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Domination and Likelihood Ratios — Examples
1 · Prerequisites
- Absolute and Conditional Convergence; Rearrangement; Products
- Binary Operations, Monoids, Groups and Subgroups
- Construction of the Natural Numbers
- Construction of the Real Numbers via Cauchy Sequences
- Construction of the Real Numbers via Dedekind Cuts
- Cosets, Index and Lagrange's Theorem
- Countability and Uncountability
- Divisibility, Euclidean Domains, Principal Ideal Domains and Unique Factorisation
- Domination and Likelihood Ratios
- Finite Counting, Factorials and Binomial Coefficients
- Foundations of the Real Numbers for Analysis
- Ideals, Quotient Rings and the Isomorphism Theorems for Rings
- limsup, liminf, and Subsequential Limits
- Measurable Functions and Simple Approximation
- Measures and Their Basic Properties
- Monotone Sequences, Bolzano-Weierstrass, and Cauchy Completeness
- Normal Subgroups and Quotient Groups
- Order, Zorn's Lemma, and the Axiom of Choice
- Polynomial Rings, the Division Algorithm and Roots
- Probability Spaces Random Variables and Expectation
- Relations, Functions, and Quotients
- Rings, Subrings, Integral Domains and Fields
- Roots, Rational Powers, and Classical Inequalities
- Sequences and Limits
- Series: Convergence and the Nonnegative Tests
- Sigma Algebras and Borel Sets
- Signed and Complex Measures Hahn and Jordan
- Simple Field Extensions and the Construction of the Complex Numbers
- Statistical Experiments, Models and Identifiability
- Suprema and Infima
- The Lebesgue Integral and the Convergence Theorems
- The Radon Nikodym Theorem and Lebesgue Decomposition
- The ZFC Axioms and the Basic Set Constructions
- Topological Spaces and Continuity
- Topology of ℝ
2 · Summary
The two-point Bernoulli pair gives an everywhere positive likelihood ratio and verifies the change-of-measure identity by direct summation. Two disjoint point masses show why an arbitrary pair of laws need not have a full likelihood-ratio density: the denominator gives zero mass to the numerator's support.
3 · Logical flowchart
4 · Definitions, theorems and proofs
None yet.
5 · Examples, counterexamples and false statements
Bernoulli likelihood ratio and change of measure
Example
Let , , and let be counting measure. Set and define the experiment's probability measures by
Both are dominated by . Their likelihood-ratio density is and .
Facts & Assumptions
Given: AC (for the linked general theorem), the two-point measurable space, counting measure, and probability mass assignments in the example.
Sigma-algebras: a sigma-algebra is an algebra of subsets closed under countable unions; the full power set of is such an algebra.
Measurable spaces and measurable sets: a measurable space is a set with a sigma-algebra.
Counting measure on an arbitrary set, Counting measure is a measure, and Finite, sigma-finite, and semifinite measures: counting measure assigns mass to each singleton and is a measure; here its total mass is , so it is finite and sigma-finite.
Probability measures and probability spaces: a measure of total mass is a probability measure.
Statistical experiments: an experiment is a parameter-indexed family of probability measures on one measurable sample space.
Dominated statistical experiments: domination means each sampling law is absolutely continuous with respect to the supplied sigma-finite positive measure.
Likelihood densities: for a fixed observation , likelihood is the selected density value .
Likelihood ratio as a Radon–Nikodym derivative: for , the full likelihood-ratio class is .
Likelihood-ratio change of measure: when , a nonnegative likelihood-ratio representative satisfies for every nonnegative measurable and every -integrable real .
The Axiom of Choice: AC states that every family of nonempty sets has a choice function; the finite example itself uses explicit mass functions.
Verification
Given: , the four masses above, and counting measure .
The full power set is a sigma-algebra by [F1], so [F2] gives a measurable space. The counting measure is finite with by [F3], hence sigma-finite. Each displayed mass is nonnegative and the two masses for each sum to . For any disjoint sequence of events, each point belongs to at most one event, so the mass formula is countably additive; each is therefore a probability measure by [F4]. Since counting measure assigns positive mass to every nonempty subset, , and the family is a dominated experiment by [F5]–[F6].
Put for . For every , , so these are density representatives as in [F7]. Since is positive at both points, ; define . For every , ; thus represents the likelihood-ratio derivative [F8], with and .
For any real-valued on , . Thus the change-of-measure identity holds directly, in agreement with [A1, F9].
A singular pair has no full likelihood ratio
Statement refuted
On a finite sample space with counting measure, for any probability laws , the pointwise quotient is finite at every point and represents as a density with respect to .
Facts & Assumptions
Given: AC (for the linked likelihood-ratio definition and theorem), and probability measures on with .
The Axiom of Choice: AC states that every family of nonempty sets has a choice function.
Sigma-algebras and Measurable spaces and measurable sets: the full power set of a finite set is a sigma-algebra and gives a measurable space.
Probability measures and probability spaces: a probability measure is a measure of total mass .
Counting measure on an arbitrary set, Counting measure is a measure, and Measures on sigma-algebras: counting measure assigns unit mass to each singleton and is a measure on the finite power-set space.
Absolute continuity of a signed or complex measure with respect to a positive measure: a measure is absolutely continuous when it vanishes on every null set of the reference measure.
Mutual singularity for signed or complex measures: singularity is witnessed by disjoint measurable carriers on which each measure vanishes off its own carrier.
Likelihood ratio as a Radon–Nikodym derivative: the likelihood-ratio class for a general pair is the derivative of the absolutely continuous component; the singular component remains separate.
The Lebesgue decomposition of a sigma-finite signed measure is unique: a decomposition into an absolutely continuous and singular part is unique.
Likelihood-ratio change of measure: the change-of-measure identity assumes .
A nonnegative integral over a null set vanishes: the integral of a nonnegative measurable function over a null set is zero.
Counterexample
Take and , where if and otherwise. With respect to counting measure their densities are and .
Given: and on the finite measurable space above.
The full power set is a sigma-algebra by [F1]. Each has total mass and is countably additive: in a disjoint sequence, at most one set contains , so the sum of its values equals its value on the union. Thus are probability measures by [F2]. The set is -null and has -mass , so by [F4]. The singleton carriers show by [F5].
The decomposition relative to is : the zero measure is absolutely continuous with respect to , and is singular to by step 1.1. By uniqueness [F9], this is the decomposition in [F6], so the likelihood-ratio class is zero -almost everywhere. At , the point-mass quotient has denominator and is undefined.
If a nonnegative density represented all of with respect to , then by [F8], contradicting . Thus no full density exists. The hypothesis of [F7] fails, so this does not contradict the dominated change-of-measure theorem.