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Ergodic time-series sample means converge almost surely and in L1
Statement
Assume the Axiom of Choice. Let be a real strictly stationary process with . Put for . If the canonical shift of the one-sided path law of is ergodic, then almost surely and in . Here strict stationarity on means invariance of every finite-dimensional law under every common integer shift; the one-sided ergodicity convention is that of Stationary process and canonical path shift and Ergodicity relative to an invariant measure.
Facts & Assumptions
Given: AC, a real process whose finite-dimensional laws are invariant under all common integer shifts, , and ergodicity of the canonical shift on the path law of , .
The Axiom of Choice (AC) asserts that every family of nonempty sets has a choice function (The Axiom of Choice).
Strict and weak stationarity for integer-indexed time series: strict stationarity on is invariance of all finite-dimensional laws under common integer shifts.
Stationary process and canonical path shift: a one-sided strictly stationary process has a canonical path law and left shift.
Ergodicity relative to an invariant measure: ergodicity means every strictly invariant event is null or conull for the invariant path law.
Birkhoff limit for a stationary integrable process: assuming AC, a real strictly stationary integrable process has almost-sure and convergence of its averages to the conditional-expectation limit; if its canonical shift is ergodic, that limit is its mean.
Proof
Proof technique: restrict the integer-indexed process to positive times and apply the established one-sided Birkhoff result.
Define for . For any finite indices and shift , [F1] applied to the times gives . Thus is strictly stationary in the one-sided convention of [F2]. Taking shows has the same law as , so it is integrable; the canonical shift is ergodic by the given assumption.
By [F3] the assumed ergodicity is exactly ergodicity of the canonical path shift required by [F4]. AC [A1], integrability from step 1.1, strict stationarity from step 1.1, and that ergodic shift satisfy the hypotheses of [F4]. Hence converges almost surely and in to . Since this average is exactly , the asserted convergence follows. The choice assumption is inherited through [F4]'s conditional-expectation identification; this proof adds no other choice use.
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Sources
- Nicolai Meinshausen, Time Series Analysis: Notes for the course HS 2022, complete 57-page lecture notes (standard reference, not scraped)
- STAT 720 Time Series Analysis, South Carolina course notes by Wang, focused Sections 2.1–2.2 (standard reference, not scraped)