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Ergodic time-series sample means converge almost surely and in L1

Statement

Assume the Axiom of Choice. Let X=(Xt)t∈Z be a real strictly stationary process with E∣X0∣<∞. Put Yk:=Xk+1 for k≥0. If the canonical shift of the one-sided path law of Y is ergodic, then Xˉn:=1n∑t=1nXt⟶E[X0] almost surely and in L1. Here strict stationarity on Z means invariance of every finite-dimensional law under every common integer shift; the one-sided ergodicity convention is that of Stationary process and canonical path shift and Ergodicity relative to an invariant measure.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: AC, a real process X=(Xt)t∈Z whose finite-dimensional laws are invariant under all common integer shifts, E∣X0∣<∞, and ergodicity of the canonical shift on the path law of Yk=Xk+1, k≥0.

[A1]

The Axiom of Choice (AC) asserts that every family of nonempty sets has a choice function (The Axiom of Choice).

[F1]

Strict and weak stationarity for integer-indexed time series: strict stationarity on Z is invariance of all finite-dimensional laws under common integer shifts.

[F2]

Stationary process and canonical path shift: a one-sided strictly stationary process has a canonical path law and left shift.

[F3]

Ergodicity relative to an invariant measure: ergodicity means every strictly invariant event is null or conull for the invariant path law.

[F4]

Birkhoff limit for a stationary integrable process: assuming AC, a real strictly stationary integrable process has almost-sure and L1 convergence of its averages to the conditional-expectation limit; if its canonical shift is ergodic, that limit is its mean.

Proof

Proof technique: restrict the integer-indexed process to positive times and apply the established one-sided Birkhoff result.

1.1F1F2given

Define Yk=Xk+1 for k≥0. For any finite indices 0≤k1<⋯<kr and shift m≥0, [F1] applied to the times k1+1,…,kr+1 gives L(Yk1+m,…,Ykr+m)=L(Yk1,…,Ykr). Thus Y is strictly stationary in the one-sided convention of [F2]. Taking r=1 shows Y0=X1 has the same law as X0, so it is integrable; the canonical shift is ergodic by the given assumption.

2.1A1F3F4step 1.1given∎

By [F3] the assumed ergodicity is exactly ergodicity of the canonical path shift required by [F4]. AC [A1], integrability from step 1.1, strict stationarity from step 1.1, and that ergodic shift satisfy the hypotheses of [F4]. Hence n−1∑k=0n−1Yk converges almost surely and in L1 to E[Y0]=E[X0]. Since this average is exactly n−1∑t=1nXt=Xˉn, the asserted convergence follows. The choice assumption is inherited through [F4]'s conditional-expectation identification; this proof adds no other choice use.

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