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An identifiable model can have persistent ABC summary distortion

Statement refuted

Full-model identifiability alone does not make an ABC summary target equal the full-data posterior. In the binary experiment below the sampling laws are distinct, while a constant summary leaves every tolerance target equal to the prior.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: A finite parameter and data space, the proper prior-simulator and summary-target conventions in Bayesian model as a prior and sampling kernel and Approximate Bayesian computation and the tolerance-conditioned target.

[F1]

Model identifiability means that distinct parameters have distinct sampling laws. Identifiability of an estimand, Parametric statistical models, Observational equivalence, Estimands on a statistical model

[F2]

Sufficiency requires one parameter-independent conditional-data kernel given the summary. Sufficient statistics

[F3]

The summary map is a measurable statistic. Statistics and estimators

[F4]

A Polish presentation is separable and has a compatible complete metric; the Borel sigma-algebra is generated by its open sets. Standard Borel spaces, Polish spaces are separable completely metrizable spaces, Separability: the existence of an at most countable dense subset, The Borel sigma-algebra of a topological space

[F6]

A positive-probability ABC target is the prior-predictive law conditioned on its tolerance event. If proposal-simulator pairs form an IID sequence with the prior-simulator joint law, the first accepted rejection output has that target law. Approximate Bayesian computation and the tolerance-conditioned target, ABC rejection returns the tolerance-conditioned posterior

[F7]

A posterior kernel satisfies the conditional-law event identities, and total variation on probability laws is the supremum of event-probability differences. Bayesian posterior as a regular conditional law, Total variation distance for probability laws

Counterexample

Given: Let Θ={0,1} and Y={0,1}, both with all subsets measurable. Put prior mass 1/2 at each parameter and use the deterministic simulator K(θ,{θ})=1. Let S(y)=0∈R, and observe y0=0.

1.1givenF3F4F5construct

On either finite set, the discrete metric has values 0 and 1. Since Cauchy means that tail distances are eventually below every positive radius, a Cauchy sequence is eventually constant at radius 1/2, so the metric is complete. Each finite set is countable and dense in itself, and all singletons are open; thus its Borel sigma-algebra is the power set. The identity is a Borel isomorphism to this Polish presentation, so [F4] shows both spaces are standard Borel. By [F5], the usual metric on R is complete and separable and induces its usual Borel sigma-algebra, so the summary target is standard Borel. The constant map S is measurable.

2.1givenF1F7step 1.1algebra

The sampling laws are P0=δ0 and P1=δ1, hence P0≠P1. By [F1], the identity parameter is identifiable. The marginal probability of the observation y0=0 is 1/2; its prior-weighted likelihoods are 1/2 at parameter 0 and 0 at parameter 1. Therefore the full-data conditional law is δ0, satisfying the posterior event identity [F7].

3.1givenF6F7step 1.1step 2.1

For every ϵ≥0, the event ∣S(Y)−0∣≤ϵ is the whole data space. It has probability one, so the ABC target is the unchanged prior, with mass 1/2 at each parameter. For rejection sampling supplied with the IID pairs of [F6], the first proposal is accepted and its output has this same law. The target's total-variation distance from the full-data posterior is at least the discrepancy on {0}, namely ∣1/2−1∣=1/2, by [F7].

4.1givenF2step 1.1step 2.1∎

The statistic is not sufficient. If a common kernel Q existed, taking summary event C={0} in [F2]'s identity would force K(θ,D)=Q(0,D) for every data event D and both parameters. For D={0} this would require both Q(0,{0})=1 and Q(0,{0})=0, a contradiction. Thus identifiability does not prevent persistent distortion from an insufficient summary.

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