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BH controls FDR under PRDS

Statement

Let E=((X,A),Θ,(Pθ)θ∈Θ) be a statistical experiment, let m≥1, and fix a finite family of null hypotheses H01,…,H0m with p-value statistics p1,…,pm valid for their respective nulls. For each θ, write

I0(θ):={i:θ∈H0i},m0(θ):=∣I0(θ)∣.

Assume the Axiom of Choice as required for the regular conditional-law interface in Positive regression dependence on true-null coordinates (PRDS). Suppose that, under every Pθ, the p-value vector (p1(X),…,pm(X)) is PRDS on I0(θ). Then for every q∈(0,1), the ordinary BH procedure in Benjamini–Hochberg step-up procedure satisfies

FDR⁡θ≤m0(θ)mq≤q.

The PRDS assumption is imposed only on the true-null coordinates; no independence assumption is made.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: A finite family of valid p-values, q∈(0,1), and under each Pθ the PRDS condition on the true-null set I0(θ). The PRDS regular conditional-law convention uses the Axiom of Choice as recorded in Positive regression dependence on true-null coordinates (PRDS).

[F1]

Null-valid p-values and familywise and false-discovery error rates: I0(θ) is the true-null index set, Vθ counts rejected true nulls, and FDR⁡θ=Eθ[Vθ/(R∨1)].

[F2]

Benjamini–Hochberg step-up procedure: BH takes the largest R with p(R)≤Rq/m and rejects exactly ranks 1,…,R.

[F3]

Positive regression dependence on true-null coordinates (PRDS): for each i∈I0(θ), every increasing Borel event has a conditional-probability version nondecreasing in pi on its support.

[F4]

A PRDS bound for each BH true-null contribution: under validity and PRDS on I0(θ), each true-null contribution satisfies Eθ[Ii/(R∨1)]≤q/m.

[F5]

Linearity, monotonicity, and the modulus bound for expectation: expectation is linear on finite sums of integrable random variables.

[F6]

Expectation of a nonnegative or integrable random variable: expectation is integration with respect to the specified law.

[A1]

Every p-value is valid under its own null, so each i∈I0(θ) meets the superuniformity hypothesis of [F4].

[A2]

Under every Pθ, the vector of all p-values is PRDS on the full set I0(θ), not merely pairwise positively correlated.

[A3]

The standard-Borel regular conditional-law existence interface assumes the Axiom of Choice (The Axiom of Choice) as stated in Positive regression dependence on true-null coordinates (PRDS).

Proof

technique · sum the true-null contributions

Given: The experiment, the fixed family and validity assumptions in the Statement, q∈(0,1), and the PRDS condition for every true-null set.

1.1F1F2F5F6givenconstruct

Fix θ∈Θ. Let Ii be the indicator that the BH rule [F2] rejects hypothesis i. By [F1], Vθ=∑i∈I0(θ)Ii and FDR⁡θ=Eθ[Vθ/(R∨1)]. The ratio is bounded by one, so it is integrable by [F6]; finite linearity [F5] gives FDR⁡θ=∑i∈I0(θ)Eθ[Ii/(R∨1)].

2.1F1F2F3F4A1A2A3step 1.1algebra∎

If I0(θ)=∅, step 1.1 is an empty sum and FDR is zero. Otherwise, for each i∈I0(θ), [A1] gives validity and [A2] gives PRDS on a set containing i under the AC-based conditional-law interface [A3], so [F4] bounds its contribution by q/m. Summing step 1.1 gives FDR⁡θ≤∣I0(θ)∣q/m=(m0(θ)/m)q≤q. Only the designated true-null coordinates are needed; independence is not assumed.

Remarks

The Axiom of Choice enters through the standard-Borel regular conditional-law interface that gives the stated PRDS condition its kernel formulation. The finite sum of null contributions uses no additional choice. Pairwise covariance information alone does not supply the hypothesis; the companion examples include a valid-p-value witness.

Depends on

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