−1. The integrand g(X<r)1{Xvr∈B} does not depend on later exogenous coordinates, whose probability factors integrate to one. The finite product law of the first r exogenous coordinates and Fubini on (∏j<rEvj)×Evr therefore permit integration first in uvr while fixing the earlier coordinates, giving E[g(X<r)1{Xvr∈B}]=E[g(X<r)Kvr(Xpa⁡(vr),B)]. For r=1, the earlier product is the singleton and g is constant; the parent tuple is empty. For every r, all parent coordinates occur in X<r by the topological order. Thus the displayed identity gives the conditional-law testing identity needed below.

2.1step 1.1step 1.2F3F5F6F7construct

If n=0, the endogenous vector is the empty tuple and its law is the point mass on the empty-product singleton, as stated. Suppose n≥1. The law μ1 of Xv1 is Kv1, since its parent tuple is empty and step 1.2 applies. Inductively, suppose μr−1 is the law of X<r, for some 2≤r≤n. Let πr be the coordinate projection from the preceding product to the parent-coordinate product; it is measurable because preimages of measurable rectangles are coordinate cylinders in the recursive finite product sigma-algebra [F7]. Pull back Kvr to the probability kernel Kˉr(x,B)=Kvr(πr(x),B) on that same source. The identity Dirac kernel Dr(x,C)=1C(x) and Kˉr have common source. By [F5] their product is a probability kernel K~r into the preceding product times Svr, with rectangle values K~r(x,C×B)=1C(x)Kvr(πr(x),B). Compose it with μr−1, regarded as a probability kernel from a singleton, using [F3]; this gives a probability measure μr satisfying μr(C×B)=∫CKvr(πr(x),B) μr−1(dx). By step 1.2, the actual law of (X<r,Xvr) has these same values on every measurable rectangle. Both are probability measures, and the rectangles form a generating pi-system whose whole-space member gives a finite common exhaustion, so [F6] makes the measures equal. Induction gives the displayed iterated topological composition as the full-joint law.

3.1givenstep 1.2step 2.1F3F5construct∎

Under do(XI=a) with n≥1, the coordinates in I are constants and their conditional kernels are δav; every other equation still uses the same independent exogenous coordinate and the same parent values, with an intervened parent replaced by its fixed constant. At an intervened vertex the conditional-law identity is immediate because the coordinate is the fixed value av; at every other vertex the Fubini calculation of step 1.2 applies with the intervened parent coordinates fixed at their assigned values. Repeating the extension construction of step 2.1 with these kernels proves the interventional product. For n=0 the only intervention is empty and the law remains the point mass already described. The observed law is the pushforward under coordinate projection; integrating out the latent coordinates is marginalization and creates no asserted observed-only DAG factorization.

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