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Pointwise continuity alone does not guarantee the zero-tolerance limit

Statement

There is a proper prior-simulator model with parameter space N≥1, summary space R, and observed summary s0=0 such that every parameter-specific summary density is continuous at 0 and its prior average there is positive and finite, but the indicator ABC targets do not converge in total variation to the posterior selected by those density values. In fact, any common integrable envelope on any neighborhood of 0 fails to exist.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The Axiom of Countable Choice and the prior-simulator and indicator-target conventions in Approximate Bayesian computation and the tolerance-conditioned target.

[A1]

Countable Choice, as assumed by the cited zero-tolerance theorem. The Axiom of Countable Choice (ACω)

[F1]

A standard Borel space is measurably isomorphic to a Polish space with its Borel sigma-algebra. Standard Borel spaces

[F2]

At most countable means finite or in bijection with N; a Polish presentation is separable and has a compatible complete metric; the Borel sigma-algebra is generated by its open sets. Finite, countably infinite, countable, uncountable, Polish spaces are separable completely metrizable spaces, Separability: the existence of an at most countable dense subset, The Borel sigma-algebra of a topological space

[F4]
[F6]

The ABC target is the prior-predictive law restricted to the tolerance event and normalized by its positive probability; the sufficient zero-tolerance theorem states the integrable-envelope hypothesis under Countable Choice. Approximate Bayesian computation and the tolerance-conditioned target, ABC targets the density-defined summary posterior at zero tolerance

[F7]

Tonelli's theorem identifies the integral of a nonnegative product-measurable function with either iterated integral on sigma-finite product spaces. Tonelli's theorem for nonnegative measurable functions on a sigma-finite product

Proof

Given: The conventions and axiom above.

1.1givenF1F2construct

Equip N≥1 with the discrete metric d(n,m)=0 for n=m and 1 otherwise. A Cauchy sequence, meaning that its tail terms are pairwise less than every positive radius apart, is eventually constant by taking radius 1/2, so this metric is complete. The set is countable and dense in itself; each singleton is open, so every subset is open and its Borel sigma-algebra is the power set. The identity is therefore a Borel isomorphism to this Polish presentation, and [F1] gives standard Borelness.

1.2givenF3F4algebra

Put πn=1/[n(n+1)]. The partial sums telescope: ∑n=1Nπn=∑n=1N(1n−1n+1)=1−1N+1⟶1 by [F4]. Therefore Π=∑n≥1πnδn is a probability measure by [F3].

2.1givenF1F5F7step 1.1step 1.2construct

Define b(s)=141[−1,1](s), wn=1/(100n3), ϕn(s)=(4wn)−11[1/n−wn, 1/n+wn](s), and mn=b+ϕn. The two summands are nonnegative measurable functions with integrals 1/2 each, so mn is a probability density. Let K(n,ds)=mn(s) ds. It is a probability kernel: every section is a probability measure, and every function of n is measurable on the discrete parameter space. For measurable A⊆N≥1 and Lebesgue-measurable C⊆R, the ABC definition gives M(A×C)=∑n∈Aπn∫Cmn(s) ds. To extend this identity from rectangles, let E⊆N≥1×R be product-measurable and put En={s:(n,s)∈E}. The section map s↦(n,s) is measurable, so each En is Lebesgue-measurable; because N≥1 is countable discrete, E=⨆n≥1({n}×En). Countable additivity and the rectangle identity give M(E)=∑n≥1πn∫Enmn(s) λ1(ds). The function m(n,s):=mn(s) is product-measurable because N≥1 is countable discrete and every mn is measurable. The prior Π is sigma-finite and Lebesgue measure is sigma-finite, so [F7] applied to 1Em gives ∫Em(n,s) (Π×λ1)(d(n,s))=∑n≥1πn∫Enmn(s) λ1(ds). Thus M has the specified jointly measurable density on the full product sigma-algebra, not only on rectangles. The identity summary is measurable.

3.1givenF5step 1.2step 2.1algebra

For each fixed n, the spike interval is a positive distance from 0, since 1/n−wn>0. On a sufficiently small neighborhood of 0, mn(s)=1/4; hence mn is continuous at 0 and mn(0)=1/4. Thus z0=∑nπnmn(0)=1/4, and the density-selected zero-tolerance posterior is Π itself. However, for every δ>0, all sufficiently large n have 1/n<δ, and on the neighborhood (−δ,δ) any common pointwise envelope H(n) must satisfy H(n)≥mn(1/n)=14+25n3. Since πn≥1/(2n2), ∑nπnH(n)≥252∑nn=∞. Every prior atom has positive mass, so an almost-everywhere envelope condition also forces this bound for every n. No integrable local envelope exists.

3.2givenF5step 2.1algebra

For integer q≥2, take ϵq=1/q and Bq=[−1/q,1/q]. The base density contributes 1/(2q) to every parameter's ball probability by the box-volume formula [F5]. If n<q, then 1/n−wn>1/q: indeed (q−n)/(nq)≥1/(n(n+1))>1/(100n3). If n>q, then 1/n+wn<1/q: here (n−q)/(qn)≥1/(q(q+1))>1/(100(q+1)3)≥1/(100n3). Thus spikes for n<q contribute zero; the n=q ball cuts its symmetric spike at the center and captures half its mass, namely 1/4; and spikes for n>q lie wholly in the ball and contribute 1/2.

4.1givenA1F6step 1.2step 3.1step 3.2algebra∎

By [F6] and the telescoping tail ∑n>qπn=1/(q+1), the acceptance probability is pq=12q+14q(q+1)+12(q+1),qpq⟶1. For the fixed parameter event A={1}, its unnormalized accepted mass is π1/(2q)=1/(4q), because its spike lies outside Bq. Hence Πϵq(A∣0)=(1/(4q))/pq→1/4, whereas the density-selected limit assigns A mass Π(A)=1/2. The total-variation distance is at least this event-probability difference, which tends to 1/4. Thus the claimed convergence fails without the integrable-envelope condition.

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