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Cox partial-likelihood score expansion and estimator linearization

Statement

Assume AC. Let p<∞, τ>0, and β0∈Rp. Let subjects Oi=(Ti,Ci,Zi(⋅)) be IID and independent. Assume the Cox model of Cox proportional-hazards model and partial likelihood with bounded predictable covariates ∥Zi(t)∥2≤K, baseline λ0∈L1[0,τ], and no tied failures. Assume the positive population risk denominators of Integrated and conditional uniform convergence of Cox risk-set sums on a compact neighborhood B of β0. In one common filtration, assume the observed event counts Ni(t)=1{Ui≤t,δi=1} have compensators Ai(t)=∫0tYi(u)eβ0TZi(u)λ0(u) du and that Mi=Ni−Ai satisfies the square-integrable counting-process contract of Simple counting-process intensity and compensator contract. This martingale contract is an explicit model assumption. No bracketing or time-class regularity is required: the risk-set lemma supplies the integrated parameter-uniform laws for these bounded predictable paths.

Let I be the matrix in Uniform Cox partial-likelihood Hessian convergence and assume I is positive definite. Let β^n be a measurable Rp-valued estimator such that, with probability tending to one, it solves the partial-likelihood score equation Un(β^n)=0, and suppose β^n→Pβ0. Then n(β^n−β0)=I−11n∑i=1n∫0τ{Zi(t)−zˉ(t)} dMi(t)+oP(1),zˉ(t)=s(1)(t,β0)s(0)(t,β0). The proof establishes the partial-likelihood score representation locally; it does not treat the score summands with the random risk-set mean as IID.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: AC; the IID Cox model and risk-process conventions; the stated risk-support condition; the square-integrable common-filtration counting-process contracts; no tied failures; I≻0; and a measurable consistent score root.

[F1]

Cox proportional-hazards model and partial likelihood: Lp(β) is the product of untied event weights divided by the risk-set weight sums, with Yi(t)=1{Ui≥t}.

[F2]

Statistics and estimators: an estimator is a measurable statistic with the stated target space.

[F3]

Uniform Cox partial-likelihood Hessian convergence: uniformly on B, n−1Hn(β)+J(β)→P0, and J(β0)=I.

[F4]

Cox score martingale representation and random-risk-mean replacement: n−1/2Un(β0)=n−1/2∑iξi+oP(1), with IID centered ξi of covariance I and normalized sum OP(1).

[F5]

Stochastic order and convergence notation for finite-dimensional random vectors: oP(1) is convergence in probability to zero and OP(1) is boundedness in probability.

[A1]

AC is inherited from the observation, predictability, and counting-process martingale interfaces. The Axiom of Choice

Proof

technique · Use the uniform Hessian limit along the consistent root's line segment and the separately established score representation
1.1A1F2F3F5given

Put Δn=β^n−β0 and Gn=∫01n−1Hn(β0+sΔn) ds. Since Δn→P0, the segment lies in B with probability tending to one. The Hessian lemma gives uniform convergence to −J(β), and J is continuous at β0 by bounded covariates, the positive risk denominator, and λ0∈L1. Therefore Gn→P−I.

2.1givenstep 1.1algebra

Since I is positive definite, it is invertible. Matrix inversion is continuous at the nonsingular matrix −I, so Gn is invertible with probability tending to one and Gn−1→P−I−1.

2.2F1givenstep 1.1

On the event that β^n is a score root and the segment lies in B, the fundamental theorem of calculus applied to the continuously differentiable finite-sample score gives 0=Un(β^n)=Un(β0)+nGnΔn. Thus nΔn=−Gn−1{Un(β0)/n}.

3.1F4F5step 2.1step 2.2algebra∎

Substitute [F4]. Its normalized IID sum is OP(1), so the product of that sum with Gn−1+I−1=oP(1) is oP(1). Hence nΔn=I−1n−1/2∑i=1nξi+oP(1)=I−1n−1/2∑i=1n∫0τ{Zi(t)−zˉ(t)} dMi(t)+oP(1), which is the asserted expansion.

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