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ABC targets the density-defined summary posterior at zero tolerance

Statement

Assume the Axiom of Countable Choice. In the proper prior-simulator model of Approximate Bayesian computation and the tolerance-conditioned target, let d≥1, s0∈Rd, and suppose the summary-predictive measure has a specified jointly measurable density version M(dθ,ds)=mθ(s) Π(dθ) λd(ds), where λd is Lebesgue measure on Rd (Lebesgue measurable sets, the family L(Rn), and the restricted set function λn). Assume that s↦mθ(s) is continuous at s0 for Π-almost every θ, that a measurable H:Θ→[0,∞] satisfies mθ(s)≤H(θ)for Π-almost every θ and every ∥s−s0∥2≤ϵ0 for some ϵ0>0 and ∫H dΠ<∞, and that 0<z0:=∫Θmθ(s0) Π(dθ)<∞. Define the density-selected summary posterior Πs0m(A):=∫Amθ(s0) Π(dθ)z0. Then, for all sufficiently small ϵ>0 for which the target is defined, the indicator ABC target Πϵ(⋅∣s0) converges to Πs0m in total variation as ϵ↓0.

The pointwise density version is part of the statement. The conclusion is the density-selected summary update; it does not claim that every regular conditional distribution has that value at a null summary value.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: A proper prior-simulator model, a measurable summary S:Y→Rd, the Axiom of Countable Choice, and the density and regularity hypotheses in the Statement.

[A1]

Countable Choice, written ACω, is the assertion that every sequence of nonempty sets has a choice function. The Axiom of Countable Choice (ACω)

[A2]

The function m is a specified nonnegative jointly measurable density version of the summary-predictive law. For Π-almost every θ, the summary simulator has density mθ relative to λd.

[A3]

For Π-almost every θ, mθ is continuous at s0 and is bounded by the measurable integrable envelope H throughout the radius-ϵ0 ball.

[A4]

The prior-averaged density at s0 is the finite positive number z0 in the Statement.

[F1]

The prior-simulator law and its summary-predictive pushforward define the probability measure M; the ABC target is its restriction to the tolerance event divided by that event's positive mass. Approximate Bayesian computation and the tolerance-conditioned target

[F2]

λd is Lebesgue measure on the Lebesgue-measurable subsets of Rd. Lebesgue measurable sets, the family L(Rn), and the restricted set function λn

[F4]

For a finite kernel, or a uniformly sigma-finite kernel with a specified exhaustion, integrating a nonnegative product-measurable function gives a measurable function of the kernel input. Measurability of integration against a kernel

[F5]

Tonelli's theorem permits the two orders of integration for a nonnegative measurable function on sigma-finite product spaces. Tonelli's theorem for nonnegative measurable functions on a sigma-finite product

[F6]

Almost-everywhere convergence under a single integrable majorant implies convergence in L1. Dominated convergence

[F7]

For probability measures, total variation is sup⁡A∣μ(A)−ν(A)∣, without a factor of 1/2. Total variation distance for probability laws

[F8]

A nonnegative measurable likelihood update is a probability exactly when its evidence is finite and positive. Evidence normalizer and fiberwise posterior update, Fiberwise posterior propriety is equivalent to finite positive evidence

[F9]

A data-indexed posterior RCD has no pointwise prescribed value on a marginal-null set. Bayesian posterior as a regular conditional law

[F10]

A real-parameter limit holds if it holds along every sequence of positive tolerances tending to zero. Heine criterion: lim⁡x→cf(x)=L iff f(xk)→L for every sequence in A∖{c} converging to c

Proof

Given: The hypotheses in the Statement.

1.1givenA1F2F3algebra

Fix 0<ϵ<ϵ0. The Euclidean distance is a metric by [F3], so its closed ball Bϵ(s0) is closed and therefore Borel. Under [A1], [F3] makes it Lebesgue measurable. It contains the open cube of side 2ϵ/d centered at s0 and is contained in the closed cube of side 2ϵ centered there: the first inclusion follows from ∥x−s0∥22<d(ϵ/d)2=ϵ2, and the second from ∣xi−s0,i∣≤ϵ. The box-volume formula and monotonicity in [F3] give 0<(2ϵ/d)d≤vϵ:=λd(Bϵ(s0))≤(2ϵ)d<∞.

2.1givenA2A3F1F2F4F5step 1.1

Define qϵ(θ):=1vϵ∫Bϵ(s0)mθ(s) λd(ds). By step 1.1, 0<vϵ<∞, so Λϵ(θ,C):=λd(C∩Bϵ(s0)) is a finite constant kernel from Θ to (Rd,L(Rd)). The stated joint measurability of m and [F4] applied to Λϵ make qϵ measurable. The density identity and [F5] give, for every measurable A⊆Θ, M(A×Bϵ(s0))=vϵ∫Aqϵ(θ) Π(dθ). Thus, whenever zϵ:=∫qϵ dΠ>0, the ABC target has density qϵ/zϵ relative to Π. The envelope bounds qϵ≤H, so zϵ<∞.

3.1givenA3A4F6F10step 2.1

Take an arbitrary sequence ϵj>0 with ϵj→0. Fix any θ in the full-measure set where mθ is continuous at s0 and bounded by H(θ). Given η>0, continuity supplies δ>0 such that ∣mθ(s)−mθ(s0)∣<η whenever ∥s−s0∥2<δ. For all large j, ϵj<δ, and averaging over Bϵj(s0) gives ∣qϵj(θ)−mθ(s0)∣≤η. Thus pointwise convergence holds for Π-almost every θ. Also ∣qϵj−mθ(s0)∣≤2H and ∫H dΠ<∞, so [F6] yields ∫Θ∣qϵj(θ)−mθ(s0)∣ Π(dθ)⟶0. Since the sequence was arbitrary, [F10] gives this L1 limit as ϵ↓0. In particular zϵ→z0>0, and therefore zϵ>0 for every sufficiently small positive ϵ.

4.1givenA4F1F8step 2.1step 3.1algebra

For such ϵ, the normalized densities satisfy ∫Θ∣qϵzϵ−mθ(s0)z0∣dΠ≤1zϵ∫Θ∣qϵ−mθ(s0)∣dΠ+∣zϵ−z0∣zϵ. The right side tends to zero by step 3.1. The second density integrates to one by [F8] and 0<z0<∞; the first is the ABC target density by step 2.1.

5.1givenF7F9step 4.1∎

For every measurable A⊆Θ, the absolute difference between the two probabilities of A is at most the L1(Π) difference in step 4.1. Taking the supremum over A and using [F7] proves ∥Πϵ(⋅∣s0)−Πs0m∥TV→0. The limit is the density-selected update; by [F9], no claim is made that every RCD version takes that value at a marginal-null s0.

Remarks

For an atomless summary, the event S(Y)=s0 can have prior-predictive probability zero. In that case conditional-law identities do not choose a unique posterior value at s0; the specified density version above selects one. The envelope is a substantive hypothesis: without an integrable local bound, moving density spikes can prevent total-variation convergence, as shown by Pointwise continuity alone does not guarantee the zero-tolerance limit ↗.

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