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An independent finite random index has the weighted expectation formula

Statement

Let (Ω,F,P) be a probability space, let N≥1, and let p1,…,pN≥0 satisfy ∑k=1Npk=1. There is a probability-space extension carrying an independent random index R∈{1,…,N} with P(R=k)=pk. For any integrable real random variables H1,…,HN on the original space, the lifted random variable HR(ω,k)=Hk(ω) is integrable on the extension and satisfies E[HR]=∑k=1NpkE[Hk].

Facts & Assumptions

Given: A probability space, a positive integer N, nonnegative weights of total mass one, and integrable real random variables H1,…,HN.

[F1]

Probability measures and probability spaces: a probability measure has total mass one.

[F2]

Measures on sigma-algebras: a measure is countably additive on pairwise disjoint measurable sequences.

[F3]

Random elements and real random variables: a random element is a measurable map into its stated measurable space.

[F4]

Expectation of a nonnegative or integrable random variable: the expectation is the Lebesgue integral, extended for nonnegative functions and finite for integrable real functions.

[F5]

The Lebesgue integral is linear on L1(μ): the integral is linear on integrable functions.

[F6]

Every nonnegative measurable function is the increasing limit of simple measurable functions: each nonnegative measurable function is the increasing limit of nonnegative simple functions.

[F7]

Monotone convergence for the integral: the integrals of an increasing sequence of nonnegative measurable functions converge to the integral of its limit.

Proof

1.1F1givenconstruct

Define Ω~=Ω×{1,…,N} and let F~ consist of the sets E=⋃k=1NAk×{k} with every Ak∈F. Each such decomposition is unique, since Ak={ω:(ω,k)∈E}. The empty set and whole space have this form; complements replace each Ak by Ω∖Ak; and countable unions replace each Ak by the corresponding countable union in F. Thus F~ is a sigma-algebra.

2.1F1F2step 1.1givenalgebra

For E=⋃kAk×{k} define P~(E)=∑kpkP(Ak). This is nonnegative and P~(Ω~)=∑kpk=1. If Ej=⋃kAj,k×{k} are pairwise disjoint, then for each fixed k the sets Aj,k are pairwise disjoint. Countable additivity of P from [F2] gives P~(⋃jEj)=∑kpklim⁡m→∞∑j=1mP(Aj,k). Because the sum over k is finite, its limit commutes with this finite sum; rearranging each finite double sum gives P~(⋃jEj)=lim⁡m→∞∑j=1mP~(Ej)=∑jP~(Ej). Hence P~ is a probability measure.

3.1F1F3step 2.1givenalgebra

Let R(ω,k)=k. It is measurable because each inverse image is Ω×{k}, and P~(R=k)=pk. For every A∈F, its lift A~=A×{1,…,N} satisfies P~(A~∩{R=k})=pkP(A)=P~(A~)P~(R=k), so R is independent of all lifted original events.

3.2F4F5step 2.1givenalgebra

First suppose each Hk is a nonnegative simple function. Write it as a finite sum of nonnegative constants times indicators of measurable sets. On the kth slice, the lifted indicator of A∈F is 1A×{k}, whose integral is its probability pkP(A) by [F4] and step 2.1. Finite linearity [F5], followed by summing the finitely many slices, gives E~[HR]=∑kpkE[Hk].

4.1F6F7step 3.2algebra

For arbitrary nonnegative measurable Hk, choose increasing simple approximations Hk,m↑Hk by [F6]. Since there are finitely many k, the lifted simple functions Hm(ω,k)=Hk,m(ω) increase pointwise to HR. Apply [F7] on the extension and on the original space to the simple-function identity of step 3.2; the finite sum over k commutes with the increasing limit. Therefore E~[HR]=∑kpkE[Hk] for all nonnegative measurable Hk.

5.1F4F5step 4.1givenalgebra∎

For integrable real Hk, apply step 4.1 separately to Hk+ and Hk−. Their weighted expectations are finite because ∑kpkE∣Hk∣<∞. Subtracting the two nonnegative identities using [F5] proves both integrability of HR and the stated expectation formula. The extension and selector are explicitly finite-slice constructions, so this proof uses no choice axiom.

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