How statement and proof provenance work
The first chip identifies the source of the statement or construction; the second identifies the source of its local proof or verification.
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These labels describe origin, not correctness: citations and verification chips remain separate evidence.
Bayes risk and minimax risk
Definition
Let and be measurable parameter and data spaces, with nonempty, and let be a probability kernel, writing for the sampling law (Parameter-measurable statistical models as kernels). Let be a nonempty measurable action space (Measurable spaces and measurable sets). Let be measurable from the product measurable space with sigma-algebra to the extended real line with its Borel sigma-algebra, and assume for all (The product sigma-algebra and its finite iterates, A measurable function between measurable spaces, The extended real line , its order, and the arithmetic that is left undefined, The Borel sigma-algebra on the extended real line). A prior is a probability measure on . The risk function is measurable under these hypotheses by kernel integration (Parameter-measurable statistical models as kernels, Measurability of integration against a kernel). The Bayes risk of under is Its worst-case risk is and the minimax value is These suprema and infima are taken in the extended order on (The extended real line , its order, and the arithmetic that is left undefined); they exist by Every subset of has a least upper bound and a greatest lower bound in , agreeing with the real supremum and infimum on nonempty sets bounded in . The parameter set is nonempty and the rule class is nonempty under the action-space hypothesis, so these are suprema and infima of nonempty sets of nonnegative extended risks. A rule is minimax if its worst-case risk equals this infimum. These definitions make no assertion that a minimizer exists. Nonemptiness of ensures the rule class is nonempty: fixing any gives the constant point-mass rule .
Depends on
- Loss functions and risk
- Measurable spaces and measurable sets
- The product sigma-algebra and its finite iterates
- A measurable function between measurable spaces
- The extended real line $\overline{\mathbb{R}} = \mathbb{R} \cup \{-\infty, +\infty\}$, its order, and the arithmetic that is left undefined
- The Borel sigma-algebra on the extended real line
- Every subset of $\overline{\mathbb{R}}$ has a least upper bound and a greatest lower bound in $\overline{\mathbb{R}}$, agreeing with the real supremum and infimum on nonempty sets bounded in $\mathbb{R}$
- Randomized procedures as probability kernels
- Parameter-measurable statistical models as kernels
- Measurability of integration against a kernel
- Probability measures and probability spaces
Used by
- An open action set need not contain a posterior-risk minimizer Counterexample
- A dense Gaussian mean lower bound by Assouad’s method Example
- A Gaussian two-point lower bound Example
- Randomization lowers worst-case risk under zero-one loss Example
- Finite priors approximate Gaussian-shift Bayes values Lemma
- Finite-prior Bayes envelopes converge under pointwise LAN Lemma
- A posterior-risk minimizer minimizes prior risk Theorem
- Assouad lower bound for a squared-error hypercube Theorem
- Fano’s packing bound with a reference-distribution KL bound Theorem
- Local asymptotic minimax bound Theorem
- Two-point Le Cam lower bound for squared-error risk Theorem
Dependency tree · two levels
37 results within two dependency steps of this one, each drawn at its shortest distance from it. An arrow runs from a result to what uses it, so the chart reads left to right and ends at this result, which carries a heavier outline. Every node is a link to that result. Click elsewhere on the chart to enlarge it.
Sources
- Ryan Martin, Lecture Notes on Advanced Statistical Theory, §§5.3.1–5.3.2, PDF pp. 104–110 (standard reference, not scraped)
- Peter Hoff, Statistical Decision Problems, §5, PDF pp. 11–12 (standard reference, not scraped)