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Spectral density of a stationary ARMA solution
Statement
Assume Countable Choice (The Axiom of Countable Choice ()).
Let be a real weakly stationary solution of the normalized coprime ARMA equation where is centered white noise with variance . If for every , then has a spectral density, under the convention and angular Lebesgue measure of total mass , given by No causal or invertible root condition is required; zeros of on the unit circle are permitted.
Facts & Assumptions
Given: Countable Choice; the normalized ARMA equation, a real weakly stationary solution, centered white noise with variance , and no zero of on the unit circle.
The Axiom of Countable Choice () is assumed for the angular Lebesgue measure and Polish-space regularity steps below.
Linear processes, white noise, and ARMA models: the equation uses the backshift and normalized real polynomials; white noise is centered, finite-variance, and uncorrelated at distinct times.
Spectral measures and the known-mean periodogram: with , a spectral measure represents by ; a spectral density means , where angular Lebesgue measure has total mass .
Absolutely summable linear filters preserve weak stationarity: two-sided filters are well-defined in , compose by convolution, and transform covariance through their coefficients.
Radon measure on an LCH space: a finite Borel measure on the compact circle is Radon when it is outer regular on Borel sets and inner regular on open sets.
Tonelli's theorem for double series of nonnegative extended real numbers permits interchanging the order of summation for absolutely summable coefficient products.
Every nonconstant polynomial in splits into linear factors: every nonconstant complex polynomial factors into linear terms over .
The unit circle with its inherited metric is compact by The multiplicative unit circle is a compact metrizable topological abelian group and For a metric space with its metric topology, compactness in the topological sense is compactness in the metric sense, and the two notions of compact subset coincide. A compact metric space is complete by A compact metric space is complete and totally bounded, and neither implication uses any choice principle, and under Countable Choice it is separable by A compact metric space has a countable dense subset, by countable choice. Thus is Polish by Polish spaces are separable completely metrizable spaces.
Under Countable Choice, every Borel probability measure on a Polish space is inner regular on all Borel sets (Assuming countable choice, Borel probability measures on Polish spaces are inner regular).
If is nonnegative and Borel measurable, then is a Borel measure (The indefinite integral of a nonnegative measurable function is a measure).
The nonnegative integral is monotone and homogeneous (Monotonicity and nonnegative homogeneity of the nonnegative integral).
A probability measure is a measure of total mass one (Probability measures and probability spaces).
Proof
Proof technique: invert by a two-sided absolutely summable Laurent filter, compute the filtered white-noise covariance, and identify its Fourier density directly.
By [F6], factor over as , with multiplicities and ; if , take the empty product . None of the roots satisfies . For a root with use on the unit circle. For a root with use there. Each coefficient sequence is in , so their finite convolution and multiplication by give a two-sided sequence with Conjugate roots occur in pairs for real . For each conjugate pair the finite convolution coefficient is unchanged by complex conjugation after reversing its summation index; real roots have real coefficients. Multiplication by real preserves reality.
The angular measure is a finite Borel measure of total mass by [F2]. Normalize it to , a Borel probability by [F11]. By [F7], is Polish, so [F8] gives compact inner approximations for every Borel set under ; scaling by gives the same property for . For any Borel , apply this inner approximation to : for every there is compact with . Then is open, contains , and . Thus is outer regular on Borel sets and inner regular on open sets; it is finite on compact sets because its total mass is finite. Hence is Radon by [F4].
Write for the two-sided absolutely convergent series constructed in step 1.1. Its product with is the constant series . Applying filter composition [F3] to the ARMA equation gives Thus every weakly stationary solution under the stated root condition is the same two-sided filtered white-noise process.
Define The series is uniformly convergent because , so is continuous, periodic, and nonnegative. It is bounded on the compact circle; therefore is a finite positive Borel measure by [F9] and [F10]. For any Borel and , outer regularity of gives an open with . Since and , this proves outer regularity of . For any open , inner regularity of gives a compact with ; the same bound on proves inner regularity of on open sets. Thus is Radon by [F4].
Applying the covariance formula in [F3] to the representation in step 2.1 and using when and otherwise gives The sum is absolutely convergent because .
Put . Since , converges uniformly to . The sequence is uniformly bounded, so converges uniformly to . Expanding each finite square gives , and [F5] gives . Hence the finite squares also converge uniformly to the full double series. Integration against preserves this uniform limit because the circle has finite measure. For each integer , where the middle integral is when and otherwise, and the last equality is step 3.1. Hence represents the autocovariance and is a spectral density under [F2].
Depends on
- Linear processes, white noise, and ARMA models
- Absolutely summable linear filters preserve weak stationarity
- Spectral measures and the known-mean periodogram
- Radon measure on an LCH space
- Every nonconstant polynomial in $\mathbb C[x]$ splits into linear factors
- Tonelli's theorem for double series of nonnegative extended real numbers
- The Axiom of Countable Choice ($\mathrm{AC}_\omega$)
- The multiplicative unit circle is a compact metrizable topological abelian group
- For a metric space with its metric topology, compactness in the topological sense is compactness in the metric sense, and the two notions of compact subset coincide
- A compact metric space is complete and totally bounded, and neither implication uses any choice principle
- A compact metric space has a countable dense subset, by countable choice
- Polish spaces are separable completely metrizable spaces
- Assuming countable choice, Borel probability measures on Polish spaces are inner regular
- Probability measures and probability spaces
- The indefinite integral of a nonnegative measurable function is a measure
- Monotonicity and nonnegative homogeneity of the nonnegative integral
Used by
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Sources
- Dewei Wang, STAT 720 Time Series Analysis, Theorem 4.4 (standard reference, not scraped)
- Nicolai Meinshausen, Time Series Analysis: Notes for the course HS 2022, spectral representation sections (standard reference, not scraped)