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Stratified estimator unbiasedness, variance, and proportional allocation

Statement

Use the setup of Stratified Monte Carlo estimator and suppose ∫Xf2 dP<∞. Write μ=∫Xf dP, μh=EPhf, and σh2=Var⁡Ph(f). The estimator is unbiased and

Var⁡(μ^strat)=∑h=1Hph2σh2nh.

If, additionally, each nph is a positive integer and the fixed allocation is proportional, nh=nph, then the variance is no larger than that of the ordinary IID sample mean of the same total size n:

Var⁡(μ^strat)=1n∑hphσh2≤Var⁡P(f)n.

The comparison is only asserted for this proportional allocation; a general fixed allocation has the variance in the first display and need not beat the IID comparator.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The finite measurable partition, positive stratum probabilities, fixed positive sample counts, independent within- and across-stratum samples, and square-integrable f in the Statement.

[F1]

Stratified Monte Carlo estimator: Ph(B)=P(B∩Ah)/ph, and μ^strat=∑hphfˉh.

[F2]

Identical distribution and IID families: The samples within a stratum are IID when their laws agree and the family is mutually independent.

[F3]

Change of variables for expectation: Expectation of a measurable function of a variable with law Ph is its integral against Ph.

[F4]

Linearity, monotonicity, and the modulus bound for expectation: Expectation is linear for finite integrable sums.

[F5]

Expectations factor over finite products of independent random variables: Products of independent integrable variables have factored expectations.

[F6]

Moments, variance, and covariance on a probability space: Variance and covariance are centered second moments and products.

[F7]

Independent random elements: A family of random elements is independent when their generated sigma-algebras are independent.

[F8]

Disjoint groups of an independent sigma-algebra family remain independent: Disjoint groups of an independent family of sigma-algebras generate independent sigma-algebras.

[F9]

Arithmetic and lattice operations preserve measurability whenever they are defined: Finite sums and products of measurable real-valued functions are measurable.

Proof

Given: The objects and hypotheses in the Statement.

1.1F1F3F4givenalgebra

For each h, [F1] gives ∫Xf2 dPh=ph−1∫Ahf2 dP<∞. Since ∣f∣≤1+f2, f is integrable under P and every Ph. Thus [F3] gives μh=ph−1∫Ahf dP, and [F4] plus the finite partition identity yield Eμ^strat=∑hphμh=∑h∫Ahf dP=∫f dP=μ.

2.1F2F5F6step 1.1algebra

For fixed h, expand the centered square of fˉh. The diagonal terms give σh2/nh; for distinct draws the centered product expectation is zero by independence and [F5]. Thus Var⁡(fˉh)=σh2/nh.

2.2F1F3F4F6step 1.1algebra

Splitting ∫(f−μ)2dP over the partition and writing f−μ=(f−μh)+(μh−μ) on Ah, the cross term integrates to zero since ∫Ah(f−μh)dP=phEPh(f−μh)=0. Therefore Var⁡P(f)=∑hphσh2+∑hph(μh−μ)2.

3.1F1F5F7F8F9step 2.1algebra

By [F1] and [F7], the sigma-algebras generated by all individual draws are independent. Grouping them by stratum and applying [F8] shows that the sigma-algebras generated by the disjoint stratum blocks are independent. Each fˉh is measurable with respect to its block sigma-algebra because it is a finite sum of measurable values of f, using [F9]; hence the stratum averages are independent. Applying [F5] to their centered products and expanding the variance of ∑hphfˉh gives ∑hph2σh2/nh.

4.1F2F5F6step 2.1step 3.1step 2.2algebra∎

Under nh=nph, step 3.1 becomes n−1∑hphσh2. The ordinary mean of n IID P-draws has variance Var⁡P(f)/n, by the same centered-square expansion as step 2.1. Step 2.2 shows the difference is n−1∑hph(μh−μ)2≥0, proving the comparison.

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