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General-state Markov-chain convergence under recurrence conditions
Statement
Let be countably generated, -irreducible (Phi-irreducibility for a general-state Markov kernel) and aperiodic (Aperiodicity for a general-state Markov kernel) with invariant probability . Then for -almost every . If is Harris recurrent relative to (Harris recurrence relative to an irreducibility measure), convergence holds for every starting state.
Facts & Assumptions
Given: The kernel, irreducibility, aperiodicity, invariant probability and, for the all-start conclusion, Harris recurrence.
Aperiodicity for a general-state Markov kernel: no positive-mass cyclic family has deterministic transitions to its successor.
Harris recurrence relative to an irreducibility measure: every positive- set is hit almost surely from every state.
Invariant and stationary distribution for a Markov kernel: is stationary.
Total variation distance for probability laws: total variation is the supremum of measurable event-probability differences.
A countably generated phi-irreducible chain has a positive-measure small set: a countably generated irreducible chain has a small set with and .
Small-set coupling yields almost-everywhere total-variation convergence: aperiodicity and such a small set imply -almost-everywhere convergence.
Approximation in symmetric difference by a generating algebra: finite-measure events are approximable by a countable generating algebra, making the total-variation supremum countable.
Discrete strong Markov property: at the finite hitting time, the future law is the kernel iterate from the hit state.
Canonical Markov chain on path space: the transition kernel has its canonical path law under the declared choice convention.
Dominated convergence: bounded pointwise-convergent functions may be integrated through limits under a finite measure.
The Axiom of Choice: the path-law construction uses AC as specified in [F9].
Proof
Given: The hypotheses and facts [F1]–[F9], with [A1].
Apply [F6] under the aperiodicity and invariance hypotheses [F1] and [F3]. This gives convergence on a set with . The set is measurable because [F7] expresses total variation as a supremum over the countable generating algebra.
Assume Harris recurrence and let be any -null measurable set. If , [F2] says every start hits almost surely. Averaging over would give stationary probability one to ever hitting , but stationarity gives for each , and a countable union gives probability zero. Therefore every -null set is -null. In particular , so .
Harris recurrence [F2] implies every start hits at a finite time almost surely. For fixed , split the time- law according to and . The first contribution is at most .
On , the strong Markov property [F8] gives conditional law , with . For each fixed , let be the finite law of on . For any measurable event , conditioning on and bounds the absolute event-probability difference from by Taking the supremum over gives the same bound for total variation. For fixed and , the terms with tend to zero by [F10]: the distance functions are measurable by [F7], converge pointwise on , and are bounded by one; the terms with are at most . Also . Letting first and then proves convergence. The path law is supplied by [F9] under [A1].
Depends on
- Canonical Markov chain on path space
- The Axiom of Choice
- Aperiodicity for a general-state Markov kernel
- Harris recurrence relative to an irreducibility measure
- Invariant and stationary distribution for a Markov kernel
- Measurable spaces and measurable sets
- Phi-irreducibility for a general-state Markov kernel
- Total variation distance for probability laws
- Approximation in symmetric difference by a generating algebra
- Invariant mass and almost-sure hitting of accessible sets
- A countably generated phi-irreducible chain has a positive-measure small set
- Small-set coupling yields almost-everywhere total-variation convergence
- Discrete strong Markov property
- Dominated convergence
Used by
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Sources
- Gareth O. Roberts and Jeffrey S. Rosenthal, General State Space Markov Chains and MCMC Algorithms (standard reference, not scraped)
- Randal Douc, Eric Moulines, Pierre Priouret, and Philippe Soulier, Markov Chains (standard reference, not scraped)