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Small-set coupling yields almost-everywhere total-variation convergence

Statement

Let P be countably generated, ϕ-irreducible and aperiodic with invariant probability π. If C is (m,ϵ,ν)-small, ϕ(C)>0, and ν(C)>0, then ∥Pn(x,⋅)−π∥TV→0 for π-almost every x.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The kernel, irreducibility measure, aperiodicity, invariant law and small set.

[F1]

Phi-irreducibility for a general-state Markov kernel: every positive-ϕ set is accessible from every state.

[F2]

Aperiodicity for a general-state Markov kernel: no cyclic decomposition exists on the stationary irreducible part.

[F4]

Small-set minorization and geometric drift: Pm(x,⋅)≥ϵν on C.

[F5]

Invariant mass and almost-sure hitting of accessible sets: for any stationary kernel, if every start has positive chance to hit a target, stationary almost every start hits it almost surely.

[F6]

Aperiodicity makes minorization times eventually consecutive: νPn≥cnν for all sufficiently large n when ν≪π and each state can reach the minorization.

[F7]

Finite products of probability kernels are probability kernels: independent coordinates define product probability kernels.

[F8]

Total variation duality, kernel contraction, and coupling bound: a coupling bounds total variation by its disagreement probability.

[F9]

Canonical Markov chain on path space: the kernel defines its canonical path law under its stated AC convention.

[F10]

Discrete strong Markov property: the pair chain restarts at discrete stopping times.

[F11]

Measures agreeing on a generating pi-system are equal under an increasing finite-measure exhaustion from that pi-system: finite measures agreeing on measurable rectangles agree on the product sigma-algebra.

[A1]

The Axiom of Choice: the path and split-kernel constructions use AC as specified by [F9].

Proof

Given: The hypotheses and facts [F1]–[F11], with [A1].

1.1F3F4F5

By [F5], π(C)>0. Integrating the small-set inequality over C and using invariance gives π(A)=πPm(A)≥ϵπ(C)ν(A) for all A, hence ν≪π.

2.1F1F2F4F6step 1.1

Fix x. Irreducibility gives kx with Pkx(x,C)>0, so Pkx+m(x,⋅)≥ϵPkx(x,C)ν. By [F6], νPt(C)≥ctν(C)>0 for every sufficiently large t. Thus Pn(x,C)>0 for every sufficiently large n, and in particular Pmq(x,C)>0 for every sufficiently large integer q. This holds for every x.

3.1F3F5F7F11step 2.1

Let Qˉ=(Pm)⊗(Pm). For measurable rectangles A×B, (π2Qˉ)(A×B)=(πPm)(A)(πPm)(B)=π(A)π(B). By [F11], this proves that π2 is invariant for Qˉ. By step 2.1, every starting pair has positive probability of hitting C2 under Qˉ. Apply the stationary positive-hitting lemma [F5] to Qˉ, invariant law π2, and target C2: the stationary pair hits C2 almost surely from π2-almost every pair.

4.1F3F4F5F7F9F10F11A1step 3.1

Start the pair with law π2 and run independent Qˉ transitions before each split attempt. By step 3.1 and [F5], the first hit of C2 occurs almost surely. Its location law is absolutely continuous with respect to π2: for any π2-null set N, the event that the first hit lies in N is contained in ⋃k≥0{Zk∈N}, which has probability zero by stationarity. More generally, if the pair at the start of a waiting period has any subprobability law λ≪π2, then λQˉk≪π2 for every k, because invariance gives Qˉk(z,N)=0 for π2-almost every z; hence its next first-hit location is also absolutely continuous and the hit occurs almost surely by [F5]. At a visit (x,y)∈C2 with 0<ϵ<1, use one common Bernoulli(ϵ) coin: success draws a shared ν value and couples immediately, while failure draws independently from Rx=(Pm(x,⋅)−ϵν)/(1−ϵ) and Ry. Each coordinate retains its Pm marginal. For every π2-null N, stationarity gives Qˉ((x,y),N)=0 for π2-almost every (x,y), while the product expansion gives Qˉ((x,y),⋅)≥(1−ϵ)2Rx⊗Ry; thus the failed endpoint law is absolutely continuous whenever the attempt-state law is. It therefore reaches C2 almost surely again, with an absolutely continuous first-hit law. If ϵ=1, the first split succeeds and no failure branch occurs.

5.1F3F8F9step 4.1algebra∎

Each visit succeeds with probability ϵ, so j successive failures have probability (1−ϵ)j→0. The coupling succeeds almost surely for π2-almost every initial pair. Fubini gives that for π-almost every x, a chain from x couples almost surely to an independent stationary chain. The coupling inequality gives convergence along times mn. For n=mk+s, 0≤s<m, contraction by Ps and invariance of π gives convergence for every n.

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