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Conditioning a known state and independent noise
Statement
Assume the Axiom of Choice for the conditional-expectation interface. Let be a probability space, let be a sub-sigma-algebra, let be an -valued random element that is -measurable, and let be a -valued random element whose sigma-algebra is independent of . Let be the law of on . If is bounded and -measurable, then is -measurable and
Facts & Assumptions
Given: AC, a probability space, a sub-sigma-algebra , a -measurable random element , a random element with independent of , and a bounded product-measurable .
Measurability of for a finite kernel , in particular a probability kernel, is theorem-level; the constant map is a probability kernel because is constant. Measure kernel and probability kernel Measurability of integration against a kernel
A conditional-expectation version is characterized by its -event integrals, and versions are unique almost surely. Conditional expectation given a sigma algebra Conditional expectation as an ae class Conditional expectation is unique almost surely
Bounded -measurable factors come out of the conditional expectation, and conditional expectation is linear on integrable inputs. Taking out what is known Basic algebra and order properties of conditional expectation
If a random variable has the independence rectangle identity against , its conditional expectation given is its mean; this applies to for because is independent of . Conditioning a known variable and an independent variable Independent sigma-algebras and independent events Independent random elements
The product sigma-algebra is generated by the measurable rectangles, which form a pi-system containing the whole space; a lambda-system containing a pi-system contains the generated sigma-algebra. Dynkin's pi-lambda theorem The product sigma-algebra and its finite iterates
Sections of product-measurable sets are measurable, and compositions of a measurable map with a measurable function are measurable. Every section of a product-measurable function is measurable Closure properties of measurable functions used by the integral Law or distribution of a random element
Nonnegative measurable functions are increasing limits of nonnegative simple functions, and monotone convergence passes those limits through integrals. Every nonnegative measurable function is the increasing limit of simple measurable functions Monotone convergence for the integral
AC supplies the conditional-expectation existence used in [F2]. The Axiom of Choice
Proof
Fix a measurable rectangle with and . The indicator has bounded -measurable factor , so [F3] and then [F4] give almost surely; since , this is the asserted identity for rectangles.
Let be the class of with almost surely, where and . Each is measurable by [F6], the constant kernel is a probability kernel and [F1] makes -measurable, while is then -measurable and bounded by [F6]. Step 1.1 shows that contains every measurable rectangle.
The class is a lambda-system on . It contains because for every , so both sides of its defining conditional-expectation identity are . If lie in , then for every -event , subtraction of their defining event-integral identities gives , while sectionwise ; hence by [F2]. If are in with union , then for each the numbers increase to , and [F7] applied to the finite measure restricted to gives for every -event ; hence by [F2].
The measurable rectangles form a pi-system containing the product-space whole set and generate , so [F5] applied to the lambda-system gives ; that is, almost surely for every product-measurable .
Let be bounded. By [F7] there are nonnegative simple functions with pointwise, the sets being product measurable and the sums finite; step 4.1 and linearity of the integral give, for every -event , , where .
For bounded nonnegative , monotone convergence [F7] applied to and to in step 5.1 gives for every -event . Since is -measurable by [F1] and bounded by , [F2] identifies with almost surely.
For a general bounded real , apply step 6.1 to the bounded nonnegative functions and and subtract the two almost-sure identities using linearity [F3]; since pointwise, is -measurable and almost surely. This is the asserted identity, with as displayed in the statement.
The boundary cases behave as stated and need no separate treatment: gives and both sides vanish; if is a single point with its unique probability measure, then and the statement reduces to for the -measurable , which is [F3] with a deterministic factor; if or the rectangle identity of step 1.1 reads . The independence hypothesis is used exactly once, in step 1.1, and no other selection is made; AC is used only through [F8] in [F2].
Source notes
Durrett's proof of Theorem 7.2.1 conditions on the known value of and on the independent increment; van der Vaart, Section 1.4, records the rectangle-to-product-sigma-algebra Dynkin extension in this generality. The proof above isolates that extension as a lemma because the Brownian Markov, future-path and planar arguments all consume it with different state spaces and .
Depends on
- Measure kernel and probability kernel
- Measurability of integration against a kernel
- Conditional expectation given a sigma algebra
- Conditional expectation as an ae class
- Conditional expectation is unique almost surely
- Basic algebra and order properties of conditional expectation
- Independent sigma-algebras and independent events
- Independent random elements
- Conditioning a known variable and an independent variable
- Taking out what is known
- Dynkin's pi-lambda theorem
- Every section of a product-measurable function is measurable
- The product sigma-algebra and its finite iterates
- Every nonnegative measurable function is the increasing limit of simple measurable functions
- Monotone convergence for the integral
- Closure properties of measurable functions used by the integral
- Law or distribution of a random element
- The Axiom of Choice
Used by
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Sources
- Rick Durrett, Probability: Theory and Examples, fifth edition, proof of Theorem 7.2.1 (standard reference, not scraped)
- Aad van der Vaart, Martingales, Diffusions and Financial Mathematics, Section 1.4 (standard reference, not scraped)