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ABC targets the density-defined summary posterior at zero tolerance
Statement
Assume the Axiom of Countable Choice. In the proper prior-simulator model of Approximate Bayesian computation and the tolerance-conditioned target, let , , and suppose the summary-predictive measure has a specified jointly measurable density version where is Lebesgue measure on (Lebesgue measurable sets, the family , and the restricted set function ). Assume that is continuous at for -almost every , that a measurable satisfies for some and , and that Define the density-selected summary posterior Then, for all sufficiently small for which the target is defined, the indicator ABC target converges to in total variation as .
The pointwise density version is part of the statement. The conclusion is the density-selected summary update; it does not claim that every regular conditional distribution has that value at a null summary value.
Facts & Assumptions
Given: A proper prior-simulator model, a measurable summary , the Axiom of Countable Choice, and the density and regularity hypotheses in the Statement.
Countable Choice, written , is the assertion that every sequence of nonempty sets has a choice function. The Axiom of Countable Choice ()
The function is a specified nonnegative jointly measurable density version of the summary-predictive law. For -almost every , the summary simulator has density relative to .
For -almost every , is continuous at and is bounded by the measurable integrable envelope throughout the radius- ball.
The prior-averaged density at is the finite positive number in the Statement.
The prior-simulator law and its summary-predictive pushforward define the probability measure ; the ABC target is its restriction to the tolerance event divided by that event's positive mass. Approximate Bayesian computation and the tolerance-conditioned target
is Lebesgue measure on the Lebesgue-measurable subsets of . Lebesgue measurable sets, the family , and the restricted set function
The Euclidean distance is a metric; its closed balls are closed and hence Borel. Under Countable Choice, Borel sets and boxes are Lebesgue measurable, boxes have their side-product volumes, and measure is monotone. as the set of functions , and , , are metrics on it, Arbitrary unions and finite intersections of open sets are open, open balls are open and closed balls are closed, Assuming countable choice, every Borel subset of is Lebesgue measurable, A box in with parameters is Lebesgue measurable of measure , whichever of its faces are included, Measures are monotone
For a finite kernel, or a uniformly sigma-finite kernel with a specified exhaustion, integrating a nonnegative product-measurable function gives a measurable function of the kernel input. Measurability of integration against a kernel
Tonelli's theorem permits the two orders of integration for a nonnegative measurable function on sigma-finite product spaces. Tonelli's theorem for nonnegative measurable functions on a sigma-finite product
Almost-everywhere convergence under a single integrable majorant implies convergence in . Dominated convergence
For probability measures, total variation is , without a factor of . Total variation distance for probability laws
A nonnegative measurable likelihood update is a probability exactly when its evidence is finite and positive. Evidence normalizer and fiberwise posterior update, Fiberwise posterior propriety is equivalent to finite positive evidence
A data-indexed posterior RCD has no pointwise prescribed value on a marginal-null set. Bayesian posterior as a regular conditional law
A real-parameter limit holds if it holds along every sequence of positive tolerances tending to zero. Heine criterion: iff for every sequence in converging to
Proof
Given: The hypotheses in the Statement.
Fix . The Euclidean distance is a metric by [F3], so its closed ball is closed and therefore Borel. Under [A1], [F3] makes it Lebesgue measurable. It contains the open cube of side centered at and is contained in the closed cube of side centered there: the first inclusion follows from , and the second from . The box-volume formula and monotonicity in [F3] give
Define By step 1.1, , so is a finite constant kernel from to . The stated joint measurability of and [F4] applied to make measurable. The density identity and [F5] give, for every measurable , Thus, whenever , the ABC target has density relative to . The envelope bounds , so .
Take an arbitrary sequence with . Fix any in the full-measure set where is continuous at and bounded by . Given , continuity supplies such that whenever . For all large , , and averaging over gives . Thus pointwise convergence holds for -almost every . Also and , so [F6] yields Since the sequence was arbitrary, [F10] gives this limit as . In particular , and therefore for every sufficiently small positive .
For such , the normalized densities satisfy The right side tends to zero by step 3.1. The second density integrates to one by [F8] and ; the first is the ABC target density by step 2.1.
For every measurable , the absolute difference between the two probabilities of is at most the difference in step 4.1. Taking the supremum over and using [F7] proves . The limit is the density-selected update; by [F9], no claim is made that every RCD version takes that value at a marginal-null .
Remarks
For an atomless summary, the event can have prior-predictive probability zero. In that case conditional-law identities do not choose a unique posterior value at ; the specified density version above selects one. The envelope is a substantive hypothesis: without an integrable local bound, moving density spikes can prevent total-variation convergence, as shown by Pointwise continuity alone does not guarantee the zero-tolerance limit ↗.
Depends on
- Approximate Bayesian computation and the tolerance-conditioned target
- Bayesian posterior as a regular conditional law
- The Axiom of Countable Choice ($\mathrm{AC}_\omega$)
- Lebesgue measurable sets, the family $\mathcal{L}(\mathbb{R}^n)$, and the restricted set function $\lambda_n$
- Measure kernel and probability kernel
- Evidence normalizer and fiberwise posterior update
- Probability measures and probability spaces
- Total variation distance for probability laws
- Fiberwise posterior propriety is equivalent to finite positive evidence
- Dominated convergence
- Heine criterion: $\lim_{x \to c} f(x) = L$ iff $f(x_k) \to L$ for every sequence in $A \setminus \{c\}$ converging to $c$
- $\mathbb{R}^n$ as the set of functions $n \to \mathbb{R}$, and $d_1$, $d_2$, $d_\infty$ are metrics on it
- Measures are monotone
- Assuming countable choice, every Borel subset of $\mathbb{R}^n$ is Lebesgue measurable
- Arbitrary unions and finite intersections of open sets are open, open balls are open and closed balls are closed
- A box in $\mathbb{R}^n$ with parameters $a_i\le b_i$ is Lebesgue measurable of measure $\prod_{i<n}(b_i-a_i)$, whichever of its faces are included
- Measurability of integration against a kernel
- Tonelli's theorem for nonnegative measurable functions on a sigma-finite product
Used by
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Sources
- Jarno Lintusaari, Michael U. Gutmann, Ritabrata Dutta, Samuel Kaski, and Jukka Corander, Fundamentals and Recent Developments in Approximate Bayesian Computation (standard reference, not scraped)
- Paul Fearnhead and Dennis Prangle, Constructing Summary Statistics for Approximate Bayesian Computation: Semi-automatic ABC (standard reference, not scraped)
- Martin, Kumar, and Lao, Bayesian Modeling and Computation in Python, Chapter 8 (standard reference, not scraped)