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Regular conditional kernels push forward under measurable random maps

Statement

Let (Ω,F,P) be a probability space, let G⊆F, let X be a random element of (S,Σ), and let K be a regular conditional distribution of X given G. If T is a measurable space and g:(Ω,G)×(S,Σ)→(T,T) is measurable, then Kg(ω,B):=K(ω,{x:g(ω,x)∈B}),B∈T, is a regular conditional distribution of g(ω,X(ω)) given G.

If, in addition, U is a random element of a measurable space (V,V), is independent of G∨σ(X), and has law λ, then K(ω,⋅)⊗λ is a regular conditional distribution of (X,U) given G.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The probability space, sub-sigma-algebra, random element, regular conditional distribution, and measurable map in the statement; for the second assertion, the independent random element U and its law λ.

[F1]

A regular conditional distribution is an everywhere probability kernel whose evaluations satisfy ∫HK(ω,A) P(dω)=P(H∩{X∈A}) for every H∈G and A∈Σ. Regular conditional distribution

[F2]

Product sigma-algebras are generated by measurable rectangles. The product sigma-algebra and its finite iterates

[F3]

Every section of a probability kernel is a probability measure, and each event evaluation is measurable in the conditioning point. Measure kernel and probability kernel

[F4]

The product of two probability measures exists, is a probability measure, and has the rectangle formula. For sigma-finite factors, the product measure exists, has the rectangle formula, is sigma-finite, and is unique

[F5]

Independence of sigma-algebras gives P(A∩B)=P(A)P(B) for events from the respective sigma-algebras. Independent sigma-algebras and independent events

[F6]

Increasing limits pass through nonnegative integrals. Monotone convergence for the integral

[F7]

A lambda-system containing a generating pi-system contains its generated sigma-algebra. Dynkin's pi-lambda theorem

[F8]

Increasing pointwise limits of measurable extended-real functions are measurable. Sequential suprema, infima, limsup, liminf, and pointwise limits of measurable functions are measurable

[F9]

A finite tuple of measurable coordinate maps is measurable into the finite product sigma-algebra. Coordinate maps and permutations are measurable on finite products

[F10]

Every section of a product-measurable set is measurable in the corresponding factor. Every section of a product-measurable set is measurable

[A1]

The map g is measurable for G⊗Σ and T.

[A2]

In the second assertion, U is independent of G∨σ(X) and has law λ.

Proof

1.1F1F2

Let D consist of product-measurable sets E⊆Ω×S for which kE(ω):=K(ω,Eω) is G-measurable and ∫HkE dP=P(H∩{(ω,X(ω))∈E}) for every H∈G. For a rectangle E=A×B, kE=1AK(⋅,B) is measurable by [F1], and its integral identity follows by applying [F1] to H∩A. Thus all rectangles lie in D.

1.2A2F1F4F5

For each ω, define Kˉ(ω,⋅)=K(ω,⋅)⊗λ, which is a probability measure by [F4]. On a rectangle B×C, its evaluation is K(ω,B)λ(C), a G-measurable function. For H∈G, the integral of this evaluation over H equals λ(C)P(H∩{X∈B}) by [F1]. Since H∩{X∈B}∈G∨σ(X), independence [A2, F5] makes this P(H∩{X∈B}∩{U∈C}).

2.1F1F2F6F7F8step 1.1

The whole space is in D. If E∈D, then kEc=1−kE and the integral identity for Ec follows by subtracting the identity for E from P(H). If Ej are disjoint members of D, then their sections are disjoint, so k∪jEj=∑jkEj pointwise; [F8] makes the increasing partial sums' limit measurable, and [F6] gives the integral identity for the union. Hence D is a lambda-system. Measurable rectangles contain Ω×S and are closed under finite intersections, so they form a pi-system generating G⊗Σ by [F2]; [F7] therefore gives D=G⊗Σ.

3.1A1F1F9F10step 2.1

For B∈T, [A1] makes E=g−1(B) product-measurable and [F10] makes its sections measurable, so Kg(ω,B) is defined. The map ω↦(ω,X(ω)) is measurable from (Ω,F) into (Ω×S,G⊗Σ): the identity map into (Ω,G) is measurable because G⊆F, and X is measurable, so [F9] applies. Therefore {g(ω,X(ω))∈B} is the measurable preimage of E under this map. Step 2.1 gives measurability and the conditional-event identity for Kg(⋅,B). For every ω, Kg(ω,⋅) is the pushforward of the probability measure K(ω,⋅), hence is a probability measure. These are exactly the clauses in [F1], so Kg is a regular conditional distribution of g(ω,X(ω)).

4.1F2F3F4F6F7F8F9step 1.2∎

The tuple (X,U) is measurable into the product space by [F9]. The class of sets in Σ⊗V for which the evaluation of Kˉ is measurable and the conditional-event identity holds is a lambda-system: complements subtract from the whole-space identity, and disjoint unions follow from countable additivity, measurable increasing limits [F8], and [F6]. It contains all rectangles by step 1.2, so [F2, F7] show that it contains Σ⊗V. Every section is the product probability measure from [F4]; consequently Kˉ is a regular conditional distribution of (X,U) given G.

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