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A Markovian recursive SCM has a topological kernel factorization
Statement
Let a finite Markovian recursive SCM be as in Recursive structural causal models on finite DAGs, with topological order . For each , let be the law of and define Then is a probability kernel from the parent-coordinate product to . If , the full-joint law (and the only possible interventional law) is the point mass on the empty-product singleton. For , the full-joint law is the iterated topological composition For and an intervention , the same formula holds with the factor replaced by the point mass for each ; all other factors are unchanged. Marginalizing latent coordinates means taking the pushforward to and does not in general produce a factorization on the observed-only induced graph.
Facts & Assumptions
Given: The Markovian recursive SCM and its finite topological ordering.
Independent finite families with at least one member have the finite product joint law. Independent random elements have product joint law
Integration of a nonnegative product-measurable function against a probability kernel is measurable. Measurability of integration against a kernel
Composition of specified probability kernels is a probability kernel and finite composition is associative. Composition of probability kernels, Kernel composition is well defined and associative
Fubini's theorem permits iterated integration for integrable functions on finite product probability spaces. Fubini's theorem for L^1 functions on a sigma-finite product
Finite products of probability kernels with a common source are probability kernels. Finite products of probability kernels are probability kernels
Probability measures agreeing on a generating pi-system with a finite common exhaustion agree everywhere. Measures agreeing on a generating pi-system are equal under an increasing finite-measure exhaustion from that pi-system
The finite products use the recursive product sigma-algebras and their measurable coordinate projections. The product sigma-algebra and its finite iterates
Proof
Given: The hypotheses in the statement.
For fixed parent values , the map is measurable, so its pushforward of is a probability measure. For each measurable , is the integral of the jointly measurable indicator against the constant probability kernel ; [F2] makes this evaluation measurable in . Hence is a probability kernel, including when the parent set is empty.
Suppose . By [F1], the joint law of the exogenous vector is . For , let , with the constant empty tuple. Fix a bounded measurable function of and a measurable set . The recursive construction makes the earlier coordinates functions only of . The integrand does not depend on later exogenous coordinates, whose probability factors integrate to one. The finite product law of the first exogenous coordinates and Fubini on therefore permit integration first in while fixing the earlier coordinates, giving For , the earlier product is the singleton and is constant; the parent tuple is empty. For every , all parent coordinates occur in by the topological order. Thus the displayed identity gives the conditional-law testing identity needed below.
If , the endogenous vector is the empty tuple and its law is the point mass on the empty-product singleton, as stated. Suppose . The law of is , since its parent tuple is empty and step 1.2 applies. Inductively, suppose is the law of , for some . Let be the coordinate projection from the preceding product to the parent-coordinate product; it is measurable because preimages of measurable rectangles are coordinate cylinders in the recursive finite product sigma-algebra [F7]. Pull back to the probability kernel on that same source. The identity Dirac kernel and have common source. By [F5] their product is a probability kernel into the preceding product times , with rectangle values . Compose it with , regarded as a probability kernel from a singleton, using [F3]; this gives a probability measure satisfying By step 1.2, the actual law of has these same values on every measurable rectangle. Both are probability measures, and the rectangles form a generating pi-system whose whole-space member gives a finite common exhaustion, so [F6] makes the measures equal. Induction gives the displayed iterated topological composition as the full-joint law.
Under with , the coordinates in are constants and their conditional kernels are ; every other equation still uses the same independent exogenous coordinate and the same parent values, with an intervened parent replaced by its fixed constant. At an intervened vertex the conditional-law identity is immediate because the coordinate is the fixed value ; at every other vertex the Fubini calculation of step 1.2 applies with the intervened parent coordinates fixed at their assigned values. Repeating the extension construction of step 2.1 with these kernels proves the interventional product. For the only intervention is empty and the law remains the point mass already described. The observed law is the pushforward under coordinate projection; integrating out the latent coordinates is marginalization and creates no asserted observed-only DAG factorization.
Depends on
- Recursive structural causal models on finite DAGs
- Finite products of probability kernels are probability kernels
- Measure kernel and probability kernel
- The product sigma-algebra and its finite iterates
- Measurability of integration against a kernel
- Composition of probability kernels
- Kernel composition is well defined and associative
- Independent random elements have product joint law
- Fubini's theorem for L^1 functions on a sigma-finite product
- Measures agreeing on a generating pi-system are equal under an increasing finite-measure exhaustion from that pi-system
Used by
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Sources
- Judea Pearl, Causal Diagrams for Empirical Research, §2-2, pp. 672–674 (standard reference, not scraped)
- Miguel A. Hernán and James M. Robins, Causal Inference: What If, Technical Points 6.1–6.3, pp. 72–74 (standard reference, not scraped)