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Finite-sample likelihood ratio for iid observations
Statement
Assume AC. Let be probability measures on a common measurable space and let be random elements of that are IID under each , with one-coordinate law . Suppose , let be a nonnegative representative, and put . For every , is a version of .
Facts & Assumptions
Given: Assume AC. Let be probability measures on ; under each , let be IID with common law on . Assume and let represent .
The Axiom of Choice: every family of nonempty sets has a choice function; AC is the hypothesis used by the supplied Radon–Nikodym likelihood-ratio definition.
Identical distribution and IID families and Independent random elements: IID means mutual independence of the coordinate random elements and a common one-coordinate law.
Independent random elements are characterized by finite rectangle probabilities: for every finite list of distinct coordinates and measurable coordinate sets, the joint rectangle probability is the product of the marginal probabilities.
Measurable rectangles in a product of measurable spaces and The product sigma-algebra and its finite iterates: finite products use the sigma-algebra generated by all-coordinate measurable rectangles.
For sigma-finite factors, the product measure exists, has the rectangle formula, is sigma-finite, and is unique: products of probability measures exist, have the rectangle product formula, and are unique with that formula.
Law or distribution of a random element and The law of a random element is a probability measure: the law of a random element is its pushforward probability measure.
Pi-systems and Measures agreeing on a generating pi-system are equal under an increasing finite-measure exhaustion from that pi-system: a generating pi-system with a common finite-measure exhaustion determines two measures.
Likelihood ratio as a Radon–Nikodym derivative: under AC, is a nonnegative measurable representative of the Radon–Nikodym density class.
Likelihood-ratio change of measure: if , then for every nonnegative measurable .
The indefinite integral of a nonnegative measurable function is a measure: is a measure for nonnegative measurable .
Tonelli's theorem for nonnegative measurable functions on a sigma-finite product: nonnegative product integrals can be evaluated as iterated integrals.
Monotone convergence for the integral: integrals of increasing nonnegative measurable functions converge to the integral of their pointwise limit.
Continuous functions on Euclidean spaces are Borel measurable: under countable choice, a continuous map between finite-dimensional Euclidean spaces is Borel measurable; AC implies this choice principle.
Composition with a Borel measurable outer map preserves measurability: the composition of measurable maps is measurable.
Proof
By [F8] with , , so is -null and hence -null. Set on ; this preserves its density class and gives a finite nonnegative representative. Now fix and . The vector is measurable into the finite product sigma-algebra because preimages of all-coordinate rectangles are finite intersections of coordinate events, and those rectangles generate that sigma-algebra by [F3]. Its law is a probability measure by [F5]. On every rectangle , [F1] and [F2] give . Repeated application of [F4] constructs with those same rectangle masses. The all-coordinate rectangles form a pi-system by [F3] and [F6], generate the product sigma-algebra, and have a finite exhaustion consisting of the whole space, whose mass is one for both measures. Hence [F6] gives .
Define . Preimages of product rectangles are finite intersections of measurable coordinate preimages, so [F3] makes measurable. The finite multiplication map , , is continuous: the two-coordinate multiplication map is continuous by , and finite products follow by induction. Thus [F12] makes Borel and [F13] makes measurable. By [F9], is a measure. For each rectangle , repeated Tonelli integration, justified by induction on the finite number of factors, gives , where each factor uses [F8]. This is the rectangle formula for by [F4]. The two measures agree on the generating pi-system and both have total mass one, so [F6] gives .
If , then for some product-measurable : the family of such preimages is a sigma-algebra and is exactly the sigma-algebra generated by . The definition of law [F5] gives the integral change-of-variables identity first for indicators and nonnegative simple functions; increasing simple approximation and [F11] extend it to . Thus, using steps 1.1 and 2.1, . This is the Radon–Nikodym characterization of .
Source notes
Wolpert writes the iid likelihood ratio as the product of one-observation density ratios in §1.2, PDF p. 4. Durrett Theorem 2.1.11, printed p. 48, proves the finite iid product-law identity by checking rectangles and using pi-system uniqueness. The density factorization above is proved locally for general one-observation laws with .
Depends on
- The Axiom of Choice
- Identical distribution and IID families
- Independent random elements
- Law or distribution of a random element
- Measurable rectangles in a product of measurable spaces
- Pi-systems
- The product sigma-algebra and its finite iterates
- Likelihood ratio as a Radon–Nikodym derivative
- Continuous functions on Euclidean spaces are Borel measurable
- The law of a random element is a probability measure
- Independent random elements are characterized by finite rectangle probabilities
- The indefinite integral of a nonnegative measurable function is a measure
- Likelihood-ratio change of measure
- Measures agreeing on a generating pi-system are equal under an increasing finite-measure exhaustion from that pi-system
- Monotone convergence for the integral
- Composition with a Borel measurable outer map preserves measurability
- For sigma-finite factors, the product measure exists, has the rectangle formula, is sigma-finite, and is unique
- Tonelli's theorem for nonnegative measurable functions on a sigma-finite product
Used by
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Sources
- Robert L. Wolpert, Introduction to Martingales, STA 711 course notes, §1.2, PDF p. 4 (standard reference, not scraped)
- Rick Durrett, Probability: Theory and Examples, 5th ed., §2.1.2, Theorem 2.1.11, printed p. 48 (standard reference, not scraped)