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Likelihood-ratio change of measure

Statement

Assume AC and let P0,P1 be probability measures on one measurable space. Let r be a nonnegative measurable representative of the likelihood-ratio class for P1 versus P0. If P1≪P0, then

EP0[gr]=EP1[g]

for every nonnegative measurable g, and also for every real-valued P1-integrable measurable g. Here EPi[h] means ∫h dPi. Without P1≪P0, this identity need not hold because the singular component may be nonzero.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: AC; probability measures P0,P1 on (X,A); a nonnegative representative r of their likelihood-ratio class; and, for the identity, the additional hypothesis P1≪P0.

[A1]

The Axiom of Choice: AC states that every family of nonempty sets has a choice function.

[F1]

Likelihood ratio as a Radon–Nikodym derivative: the likelihood-ratio class is dP1,ac/dP0, where P1=P1,ac+P1,s is its Lebesgue decomposition.

[F2]

The Lebesgue decomposition of a sigma-finite signed measure is unique: two decompositions into an absolutely continuous part and a singular part have identical components.

[F3]

Lebesgue components of a positive finite measure are positive and The total variation |nu|(E) from countable measurable partitions: for a positive finite P1, both Lebesgue components are positive; hence P1,ac is finite and its total variation equals itself.

[F4]

A sigma-finite signed measure that is absolutely continuous with respect to a sigma-finite positive measure has a unique almost-everywhere density and A sigma-finite positive measure has a nonnegative Radon–Nikodym density version: under AC, a finite positive measure absolutely continuous with respect to the probability P0 has a nonnegative density representative satisfying the setwise integral formula, and every representative of that class agrees with it P0-almost everywhere.

[F5]

The measure with density f relative to μ and Measures on sigma-algebras: r dP0 is the measure A↦∫Ar dP0 when r is nonnegative measurable, so its setwise values are additive over measurable partitions.

[F6]

Integrating against a density agrees with integrating the product: for nonnegative measurable g, ∫g d(r dP0)=∫gr dP0.

[F8]

A nonnegative integral over a null set vanishes: the integral of a nonnegative measurable function over a P0-null set is zero.

Proof

technique · direct
1.1A1F1F2givenalgebra

The decomposition P1=P1+0 has absolutely continuous part P1 and singular part 0, because the hypothesis gives P1≪P0. Comparing it with the decomposition in [F1], uniqueness [F2] gives P1,ac=P1 and P1,s=0.

2.1A1F3F4F5F8step 1.1givenchoose

By [F3], P1,ac is positive and finite, and P0 is a finite positive measure. Choose a nonnegative representative r^ supplied by [F4], so P1,ac(A)=∫Ar^ dP0 for every A∈A. By step 1.1, P1,ac=P1. The representative r in the statement belongs to this same Radon–Nikodym class, so [F4] gives a measurable P0-null set N outside which r=r^. By [F5], both r dP0 and r^ dP0 are measures; their values on A∩N are zero by [F8], and their values on A∖N agree because the densities agree there. Measure additivity therefore gives ∫Ar dP0=∫Ar^ dP0=P1(A) for every measurable A. Thus the density measure r dP0 in [F5] equals P1.

3.1F5F6step 2.1

For nonnegative measurable g, equality of these measures and [F6] give ∫g dP1=∫g d(r dP0)=∫gr dP0. This is the asserted expectation identity in the nonnegative case.

4.1F7step 3.1givenalgebra∎

Now let g be real-valued and integrable under P1. By [F7], g+ and g− are measurable and integrable. Applying step 3.1 to each gives ∫g±r dP0=∫g± dP1<∞; applying it to ∣g∣ also shows ∫∣g∣r dP0=∫∣g∣ dP1<∞. Thus gr∈L1(P0), and linearity from [F7] yields ∫gr dP0=∫g+r dP0−∫g−r dP0=∫g dP1.

Depends on

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