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An identifiable model can have persistent ABC summary distortion
Statement refuted
Full-model identifiability alone does not make an ABC summary target equal the full-data posterior. In the binary experiment below the sampling laws are distinct, while a constant summary leaves every tolerance target equal to the prior.
Facts & Assumptions
Given: A finite parameter and data space, the proper prior-simulator and summary-target conventions in Bayesian model as a prior and sampling kernel and Approximate Bayesian computation and the tolerance-conditioned target.
Model identifiability means that distinct parameters have distinct sampling laws. Identifiability of an estimand, Parametric statistical models, Observational equivalence, Estimands on a statistical model
Sufficiency requires one parameter-independent conditional-data kernel given the summary. Sufficient statistics
The summary map is a measurable statistic. Statistics and estimators
A Polish presentation is separable and has a compatible complete metric; the Borel sigma-algebra is generated by its open sets. Standard Borel spaces, Polish spaces are separable completely metrizable spaces, Separability: the existence of an at most countable dense subset, The Borel sigma-algebra of a topological space
The usual metric on is complete, the rationals are countable and dense, and its metric balls generate the usual topology. The reals are complete, is countably infinite, The rationals embed densely in the reals, as the set of functions , and , , are metrics on it, Open ball, closed ball and sphere in a metric space, The metric topology: a set is open when every one of its points has a ball around it inside the set; closed means open complement
A positive-probability ABC target is the prior-predictive law conditioned on its tolerance event. If proposal-simulator pairs form an IID sequence with the prior-simulator joint law, the first accepted rejection output has that target law. Approximate Bayesian computation and the tolerance-conditioned target, ABC rejection returns the tolerance-conditioned posterior
A posterior kernel satisfies the conditional-law event identities, and total variation on probability laws is the supremum of event-probability differences. Bayesian posterior as a regular conditional law, Total variation distance for probability laws
Counterexample
Given: Let and , both with all subsets measurable. Put prior mass at each parameter and use the deterministic simulator . Let , and observe .
On either finite set, the discrete metric has values and . Since Cauchy means that tail distances are eventually below every positive radius, a Cauchy sequence is eventually constant at radius , so the metric is complete. Each finite set is countable and dense in itself, and all singletons are open; thus its Borel sigma-algebra is the power set. The identity is a Borel isomorphism to this Polish presentation, so [F4] shows both spaces are standard Borel. By [F5], the usual metric on is complete and separable and induces its usual Borel sigma-algebra, so the summary target is standard Borel. The constant map is measurable.
The sampling laws are and , hence . By [F1], the identity parameter is identifiable. The marginal probability of the observation is ; its prior-weighted likelihoods are at parameter and at parameter . Therefore the full-data conditional law is , satisfying the posterior event identity [F7].
For every , the event is the whole data space. It has probability one, so the ABC target is the unchanged prior, with mass at each parameter. For rejection sampling supplied with the IID pairs of [F6], the first proposal is accepted and its output has this same law. The target's total-variation distance from the full-data posterior is at least the discrepancy on , namely , by [F7].
The statistic is not sufficient. If a common kernel existed, taking summary event in [F2]'s identity would force for every data event and both parameters. For this would require both and , a contradiction. Thus identifiability does not prevent persistent distortion from an insufficient summary.
Depends on
- Approximate Bayesian computation and the tolerance-conditioned target
- Bayesian model as a prior and sampling kernel
- Identifiability of an estimand
- Parametric statistical models
- Observational equivalence
- Estimands on a statistical model
- Bayesian posterior as a regular conditional law
- Measure kernel and probability kernel
- Probability measures and probability spaces
- Statistics and estimators
- Sufficient statistics
- Standard Borel spaces
- Total variation distance for probability laws
- The Borel sigma-algebra of a topological space
- Open ball, closed ball and sphere in a metric space
- The metric topology: a set is open when every one of its points has a ball around it inside the set; closed means open complement
- Polish spaces are separable completely metrizable spaces
- Separability: the existence of an at most countable dense subset
- $\mathbb{R}^n$ as the set of functions $n \to \mathbb{R}$, and $d_1$, $d_2$, $d_\infty$ are metrics on it
- The rationals embed densely in the reals
- $\mathbb{Q}$ is countably infinite
- The reals are complete
- ABC rejection returns the tolerance-conditioned posterior
Used by
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Sources
- Christian P. Robert, Jean-Marie Cornuet, Jean-Michel Marin, and Natesh S. Pillai, Lack of Confidence in Approximate Bayesian Computation Model Choice (standard reference, not scraped)
- Jarno Lintusaari, Michael U. Gutmann, Ritabrata Dutta, Samuel Kaski, and Jukka Corander, Fundamentals and Recent Developments in Approximate Bayesian Computation (standard reference, not scraped)