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A curved normal family can make a sufficient statistic incomplete

Statement refuted

Assume AC. A curved exponential subfamily can have a sufficient canonical statistic that is not complete.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: AC; X1,X2 iid N(θ,θ2) for θ>0; T=(S1,S2)=(X1+X2,X12+X22); and g(s1,s2)=s12−32s2.

[A1]

The Axiom of Choice: AC is required by the normal-law construction and the RN criterion below.

[F1]

Exponential families and full rank: in the representation hexp⁡(η⋅T−A(η)), the coordinates in the exponential are the canonical statistic.

[F2]

Standard Borel spaces, Statistics and estimators, and Continuous functions on Euclidean spaces are Borel measurable: R2 with its Borel sigma-algebra is standard Borel, and the polynomial map T is a statistic.

[F3]

Complete statistics: an integrable mean-zero function of T that is nonzero with positive probability disproves completeness.

[F4]

Standard normal and normal laws and Gaussian even moments for Brownian increments: Xi has the law of θ+θZi for Zi∼N(0,1); symmetry gives EZi=0 and EZi2=1.

[F6]

Tonelli's theorem for nonnegative measurable functions on a sigma-finite product: the product normal density integrates by iterated integration.

[F7]

Common-reference factorization criterion for sufficiency: if an in-model reference dominates the family and its likelihood ratios are Borel functions of T, then T is sufficient.

[F8]

Linearity, monotonicity, and the modulus bound for expectation: expectation is linear for integrable terms.

[F9]

The measure with density f relative to μ and For sigma-finite factors, the product measure exists, has the rectangle formula, is sigma-finite, and is unique: a nonnegative product density defines a measure, and a product measure is determined by its values on measurable rectangles.

[F10]

A C^1 diffeomorphism satisfies the change-of-variables formula for nonnegative Lebesgue measurable functions: the affine diffeomorphism z↦θ+θz transforms the standard normal density into the N(θ,θ2) density.

[F11]

The Borel product of R^m and R^n is the Borel sigma-algebra of R^{m+n}: Borel rectangles generate the Borel sigma-algebra of R2.

Proof

1.1A1F1F2F4F5F6F7F9F10F11givenalgebra

The map T is polynomial and hence a statistic by [F2]. Let λB be one-dimensional Lebesgue measure restricted to B(R); the Borel half-open intervals (−k,k] give it a sigma-finite cover of finite measure by [F5]. By [F4] and the affine change of variables [F10] for z↦θ+θz, each Xi has Borel density qθ(xi)=(2πθ)−1e−(xi−θ)2/(2θ2) relative to λB. Independence [F5] gives the joint law PθX1×PθX2. The measure with density qθ(x1)qθ(x2) relative to λB×λB exists by [F9]; Tonelli [F6] shows that it has total mass one and agrees with this product law on every measurable rectangle. By [F11], these rectangles generate the Borel sigma-algebra of R2, so the product-measure uniqueness clause [F9] identifies this density measure with the joint law. Expanding its density gives pθ(x1,x2)=(2π)−1θ−2exp⁡(−S2/(2θ2)+S1/θ−1). Put u=1/θ, h(x1,x2)=(2π)−1, Ω={(u,−u2/2):u>0}, and A(u,−u2/2)=1−2log⁡u. Then pθ=hexp⁡{uS1−u2S2/2−A(u,−u2/2)}, with normalizer Z(u,−u2/2)=eA=e/u2; the normalization follows from the product normal density just derived. Thus the canonical statistic is (S1,S2), and the natural parameter set lies on η2=−η12/2, so it contains no open subset of R2. Both densities are strictly positive, so Pθ≪Pθ0 for any fixed θ0>0. Their ratio is a Borel function of T; since Pθ0 is a model member, [F7] proves sufficiency.

2.1F3F4F5F6F8step 1.1givenalgebra

From Xi=θ+θZi and [F4], EθXi=θ and EθXi2=2θ2. The bound ∣z∣≤1+z2 gives E∣Zi∣≤1+EZi2=2, hence Eθ∣Xi∣<∞. Let qθ be the one-dimensional normal density from step 1.1 and write x+=max⁡(x,0), x−=max⁡(−x,0). Independence [F5] identifies the joint law with the product of the two marginal laws, each having density qθ. Tonelli [F6] therefore gives, for every a,b∈{+,−}, Eθ[X1aX2b]=(∫Rxaqθ(x) dx)(∫Rxbqθ(x) dx), where all four factors are finite by Eθ∣Xi∣<∞. Subtracting the four finite identities yields Eθ[X1X2]=(EθX1)(EθX2); linearity [F8] now gives EθS12=EX12+EX22+2EX1EX2=6θ2, while EθS2=4θ2. Hence Eθg(T)=6θ2−32(4θ2)=0 for every θ>0. Also ∣g(T)∣≤S12+32S2, whose expectation is finite, so g(T) is integrable.

3.1F3F5F9step 2.1givenalgebrastep 1.1∎

At (x1,x2)=(1,0), g(T)=−1/2. By continuity it is nonzero on a neighborhood. The density in step 1.1 is continuous and strictly positive at this point, so there is a smaller nondegenerate rectangle inside that neighborhood on which the density is bounded below by half its value at (1,0). The rectangle has positive λB×λB measure by the one-dimensional box formula and the product rectangle formula [F5, F9], hence it has positive probability under every θ>0. Therefore g(T) is not zero almost surely, contradicting completeness [F3].

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