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Pointwise continuity alone does not guarantee the zero-tolerance limit
Statement
There is a proper prior-simulator model with parameter space , summary space , and observed summary such that every parameter-specific summary density is continuous at and its prior average there is positive and finite, but the indicator ABC targets do not converge in total variation to the posterior selected by those density values. In fact, any common integrable envelope on any neighborhood of fails to exist.
Facts & Assumptions
Given: The Axiom of Countable Choice and the prior-simulator and indicator-target conventions in Approximate Bayesian computation and the tolerance-conditioned target.
Countable Choice, as assumed by the cited zero-tolerance theorem. The Axiom of Countable Choice ()
A standard Borel space is measurably isomorphic to a Polish space with its Borel sigma-algebra. Standard Borel spaces
At most countable means finite or in bijection with ; a Polish presentation is separable and has a compatible complete metric; the Borel sigma-algebra is generated by its open sets. Finite, countably infinite, countable, uncountable, Polish spaces are separable completely metrizable spaces, Separability: the existence of an at most countable dense subset, The Borel sigma-algebra of a topological space
A weighted sum of probability measures with nonnegative weights is a measure, and its total mass is the sum of the weights. Nonnegative scalar multiples and countable weighted sums of measures, Nonnegative scalar multiples and countable weighted sums of measures are measures, The Dirac set function at a point, A Dirac set function is a probability measure
The reciprocal sequence tends to zero in . For every in a complete ordered field there is a natural with
An integrable nonnegative measurable density defines a measure by integration; interval and box indicators integrate to their Lebesgue volumes. The measure with density relative to , The indefinite integral of a nonnegative measurable function is a measure, Lebesgue measurable sets, the family , and the restricted set function , A box in with parameters is Lebesgue measurable of measure , whichever of its faces are included
The ABC target is the prior-predictive law restricted to the tolerance event and normalized by its positive probability; the sufficient zero-tolerance theorem states the integrable-envelope hypothesis under Countable Choice. Approximate Bayesian computation and the tolerance-conditioned target, ABC targets the density-defined summary posterior at zero tolerance
Tonelli's theorem identifies the integral of a nonnegative product-measurable function with either iterated integral on sigma-finite product spaces. Tonelli's theorem for nonnegative measurable functions on a sigma-finite product
Proof
Given: The conventions and axiom above.
Equip with the discrete metric for and otherwise. A Cauchy sequence, meaning that its tail terms are pairwise less than every positive radius apart, is eventually constant by taking radius , so this metric is complete. The set is countable and dense in itself; each singleton is open, so every subset is open and its Borel sigma-algebra is the power set. The identity is therefore a Borel isomorphism to this Polish presentation, and [F1] gives standard Borelness.
Put . The partial sums telescope: by [F4]. Therefore is a probability measure by [F3].
Define , , , and . The two summands are nonnegative measurable functions with integrals each, so is a probability density. Let . It is a probability kernel: every section is a probability measure, and every function of is measurable on the discrete parameter space. For measurable and Lebesgue-measurable , the ABC definition gives . To extend this identity from rectangles, let be product-measurable and put . The section map is measurable, so each is Lebesgue-measurable; because is countable discrete, . Countable additivity and the rectangle identity give The function is product-measurable because is countable discrete and every is measurable. The prior is sigma-finite and Lebesgue measure is sigma-finite, so [F7] applied to gives Thus has the specified jointly measurable density on the full product sigma-algebra, not only on rectangles. The identity summary is measurable.
For each fixed , the spike interval is a positive distance from , since . On a sufficiently small neighborhood of , ; hence is continuous at and . Thus , and the density-selected zero-tolerance posterior is itself. However, for every , all sufficiently large have , and on the neighborhood any common pointwise envelope must satisfy Since , . Every prior atom has positive mass, so an almost-everywhere envelope condition also forces this bound for every . No integrable local envelope exists.
For integer , take and . The base density contributes to every parameter's ball probability by the box-volume formula [F5]. If , then : indeed . If , then : here . Thus spikes for contribute zero; the ball cuts its symmetric spike at the center and captures half its mass, namely ; and spikes for lie wholly in the ball and contribute .
By [F6] and the telescoping tail , the acceptance probability is For the fixed parameter event , its unnormalized accepted mass is , because its spike lies outside . Hence , whereas the density-selected limit assigns mass . The total-variation distance is at least this event-probability difference, which tends to . Thus the claimed convergence fails without the integrable-envelope condition.
Depends on
- Approximate Bayesian computation and the tolerance-conditioned target
- Finite, countably infinite, countable, uncountable
- The Axiom of Countable Choice ($\mathrm{AC}_\omega$)
- The Dirac set function at a point
- Lebesgue measurable sets, the family $\mathcal{L}(\mathbb{R}^n)$, and the restricted set function $\lambda_n$
- The measure with density $f$ relative to $\mu$
- Nonnegative scalar multiples and countable weighted sums of measures
- Probability measures and probability spaces
- Standard Borel spaces
- Polish spaces are separable completely metrizable spaces
- Separability: the existence of an at most countable dense subset
- The Borel sigma-algebra of a topological space
- A Dirac set function is a probability measure
- For every $\varepsilon > 0$ in a complete ordered field there is a natural $n \ge 1$ with $1/n < \varepsilon$
- A box in $\mathbb{R}^n$ with parameters $a_i\le b_i$ is Lebesgue measurable of measure $\prod_{i<n}(b_i-a_i)$, whichever of its faces are included
- Nonnegative scalar multiples and countable weighted sums of measures are measures
- ABC targets the density-defined summary posterior at zero tolerance
- The indefinite integral of a nonnegative measurable function is a measure
- Tonelli's theorem for nonnegative measurable functions on a sigma-finite product
Used by
Nothing in the library uses this result yet.
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Sources
- Jarno Lintusaari, Michael U. Gutmann, Ritabrata Dutta, Samuel Kaski, and Jukka Corander, Fundamentals and Recent Developments in Approximate Bayesian Computation (standard reference, not scraped)
- Martin, Kumar, and Lao, Bayesian Modeling and Computation in Python, Chapter 8 (standard reference, not scraped)