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Finite-sample likelihood ratio for iid observations

Statement

Assume AC. Let P0,P1 be probability measures on a common measurable space and let (Xi)i≥1 be random elements of (S,Σ) that are IID under each Pj, with one-coordinate law Qj. Suppose Q1≪Q0, let λ=dQ1/dQ0 be a nonnegative representative, and put Ft=σ(X1,…,Xt). For every t≥1, Lt:=∏i=1tλ(Xi) is a version of d(P1∣Ft)/d(P0∣Ft).

Facts & Assumptions

Given: Assume AC. Let P0,P1 be probability measures on (Ω,F); under each Pj, let (Xi)i≥1 be IID with common law Qj on (S,Σ). Assume Q1≪Q0 and let λ represent dQ1/dQ0.

[A1]

The Axiom of Choice: every family of nonempty sets has a choice function; AC is the hypothesis used by the supplied Radon–Nikodym likelihood-ratio definition.

[F1]

Identical distribution and IID families and Independent random elements: IID means mutual independence of the coordinate random elements and a common one-coordinate law.

[F2]

Independent random elements are characterized by finite rectangle probabilities: for every finite list of distinct coordinates and measurable coordinate sets, the joint rectangle probability is the product of the marginal probabilities.

[F3]

Measurable rectangles in a product of measurable spaces and The product sigma-algebra and its finite iterates: finite products use the sigma-algebra generated by all-coordinate measurable rectangles.

[F4]

For sigma-finite factors, the product measure exists, has the rectangle formula, is sigma-finite, and is unique: products of probability measures exist, have the rectangle product formula, and are unique with that formula.

[F5]

Law or distribution of a random element and The law of a random element is a probability measure: the law of a random element is its pushforward probability measure.

[F6]

Pi-systems and Measures agreeing on a generating pi-system are equal under an increasing finite-measure exhaustion from that pi-system: a generating pi-system with a common finite-measure exhaustion determines two measures.

[F7]

Likelihood ratio as a Radon–Nikodym derivative: under AC, λ is a nonnegative measurable representative of the Radon–Nikodym density class.

[F8]

Likelihood-ratio change of measure: if Q1≪Q0, then ∫gλ dQ0=∫g dQ1 for every nonnegative measurable g.

[F9]

The indefinite integral of a nonnegative measurable function is a measure: B↦∫Bh dμ is a measure for nonnegative measurable h.

[F10]

Tonelli's theorem for nonnegative measurable functions on a sigma-finite product: nonnegative product integrals can be evaluated as iterated integrals.

[F11]

Monotone convergence for the integral: integrals of increasing nonnegative measurable functions converge to the integral of their pointwise limit.

[F12]

Continuous functions on Euclidean spaces are Borel measurable: under countable choice, a continuous map between finite-dimensional Euclidean spaces is Borel measurable; AC implies this choice principle.

[F13]

Composition with a Borel measurable outer map preserves measurability: the composition of measurable maps is measurable.

Proof

1.1F1F2F3F4F5F6F8

By [F8] with g=1, ∫λ dQ0=1, so N={λ=∞} is Q0-null and hence Q1-null. Set λ=0 on N; this preserves its density class and gives a finite nonnegative representative. Now fix t≥1 and j∈{0,1}. The vector Yt=(X1,…,Xt) is measurable into the finite product sigma-algebra because preimages of all-coordinate rectangles are finite intersections of coordinate events, and those rectangles generate that sigma-algebra by [F3]. Its law μj,t is a probability measure by [F5]. On every rectangle R=∏i=1tBi, [F1] and [F2] give μj,t(R)=∏iQj(Bi). Repeated application of [F4] constructs Qj⊗t with those same rectangle masses. The all-coordinate rectangles form a pi-system by [F3] and [F6], generate the product sigma-algebra, and have a finite exhaustion consisting of the whole space, whose mass is one for both measures. Hence [F6] gives μj,t=Qj⊗t.

2.1A1F3F4F6F7F8F9F10F12F13step 1.1

Define Λt(x1,…,xt)=(λ(x1),…,λ(xt)). Preimages of product rectangles are finite intersections of measurable coordinate preimages, so [F3] makes Λt measurable. The finite multiplication map mt:Rt→R, mt(y)=∏i=1tyi, is continuous: the two-coordinate multiplication map is continuous by ∣ab−a′b′∣≤∣a∣∣b−b′∣+∣b′∣∣a−a′∣, and finite products follow by induction. Thus [F12] makes mt Borel and [F13] makes ht=mt∘Λt measurable. By [F9], νt(B):=∫Bht dQ0⊗t is a measure. For each rectangle R=∏iBi, repeated Tonelli integration, justified by induction on the finite number t of factors, gives νt(R)=∏i=1t∫Biλ dQ0=∏i=1tQ1(Bi), where each factor uses [F8]. This is the rectangle formula for Q1⊗t by [F4]. The two measures agree on the generating pi-system and both have total mass one, so [F6] gives νt=Q1⊗t.

3.1F3F5F7F11step 1.1step 2.1∎

If A∈Ft=σ(Yt), then A=Yt−1(B) for some product-measurable B: the family of such preimages is a sigma-algebra and is exactly the sigma-algebra generated by Yt. The definition of law [F5] gives the integral change-of-variables identity first for indicators and nonnegative simple functions; increasing simple approximation and [F11] extend it to ht1B. Thus, using steps 1.1 and 2.1, P1(A)=Q1⊗t(B)=∫Bht dQ0⊗t=∫Aht(Yt) dP0. This is the Radon–Nikodym characterization of Lt=ht(Yt).

Source notes

Wolpert writes the iid likelihood ratio as the product of one-observation density ratios in §1.2, PDF p. 4. Durrett Theorem 2.1.11, printed p. 48, proves the finite iid product-law identity by checking rectangles and using pi-system uniqueness. The density factorization above is proved locally for general one-observation laws with Q1≪Q0.

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