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Likelihood tilts are sigma-finite measures

Statement

Under the hypotheses and conventions of Likelihood-tilted measures at a KL projection, each Qθ is a sigma-finite measure. The definition does not require its total mass to be one; the companion examples exhibit masses below and above one, while Qθ∗(X)=1 for the selected minimizer.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: A probability measure P0, supplied finite-valued measurable densities pθ and pθ∗, and pθ∗>0 P0-almost surely.

[F1]

Likelihood-tilted measures at a KL projection: Qθ(A) is the integral of the nonnegative ratio pθ/pθ∗ against P0, with the ratio set to zero where pθ∗=0.

[F2]

Arithmetic and lattice operations preserve measurability whenever they are defined: scalar multiples, everywhere-defined sums, products, and lattice operations of measurable extended-real functions are measurable.

[F3]

The indefinite integral of a nonnegative measurable function is a measure: if f≥0 is measurable, then A↦∫Af dP0 is a measure.

[F5]

Threshold characterisations of real-valued and extended-real-valued measurability: a function is measurable if and only if all its strict upper real threshold sets are measurable.

Proof

Given: The hypotheses and conventions in the Statement.

1.1F1F2F5givenalgebra

Fix θ and define rθ=pθ/pθ∗ on {pθ∗>0} and rθ=0 elsewhere. The supplied finite-valued nonnegative densities make rθ nonnegative and finite everywhere. For every real a≥0, {rθ>a}={pθ∗>0}∩{pθ−apθ∗>0}. The difference is an everywhere-defined measurable function by [F2], so this intersection is measurable. For a<0, the threshold set is X. Thus [F5] proves measurability of rθ, and Qθ(A)=∫Arθ dP0 is defined for every A∈A.

2.1F1F3F4step 1.1givenalgebra∎

By [F3], Qθ is a measure. For each integer k≥1, set Ek={x:rθ(x)≤k}. These sets are measurable by step 1.1 and increase to X because rθ is finite everywhere. Moreover, Qθ(Ek)=∫Ekrθ dP0≤kP0(Ek)≤k by [F4]. Thus (Ek)k≥1 is a countable cover by finite-Qθ-measure sets, and Qθ is sigma-finite. For the selected minimizer, rθ∗=1{pθ∗>0}, so Qθ∗(X)=P0{pθ∗>0}=1 by the assumed almost-sure positivity.

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