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Domination and Likelihood Ratios — Examples

1 · Prerequisites

2 · Summary

The two-point Bernoulli pair gives an everywhere positive likelihood ratio and verifies the change-of-measure identity by direct summation. Two disjoint point masses show why an arbitrary pair of laws need not have a full likelihood-ratio density: the denominator gives zero mass to the numerator's support.

3 · Logical flowchart

4 · Definitions, theorems and proofs

None yet.

5 · Examples, counterexamples and false statements

ExampleConstruction: AI-generatedVerification: AI-generatedprecheck passjudge pass (gpt-6-luna)Open item page →

Bernoulli likelihood ratio and change of measure

Example

Let X={0,1}, A=2X, and let μ be counting measure. Set Θ={0,1} and define the experiment's probability measures by

P0({1})=13,P0({0})=23,P1({1})=23,P1({0})=13.

Both are dominated by μ. Their likelihood-ratio density is r(0)=1/2 and r(1)=2.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: AC (for the linked general theorem), the two-point measurable space, counting measure, and probability mass assignments in the example.

[F1]

Sigma-algebras: a sigma-algebra is an algebra of subsets closed under countable unions; the full power set of {0,1} is such an algebra.

[F2]

Measurable spaces and measurable sets: a measurable space is a set with a sigma-algebra.

[F3]

Counting measure on an arbitrary set, Counting measure is a measure, and Finite, sigma-finite, and semifinite measures: counting measure assigns mass 1 to each singleton and is a measure; here its total mass is 2, so it is finite and sigma-finite.

[F4]

Probability measures and probability spaces: a measure of total mass 1 is a probability measure.

[F5]

Statistical experiments: an experiment is a parameter-indexed family of probability measures on one measurable sample space.

[F6]

Dominated statistical experiments: domination means each sampling law is absolutely continuous with respect to the supplied sigma-finite positive measure.

[F7]

Likelihood densities: for a fixed observation x, likelihood is the selected density value pθ(x).

[F8]

Likelihood ratio as a Radon–Nikodym derivative: for P1≪P0, the full likelihood-ratio class is dP1/dP0.

[F9]

Likelihood-ratio change of measure: when P1≪P0, a nonnegative likelihood-ratio representative satisfies EP0[gr]=EP1[g] for every nonnegative measurable g and every P1-integrable real g.

[A1]

The Axiom of Choice: AC states that every family of nonempty sets has a choice function; the finite example itself uses explicit mass functions.

Verification

Given: X={0,1}, the four masses above, and counting measure μ.

1.1F1F2F3F4F5F6givenalgebra

The full power set is a sigma-algebra by [F1], so [F2] gives a measurable space. The counting measure is finite with μ(X)=2 by [F3], hence sigma-finite. Each displayed mass is nonnegative and the two masses for each Pi sum to 1. For any disjoint sequence of events, each point belongs to at most one event, so the mass formula is countably additive; each Pi is therefore a probability measure by [F4]. Since counting measure assigns positive mass to every nonempty subset, Pi≪μ, and the family is a dominated experiment by [F5]–[F6].

1.2A1F7F8givenalgebra

Put pi(x):=Pi({x}) for i∈{0,1}. For every A⊆X, ∫Api dμ=∑x∈Api(x)=Pi(A), so these are density representatives as in [F7]. Since p0 is positive at both points, P1≪P0; define r(x)=p1(x)/p0(x). For every A⊆X, ∫Ar dP0=∑x∈Ar(x)p0(x)=∑x∈Ap1(x)=P1(A); thus r represents the likelihood-ratio derivative [F8], with r(0)=(1/3)/(2/3)=1/2 and r(1)=(2/3)/(1/3)=2.

2.1A1F9givenalgebra∎

For any real-valued g on X, EP0[gr]=23g(0)12+13g(1)2=13g(0)+23g(1)=EP1[g]. Thus the change-of-measure identity holds directly, in agreement with [A1, F9].

CounterexampleConstruction: AI-generatedVerification: AI-generatedprecheck passjudge pass (gpt-6-luna)Open item page →

A singular pair has no full likelihood ratio

Statement refuted

On a finite sample space with counting measure, for any probability laws P0,P1, the pointwise quotient r(x)=p1(x)/p0(x) is finite at every point and represents P1 as a density with respect to P0.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: AC (for the linked likelihood-ratio definition and theorem), and probability measures on X={0,1} with A=2X.

[A1]

The Axiom of Choice: AC states that every family of nonempty sets has a choice function.

[F1]

Sigma-algebras and Measurable spaces and measurable sets: the full power set of a finite set is a sigma-algebra and gives a measurable space.

[F2]

Probability measures and probability spaces: a probability measure is a measure of total mass 1.

[F3]

Counting measure on an arbitrary set, Counting measure is a measure, and Measures on sigma-algebras: counting measure assigns unit mass to each singleton and is a measure on the finite power-set space.

[F4]

Absolute continuity of a signed or complex measure with respect to a positive measure: a measure is absolutely continuous when it vanishes on every null set of the reference measure.

[F5]

Mutual singularity for signed or complex measures: singularity is witnessed by disjoint measurable carriers on which each measure vanishes off its own carrier.

[F6]

Likelihood ratio as a Radon–Nikodym derivative: the likelihood-ratio class for a general pair is the derivative of the absolutely continuous component; the singular component remains separate.

[F9]

The Lebesgue decomposition of a sigma-finite signed measure is unique: a decomposition into an absolutely continuous and singular part is unique.

[F7]

Likelihood-ratio change of measure: the change-of-measure identity assumes P1≪P0.

[F8]

A nonnegative integral over a null set vanishes: the integral of a nonnegative measurable function over a null set is zero.

Counterexample

Take P0=δ0 and P1=δ1, where δi(A)=1 if i∈A and 0 otherwise. With respect to counting measure their densities are p0(0)=1,p0(1)=0 and p1(0)=0,p1(1)=1.

Given: P0=δ0 and P1=δ1 on the finite measurable space above.

1.1F1F2F4F5givenalgebra

The full power set is a sigma-algebra by [F1]. Each δi has total mass 1 and is countably additive: in a disjoint sequence, at most one set contains i, so the sum of its values equals its value on the union. Thus P0,P1 are probability measures by [F2]. The set {1} is P0-null and has P1-mass 1, so P1≪̸P0 by [F4]. The singleton carriers show P0⊥P1 by [F5].

2.1A1F3F5F6F9step 1.1given

The decomposition relative to P0 is P1=0+P1: the zero measure is absolutely continuous with respect to P0, and P1 is singular to P0 by step 1.1. By uniqueness [F9], this is the decomposition in [F6], so the likelihood-ratio class is zero P0-almost everywhere. At x=1, the point-mass quotient has denominator p0(1)=0 and is undefined.

3.1A1F7F8step 1.1givencontradiction: algebra∎

If a nonnegative density q represented all of P1 with respect to P0, then P1({1})=∫{1}q dP0=0 by [F8], contradicting P1({1})=1. Thus no full density exists. The hypothesis of [F7] fails, so this does not contradict the dominated change-of-measure theorem.