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Same-sample coefficient remainder is of order
Statement
Use the notation from Control-variate estimators. Let be fixed and let be an IID sequence on with law . For each , assume and for each . Set , define and , and suppose is positive definite, meaning for every nonzero vector . Put . Define , ,
and let when is invertible and otherwise. Define the plug-in estimator pointwise by . For a scalar random sequence , write when is bounded in probability: for each some finite and satisfy for all . For a fixed-dimensional vector or matrix, means its Euclidean or Frobenius norm divided by is bounded in probability. Then
This result bounds only the same-sample coefficient-times-control-mean remainder; it does not assert that is unbiased.
Facts & Assumptions
Given: The fixed-dimensional IID sample, finite fourth moments, positive-definite population control covariance, and estimators in the Statement.
Control-variate estimators: For a fixed coefficient , .
Identical distribution and IID families: The observations are mutually independent and have the same law.
Moments, variance, and covariance on a probability space: The stated fourth moments make the displayed means and covariance entries finite; variance is the centered second moment.
Kolmogorov iid l1 strong law: IID real variables with finite first absolute moment have sample means converging almost surely to their expectations.
Chebyshev's inequality for random variables: For square-integrable , .
Expectations factor over finite products of independent random variables: Products of independent integrable real variables have factored expectations.
Linearity, monotonicity, and the modulus bound for expectation: Expectation is linear on finite integrable sums.
Cauchy-Schwarz for random variables: For square-integrable variables, .
Change of variables for expectation: If has law and is integrable, then .
Measurable coordinatewise functions preserve independence: Applying measurable functions separately to an independent family preserves independence.
Arithmetic and lattice operations preserve measurability whenever they are defined: Finite sums and products of measurable real-valued functions are measurable.
Proof
Given: The objects and hypotheses in the Statement.
The entries , , , and are measurable by [F11]. Since each has law , applying the same measurable function to each gives a common law; [F10] preserves their mutual independence, so each resulting sequence is IID by [F2]. The fourth-moment hypothesis and [F8] make every product entry integrable, and [F9] identifies its expectation with the corresponding integral under . Applying [F4] to these IID sequences gives , , , and almost surely. The centered formulas therefore give and almost surely; positive definiteness of and continuity of determinant imply is eventually invertible almost surely. The fallback definition makes measurable: on the open nonsingular set the inverse entries are ratios of polynomial functions, and on its closed complement the value is constant.
Put and . The finite fourth-moment assumptions imply finite fourth moments for every component of and for ; for example, . Then [F8] gives finite second moments for every product and . Each centered coordinate and product is a fixed measurable function of , so [F2] and [F10] make each sequence IID. By [F9] and [F7], , , and the product means are and . Independence and [F6] give variance equal to the one-observation variance divided by for each sample average. Applying [F5] with and taking a finite union over the fixed coordinates and matrix entries proves , , , and . The identities show that the centering corrections are . Thus and are jointly .
On the event that is invertible, , since . Step 1.1 and the adjugate-over-determinant formula show that the inverse converges to almost surely on the eventually nonsingular set; extending it by zero on the singular event gives an matrix sequence. Given , choose bounds for this inverse norm and for the bracket in step 1.2 after scaling by , with total failure probability less than . On their intersection the product is bounded after scaling by , so there. The singular-event probability tends to zero by step 1.1; the fallback value therefore does not change this order in probability.
By the plug-in definition in the Statement and [F1] for the fixed coefficient , subtracting the two estimators cancels and leaves exactly . Given , choose finite bounds for each factor after scaling by so that the probability either bound fails is less than ; on their intersection, Cauchy--Schwarz in bounds times the absolute inner product by the product of those bounds. Thus the inner product is by definition.
Depends on
- Control-variate estimators
- Identical distribution and IID families
- Moments, variance, and covariance on a probability space
- Linearity, monotonicity, and the modulus bound for expectation
- Expectations factor over finite products of independent random variables
- Change of variables for expectation
- Kolmogorov iid l1 strong law
- Chebyshev's inequality for random variables
- Cauchy-Schwarz for random variables
- Measurable coordinatewise functions preserve independence
- Arithmetic and lattice operations preserve measurability whenever they are defined
Used by
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Sources
- Art B. Owen, Monte Carlo Theory, Methods and Examples, Chapter 8, §8.9, pp. 31–32, equations (8.33)–(8.34) (standard reference, not scraped)
- Paul Glasserman, Monte Carlo Methods in Financial Engineering, Chapter 4, §4.1.3, p. 200 (standard reference, not scraped)