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Domination and Likelihood Ratios
1 · Prerequisites
- Absolute and Conditional Convergence; Rearrangement; Products
- Binary Operations, Monoids, Groups and Subgroups
- Construction of the Natural Numbers
- Construction of the Real Numbers via Cauchy Sequences
- Construction of the Real Numbers via Dedekind Cuts
- Cosets, Index and Lagrange's Theorem
- Countability and Uncountability
- Divisibility, Euclidean Domains, Principal Ideal Domains and Unique Factorisation
- Finite Counting, Factorials and Binomial Coefficients
- Foundations of the Real Numbers for Analysis
- Ideals, Quotient Rings and the Isomorphism Theorems for Rings
- limsup, liminf, and Subsequential Limits
- Measurable Functions and Simple Approximation
- Measures and Their Basic Properties
- Monotone Sequences, Bolzano-Weierstrass, and Cauchy Completeness
- Normal Subgroups and Quotient Groups
- Order, Zorn's Lemma, and the Axiom of Choice
- Polynomial Rings, the Division Algorithm and Roots
- Probability Spaces Random Variables and Expectation
- Relations, Functions, and Quotients
- Rings, Subrings, Integral Domains and Fields
- Roots, Rational Powers, and Classical Inequalities
- Sequences and Limits
- Series: Convergence and the Nonnegative Tests
- Sigma Algebras and Borel Sets
- Signed and Complex Measures Hahn and Jordan
- Simple Field Extensions and the Construction of the Complex Numbers
- Statistical Experiments, Models and Identifiability
- Suprema and Infima
- The Lebesgue Integral and the Convergence Theorems
- The Radon Nikodym Theorem and Lebesgue Decomposition
- The ZFC Axioms and the Basic Set Constructions
- Topological Spaces and Continuity
- Topology of ℝ
2 · Summary
Domination fixes one sigma-finite positive reference measure for every law in an experiment. Under AC, its Radon–Nikodym classes admit selected nonnegative representatives, but those versions are only determined almost everywhere and need not be measurable in the parameter. A likelihood holds the observed data fixed; it is not a probability distribution on the parameter labels.
For two probability laws, the likelihood-ratio class is the derivative of the absolutely continuous part relative to the denominator law. A singular part must be retained separately. Under absolute continuity, integration against the likelihood ratio changes measure. Equivalent dominating measures multiply every parameter density by the same positive data-only factor, with each fixed parameter pair's equality holding almost everywhere.
3 · Logical flowchart
4 · Definitions, theorems and proofs
Lebesgue components of a positive finite measure are positive
Statement
Let be a finite positive measure and a positive measure on the same measurable space. If with and , then and are positive measures.
Facts & Assumptions
Given: A finite positive measure , a positive measure , and a decomposition with and .
Mutual singularity for signed or complex measures: singularity supplies a measurable carrier whose measurable subsets are -null, while vanishes on every measurable subset of .
Absolute continuity of a signed or complex measure with respect to a positive measure: makes vanish on every measurable -null set.
Measures on sigma-algebras and Finite, sigma-finite, and semifinite measures: a measure has nonnegative values on measurable sets, and a finite measure has finite values on all of them.
Proof
Choose the singular carrier from [F1]. For any measurable , the singular part vanishes on , so the decomposition gives . Also by [F1] and [F2]. Additivity therefore gives . All displayed component values are finite because the sum is the finite value and the other component is zero on the set being evaluated.
On , [F2] gives , so the decomposition yields . The singular part vanishes on by [F1]; hence . Since was arbitrary, both components are positive measures.
A sigma-finite positive measure has a nonnegative Radon–Nikodym density version
Statement
Assume AC. If and are sigma-finite positive measures on the same measurable space and , then the Radon–Nikodym class has a finite-valued nonnegative measurable representative. Every finite-valued representative of that class is nonnegative -almost everywhere.
Facts & Assumptions
Given: AC, sigma-finite positive measures on , and .
The Axiom of Choice: AC states that every family of nonempty sets has a choice function.
Finite, sigma-finite, and semifinite measures: sigma-finiteness gives a countable measurable cover by sets of finite measure.
The total variation |nu|(E) from countable measurable partitions: total variation is the supremum of sums of absolute measure values over measurable partitions. For a positive measure, countable additivity makes every such sum equal to the measure of the partitioned set.
A sigma-finite signed measure that is absolutely continuous with respect to a sigma-finite positive measure has a unique almost-everywhere density and The Radon-Nikodym derivative as an almost-everywhere equivalence class: under AC, absolute continuity and a common finite exhaustion give a nonempty almost-everywhere class of real-valued densities satisfying the setwise integral formula; its representatives are locally integrable on the exhaustion sets.
Absolute continuity of a signed or complex measure with respect to a positive measure: means every -null measurable set is -null.
Extended-real-valued measurable functions and Sigma-algebras: if is measurable, is measurable as the complement of , and countable unions of measurable sets are measurable.
Integrable real and complex functions, and their integrals and Monotonicity and nonnegative homogeneity of the nonnegative integral: on a finite-integral piece, a real integrable function has a defined signed integral; the nonnegative integral is monotone.
Closure properties of measurable functions used by the integral: scalar multiples of measurable real functions and their positive parts, including , are measurable.
Proof
Choose increasing countable finite-measure covers for and for , using [F1]. Set . Then and both and are finite, since each finite union is contained in finite unions of sets from the corresponding cover. By [F2], . Thus [F3] applies. Fix any finite-valued representative of the nonempty class; it satisfies for every measurable and .
For , let , which is measurable by [F5]. On , ; because is integrable on , [F6] and [F7] give . If , the representation in step 1.1 would give , contradicting positivity of . Hence every is -null.
The countable union is measurable and -null by [F5]. Since the sets cover , .
Define . By [F7], is measurable; it is nonnegative, equals off , and is zero on . For every measurable , absolute continuity gives by [F4], while step 1.1 gives . Thus represents the Radon–Nikodym class. The argument also shows that any finite-valued representative is nonnegative outside a null set.
Dominated statistical experiments
Definition
Let be a statistical experiment (Statistical experiments). It is dominated by a supplied positive measure on when is sigma-finite (Finite, sigma-finite, and semifinite measures) and for every (Absolute continuity of a signed or complex measure with respect to a positive measure). The dominating measure is part of the specified setup. This condition adds no measurable structure on and no measurability of .
Likelihood ratio as a Radon–Nikodym derivative
Definition
Let and be probability measures on the same measurable space. Assume AC. Their Lebesgue decomposition relative to is the unique decomposition with and (Every sigma-finite signed measure admits a Lebesgue decomposition relative to a sigma-finite positive measure, The Lebesgue decomposition of a sigma-finite signed measure is unique). Both components are positive by Lebesgue components of a positive finite measure are positive, and is finite because their sum has mass one. Define the likelihood-ratio density of against to be the -almost-everywhere class
of The Radon-Nikodym derivative as an almost-everywhere equivalence class. Under AC this class has a nonnegative measurable representative by A sigma-finite positive measure has a nonnegative Radon–Nikodym density version.
This is a full density of with respect to only in the absolutely continuous case . If that condition fails, the singular component remains separate. A displayed representative is not a canonical pointwise function: its values are determined only -almost everywhere.
Likelihood densities
Definition
Let be dominated by the fixed sigma-finite positive measure . For each , the Radon–Nikodym theorem gives the almost-everywhere class ; a sigma-finite exhaustion for is also finite for the probability measure . Under AC, select simultaneously a finite-valued measurable nonnegative representative from each class. The nonnegative version exists by A sigma-finite positive measure has a nonnegative Radon–Nikodym density version.
For fixed observed , the function is the likelihood at . This is a function on the parameter labels, not a probability distribution on . No sigma-algebra on or measurability of is implied. Each density is determined only -almost everywhere; there is no canonical pointwise version and, for arbitrary uncountable , no common exceptional null set is asserted.
Likelihood-ratio change of measure
Statement
Assume AC and let be probability measures on one measurable space. Let be a nonnegative measurable representative of the likelihood-ratio class for versus . If , then
for every nonnegative measurable , and also for every real-valued -integrable measurable . Here means . Without , this identity need not hold because the singular component may be nonzero.
Facts & Assumptions
Given: AC; probability measures on ; a nonnegative representative of their likelihood-ratio class; and, for the identity, the additional hypothesis .
The Axiom of Choice: AC states that every family of nonempty sets has a choice function.
Likelihood ratio as a Radon–Nikodym derivative: the likelihood-ratio class is , where is its Lebesgue decomposition.
The Lebesgue decomposition of a sigma-finite signed measure is unique: two decompositions into an absolutely continuous part and a singular part have identical components.
Lebesgue components of a positive finite measure are positive and The total variation |nu|(E) from countable measurable partitions: for a positive finite , both Lebesgue components are positive; hence is finite and its total variation equals itself.
A sigma-finite signed measure that is absolutely continuous with respect to a sigma-finite positive measure has a unique almost-everywhere density and A sigma-finite positive measure has a nonnegative Radon–Nikodym density version: under AC, a finite positive measure absolutely continuous with respect to the probability has a nonnegative density representative satisfying the setwise integral formula, and every representative of that class agrees with it -almost everywhere.
The measure with density relative to and Measures on sigma-algebras: is the measure when is nonnegative measurable, so its setwise values are additive over measurable partitions.
Integrating against a density agrees with integrating the product: for nonnegative measurable , .
Integrable real and complex functions, and their integrals, The positive and negative parts of a function, Closure properties of measurable functions used by the integral, and The Lebesgue integral is linear on : a real integrable function has integrable measurable positive and negative parts, and the integral is linear on .
A nonnegative integral over a null set vanishes: the integral of a nonnegative measurable function over a -null set is zero.
Proof
The decomposition has absolutely continuous part and singular part , because the hypothesis gives . Comparing it with the decomposition in [F1], uniqueness [F2] gives and .
By [F3], is positive and finite, and is a finite positive measure. Choose a nonnegative representative supplied by [F4], so for every . By step 1.1, . The representative in the statement belongs to this same Radon–Nikodym class, so [F4] gives a measurable -null set outside which . By [F5], both and are measures; their values on are zero by [F8], and their values on agree because the densities agree there. Measure additivity therefore gives for every measurable . Thus the density measure in [F5] equals .
For nonnegative measurable , equality of these measures and [F6] give . This is the asserted expectation identity in the nonnegative case.
Now let be real-valued and integrable under . By [F7], and are measurable and integrable. Applying step 3.1 to each gives ; applying it to also shows . Thus , and linearity from [F7] yields .
Equivalent dominating measures give equivalent likelihood ratios
Statement
Assume AC. Let and be mutually absolutely continuous sigma-finite positive measures on one measurable space, and let be dominated by both. Choose nonnegative density representatives , , and . Then -almost everywhere and, for each fixed , Thus, for each fixed pair , the ratios and agree -almost everywhere wherever the denominator is positive. The factor depends only on the two dominating measures. For an arbitrary uncountable , no single exceptional null set valid for every pair is asserted; the density versions are not pointwise canonical, and no ratio value is specified at a zero denominator.
Facts & Assumptions
Given: AC; mutually absolutely continuous sigma-finite positive measures ; and an experiment whose probability laws satisfy and for every .
Finite, sigma-finite, and semifinite measures: sigma-finiteness gives countable covers by measurable sets finite under the corresponding measure.
The Axiom of Choice: AC says every family of nonempty sets has a choice function, permitting simultaneous selection of density representatives.
A sigma-finite signed measure that is absolutely continuous with respect to a sigma-finite positive measure has a unique almost-everywhere density and The Radon-Nikodym derivative as an almost-everywhere equivalence class: under AC and a common finite exhaustion, each derivative is a finite-valued measurable representative class satisfying the setwise integral formula.
A sigma-finite positive measure has a nonnegative Radon–Nikodym density version: for sigma-finite positive measures with absolute continuity, the RN class has a finite-valued nonnegative representative.
Radon-Nikodym derivatives satisfy the chain rule along nu << mu << lambda: if are sigma-finite positive measures and has a common finite exhaustion with them, with , then -almost everywhere.
Absolute continuity of a signed or complex measure with respect to a positive measure: means every -null measurable set is -null.
Likelihood densities: for observed , the likelihood under a chosen dominating measure is , with each density specified only up to its own null set.
The total variation |nu|(E) from countable measurable partitions and Probability measures and probability spaces: on a measurable set, total variation of a positive measure equals its measure; in particular .
Proof
Choose increasing finite-measure covers for and for by [F1], and set . Then , , and . Since is a probability measure, [F8] gives . This is a common finite exhaustion for , so the hypotheses in [F5] hold for every , with .
By [A1], [F3], and [F4], choose nonnegative representatives and for the stated classes. The measurable set satisfies by [F3]; then by [F6]. Hence -almost everywhere.
Fix . Applying [F5] on the common exhaustion from step 1.1 gives -almost everywhere. For a fixed pair , remove the union of their two exceptional null sets and the null set from step 1.2. On the remaining set, both density identities hold and , so division by the positive common factor gives wherever the denominators are positive. The exceptional set may depend on the pair, which proves the stated scope.
5 · Examples, counterexamples and false statements
None yet.
Sources
- Richard F. Bass, Real Analysis for Graduate Students, Theorem 13.5 and proof, §13.3 (book pagination)
- John K. Hunter, Measure Theory, Theorem 6.27 and proof, §6.8 (notes pp. 75–77)
- Richard F. Bass, Real Analysis for Graduate Students, Theorem 13.4 and proof, §13.2 (book pp. 100–103)
- Ryan Martin, Lecture Notes on Advanced Statistical Theory, §2.2, PDF pp. 30–33
- Ryan Martin, Lecture Notes on Advanced Statistical Theory, §§2.2 and 3.2, PDF pp. 30–33 and 54–55
- Richard F. Bass, Real Analysis for Graduate Students, §13.3 (book pagination)
- Joshua M. Tebbs, STAT 512 Mathematical Statistics Lecture Notes, §9.3, PDF pp. 118–123
- Charles J. Geyer, Stat 5421 Lecture Notes: Exponential Families, §3, PDF pp. 3–5
- Ryan Martin, Lecture Notes on Advanced Statistical Theory, §3.2, PDF pp. 54–55