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Same-sample coefficient remainder is of order OP(n−1)

Statement

Use the notation Pg=∫g dP from Control-variate estimators. Let q≥1 be fixed and let (Xi)i≥1 be an IID sequence on (Ω,F,P) with law P. For each n≥1, assume P∣f∣4<∞ and P∣hj∣4<∞ for each j. Set θ=Ph, define Σjk=EP[(hj−θj)(hk−θk)] and cj=EP[(hj−θj)(f−Pf)], and suppose Σ is positive definite, meaning vTΣv>0 for every nonzero vector v. Put β∗=Σ−1c. Define fˉn=n−1∑if(Xi), hˉn=n−1∑ih(Xi),

Σ^n=1n∑i(h(Xi)−hˉn)(h(Xi)−hˉn)T,c^n=1n∑i(h(Xi)−hˉn)(f(Xi)−fˉn).

and let β^n=Σ^n−1c^n when Σ^n is invertible and 0 otherwise. Define the plug-in estimator pointwise by μ^β^n:=fˉn−β^nT(hˉn−θ). For a scalar random sequence Rn, write Rn=OP(n−1) when nRn is bounded in probability: for each ε>0 some finite M and N satisfy P(∣nRn∣>M)<ε for all n≥N. For a fixed-dimensional vector or matrix, OP(an) means its Euclidean or Frobenius norm divided by an is bounded in probability. Then

μ^β^n−μ^β∗=−(β^n−β∗)T(hˉn−θ)=OP(n−1).

This result bounds only the same-sample coefficient-times-control-mean remainder; it does not assert that μ^β^n is unbiased.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The fixed-dimensional IID sample, finite fourth moments, positive-definite population control covariance, and estimators in the Statement.

[F1]

Control-variate estimators: For a fixed coefficient β, μ^β=fˉn−βT(hˉn−θ).

[F2]

Identical distribution and IID families: The observations are mutually independent and have the same law.

[F3]

Moments, variance, and covariance on a probability space: The stated fourth moments make the displayed means and covariance entries finite; variance is the centered second moment.

[F4]

Kolmogorov iid l1 strong law: IID real variables with finite first absolute moment have sample means converging almost surely to their expectations.

[F5]

Chebyshev's inequality for random variables: For square-integrable Z, P(∣Z−EZ∣≥a)≤Var⁡(Z)/a2.

[F6]

Expectations factor over finite products of independent random variables: Products of independent integrable real variables have factored expectations.

[F7]

Linearity, monotonicity, and the modulus bound for expectation: Expectation is linear on finite integrable sums.

[F8]

Cauchy-Schwarz for random variables: For square-integrable variables, E∣XY∣≤(EX2)1/2(EY2)1/2.

[F9]

Change of variables for expectation: If X has law P and g(X) is integrable, then E[g(X)]=∫g dP.

[F10]

Measurable coordinatewise functions preserve independence: Applying measurable functions separately to an independent family preserves independence.

[F11]

Arithmetic and lattice operations preserve measurability whenever they are defined: Finite sums and products of measurable real-valued functions are measurable.

Proof

Given: The objects and hypotheses in the Statement.

1.1F2F3F4F8F9F10F11givenalgebra

The entries hj(Xi), f(Xi), hj(Xi)hk(Xi), and hj(Xi)f(Xi) are measurable by [F11]. Since each Xi has law P, applying the same measurable function to each gives a common law; [F10] preserves their mutual independence, so each resulting sequence is IID by [F2]. The fourth-moment hypothesis and [F8] make every product entry integrable, and [F9] identifies its expectation with the corresponding integral under P. Applying [F4] to these IID sequences gives hˉn→θ, fˉn→Pf, n−1∑ih(Xi)h(Xi)T→EP[hhT], and n−1∑ih(Xi)f(Xi)→EP[hf] almost surely. The centered formulas therefore give Σ^n→Σ and c^n→c almost surely; positive definiteness of Σ and continuity of determinant imply Σ^n is eventually invertible almost surely. The fallback definition makes β^n measurable: on the open nonsingular set the inverse entries are ratios of polynomial functions, and on its closed complement the value is constant.

1.2F2F3F5F6F7F8F9F10algebra

Put Wi=h(Xi)−θ and Vi=f(Xi)−Pf. The finite fourth-moment assumptions imply finite fourth moments for every component of Wi and for Vi; for example, ∣x−a∣4≤8(∣x∣4+∣a∣4). Then [F8] gives finite second moments for every product WijWik and WijVi. Each centered coordinate and product is a fixed measurable function of Xi, so [F2] and [F10] make each sequence IID. By [F9] and [F7], EWi=0, EVi=0, and the product means are Σ and c. Independence and [F6] give variance equal to the one-observation variance divided by n for each sample average. Applying [F5] with a=M/n and taking a finite union over the fixed q coordinates and matrix entries proves hˉn−θ=OP(n−1/2), fˉn−Pf=OP(n−1/2), n−1∑iWiWiT−Σ=OP(n−1/2), and n−1∑iWiVi−c=OP(n−1/2). The identities Σ^n=1n∑iWiWiT−(hˉn−θ)(hˉn−θ)T,c^n=1n∑iWiVi−(hˉn−θ)(fˉn−Pf) show that the centering corrections are OP(n−1). Thus Σ^n−Σ and c^n−c are jointly OP(n−1/2).

2.1step 1.1step 1.2algebra

On the event that Σ^n is invertible, β^n−β∗=Σ^n−1[(c^n−c)−(Σ^n−Σ)β∗], since c=Σβ∗. Step 1.1 and the adjugate-over-determinant formula show that the inverse converges to Σ−1 almost surely on the eventually nonsingular set; extending it by zero on the singular event gives an OP(1) matrix sequence. Given ε>0, choose bounds for this inverse norm and for the bracket in step 1.2 after scaling by n, with total failure probability less than ε/2. On their intersection the product is bounded after scaling by n, so β^n−β∗=OP(n−1/2) there. The singular-event probability tends to zero by step 1.1; the fallback value 0 therefore does not change this order in probability.

3.1F1givenstep 1.2step 2.1algebra∎

By the plug-in definition in the Statement and [F1] for the fixed coefficient β∗, subtracting the two estimators cancels fˉn and leaves exactly −(β^n−β∗)T(hˉn−θ). Given ε>0, choose finite bounds for each factor after scaling by n so that the probability either bound fails is less than ε/2; on their intersection, Cauchy--Schwarz in Rq bounds n times the absolute inner product by the product of those bounds. Thus the inner product is OP(n−1) by definition.

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