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An external dominating law need not be a valid sufficiency reference

Statement refuted

The implication “T sufficient and Pθ≪R for every θ imply dPθ/dR is σ(T)-measurable” is false if the reference probability R is not required to belong to the family (or to share its conditional law given T).

Facts & Assumptions

Given: X={0,1}2 with its full σ-field; Θ=(0,1); Pθ(1,0)=θ, Pθ(0,0)=1−θ, and zero mass on the other two points; T(t,u)=t; and R uniform on four points.

[F1]

Sufficient statistics: sufficiency is one common conditional law of the data given T.

[F2]

Standard Borel spaces: finite sets with their full sigma-fields are standard Borel, since the discrete metric is complete and separable.

[F3]

Likelihood densities: a density relative to R is the pointwise RN derivative on this finite space.

[F4]

Probability measures and probability spaces: a probability law assigns total mass one and nonnegative masses to the four points.

[F5]

The Dirac set function at a point: the Dirac set function is δx(A)=1A(x).

[F6]

Measure kernel and probability kernel: a probability kernel has measurable event evaluations and probability-measure sections.

Proof

1.1F1F2F4F5F6givenconstruct

Define K(t,A)=1A((t,0)) for t∈{0,1}. Each section is the Dirac set function [F5]: it vanishes on the empty set, has total mass one, and is countably additive because a disjoint family contains (t,0) in at most one member. Thus each section is a probability measure [F4]. All evaluations are measurable on the finite full sigma-field, so [F6] makes K a probability kernel independent of θ, between the standard Borel spaces in [F2]. For every A⊆X and C⊆{0,1}, Pθ(A∩T−1(C))=∑t∈C1A((t,0))Pθ({(t,0)})=∫CK(t,A)PθT(dt). Hence T is sufficient by [F1].

1.2F3F4givenalgebra

Every atom of R has mass 1/4, so Pθ≪R. The density values are dPθ/dR(t,u)=4Pθ(t,0) if u=0 and zero if u=1. For fixed t, the two points (t,0) and (t,1) have the same T value but different derivative values. Every atom has positive R-mass, so no modification on an R-null set can change them; the derivative has no σ(T)-measurable version.

2.1F1step 1.1step 1.2givenalgebra∎

This refutes the implication with an arbitrary external reference. Taking the reference to be a member Pθ0 restores the common conditional law needed for the criterion: the conditional kernel at the reference is then the model’s shared kernel. The counterexample’s R has conditional second coordinate uniform given T, while each model law has second coordinate zero, identifying the precise missing hypothesis.

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